The NBA Conference Semi-finals continue this Monday (AEST) with a couple of Game 4 matchups on the agenda. Following crucial away victories in Game 3, the visiting teams look to extend their series advantages and push their opponents to the brink. Here is the analysis and betting strategy for Monday’s slate.
NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Monday, May 11th 2026
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (5:30 am AEST)
The Philadelphia 76ers remain on their home floor facing an insurmountable 0-3 series deficit after dropping Game 3 to the New York Knicks. Despite the hostile environment at Xfinity Mobile Arena, the Knicks continued their playoff dominance with a 108-94 victory, spearheaded by Jalen Brunson’s 33-point performance. The 76ers are struggling to find consistent offensive rhythm, with Tyrese Maxey playing heavy minutes but failing to convert from the perimeter. While Joel Embiid and Paul George are fighting to keep their season alive, the Knicks’ overwhelming rebounding advantage and defensive intensity have neutralised Philadelphia’s key threats. With New York playing with immense confidence and effort, the logical choice to secure the sweep and advance to the Conference Finals.
Knicks +1.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves (9:30 am AEST)
The San Antonio Spurs travel back to the Target Center holding a 2-1 series lead after a hard-fought 115-108 victory in Game 3. Despite Minnesota benefiting from Anthony Edwards’ spectacular 32-point effort, the Timberwolves could not overcome San Antonio’s attack, led by Victor Wembanyama’s remarkable 39-point and 15-rebound double-double. The Spurs enter Game 4 as 4.5-point favourites, reflecting their ability to consistently dismantle the Timberwolves’ defensive schemes since the upset in Game 1. Minnesota faces a critical test to protect their home court, but they remain vulnerable to San Antonio’s superior size and efficiency in the paint. Given the Spurs’ momentum and Wembanyama’s elite form, backing the visitors to cover the spread and take a commanding series lead presents strong value.
Spurs -4.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
