Baseball America is back with our third MLB mock draft of the year.
The 2026 draft is now only two months away. At the top of the draft, there’s a consistent cluster of about six names teams expect to come off the board within the first 10 picks. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Here are a few key trends to know:
BA subscribers can find our full updated projection of the first 40 picks below, with bonus pools and slot values for each team and pick included, as well.
1. White Sox — Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Bonus Pool: $17,592,100
Slot Value: $11,350,600
There’s been a lot of buzz in recent weeks about the White Sox potentially taking someone not named Roch Cholowsky. The No. 2 player in the class, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson, is the most popular alternative, though the White Sox have seemingly been scouting Florida prep shortstop Jacob Lombard heavily, as well. Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey could round out the group as the last serious name in play for the first pick.
When talking with sources throughout the industry, the Emerson rumors have been viewed in myriad ways, including: 1.) pure smoke, 2.) the White Sox doing their due diligence at the top and 3.) actually pretty likely.
I’m inclined to believe the second explanation at this stage.
Cholowsky still feels like the favorite—he just hit home runs No. 19, 20 and 21 this weekend and is replicating his 2025 Player of the Year campaign—even if Emerson is also being seriously considered. It could also be tricky for the White Sox to try and create huge savings with any player at this pick since each of Cholowsky, Emerson and Lombard are represented by the same agency.
2. Rays — Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS, North Richland Hills, Texas
Bonus Pool: $19,009,300
Slot Value: $10,507,000
The Rays are connected to all of the names mentioned above with the White Sox. Many sources continue to believe they’ll take whoever Chicago doesn’t take of Cholowsky or Emerson. I get mixed feedback on whether or not they’d be into Lackey here, but it’s hard to discount him given his excellent season and defensive value. They’ve scouted Lombard as well, but he feels less likely for this spot.
3. Twins — Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Bonus Pool: $16,929,600
Slot Value: $9,740,100
If the top two players come off the board in the expected order, Lackey feels like the favorite for the Twins. They’ve had a lot of high-level decision makers scouting him throughout the spring, and his defensive upside at catcher could give him one of the highest floors in the class. This is the first spot in which UC Santa Barbara righthander Jackson Flora gets some play.
4. Giants — Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS, Miami
Bonus Pool: $17,350,600
Slot Value: $8,988,400
The Giants created some noise over the weekend when they traded Patrick Bailey to the Guardians for lefthander Matt Wilkinson and the 29th pick in the draft—plus the $3,270,200 in pool money that comes with the pick. Speculation ensued immediately about the team trying to float Roch Cholowsky to this pick.
I mentioned that scenario to a decision-maker with another team. The response?
“Yeah, that is not happening.”
The Giants could very well want to keep the California-native in his home state, but that would require the three teams picking in front of them to play ball and pass on the best player in the class—which seems exceedingly unlikely. The White Sox, Rays and Twins could all offer slot-value deals that would still shatter the current draft bonus record of $9.25 million.
A much more likely scenario is that the Giants can now grab an overslot player with their pick at 29. Someone they like, but who might have been a risk to go in between their original picks at No. 4 here and No. 55 in the second round.
For this first-round pick, I’ve heard the Giants connected to bats. If Lackey falls, he could be the pick. If not, Lombard and fellow high school toolshed Eric Booth Jr. feel like the favorites, probably in that order.
5. Pirates — Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Bonus Pool: $19,130,700
Slot Value: $8,336,500
In contrast with the Giants, I’ve heard college pitching with the Pirates at five. The most obvious name if that’s true is Flora, who feels like he’s in a tier of his own as the top overall college pitcher in the class. Flora’s peripherals are slightly underwhelming for a pitcher in this spot—his 23.7 K-BB% is a bit lighter than is typical for the first college arm drafted—but he’s also allowed just 10 earned runs all season and has an electric pitch mix.
6. Royals — Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla.
Bonus Pool: $15,954,000
Slot Value: $7,746,100
A high school player feels most likely for the Royals. They have been all over Rojas this spring, and he’s pitched excellently. He has terrific arm speed, a big fastball and a chance for a wipeout breaking ball. If Lombard isn’t taken by now, he probably doesn’t last much longer than this, and it’s also hard to rule out Booth and his top-of-the-scale speed.
7. Orioles — Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss.
Bonus Pool: $13,114,000
Slot Value: $7,327,200
Booth represents the final player in a top six group of names who are favorites to make up the top of the draft. It’s difficult to envision him or any of the players mentioned above falling much further—though Rojas as a prep pitcher carries more volatility if Kansas City doesn’t select him. It sounds like Baltimore could like Booth, but if he goes in front, they’re also connected to many of the college hitters who could go in the next few spots, including AJ Gracia and Drew Burress.
8. Athletics — AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia
Bonus Pool: $13,840,300
Slot Value: $6,982,600
At this pick and beyond is where things get dicey and full of speculation. If the Athletics want college pitching, this could be Jackson Flora’s floor. I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a shot on another college pitcher who finishes strong and moves up boards, but there’s not an obvious name for that currently. They could be one of the diminishing realistic landing spots for Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron inside the top 10, or they could grab one of the model-favorites like Drew Burress or AJ Gracia—who has an extremely wide range of potential outcomes.
9. Braves — Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
Bonus Pool: $15,870,800
Slot Value: $6,675,300
Like Gracia, there’s an extremely wide range of opinions on Chris Hacopian, who model teams love and who more traditional teams are more skeptical of. He has excellent ingredients to hit and hit for power, though he comes with some defensive questions that could push him from the infield to the outfield.
10. Rockies — Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
Bonus Pool: $15,557,600
Slot Value: $6,393,100
This could be one of the earliest spots for Helfrick, who is the consensus No. 2 catcher in the class behind Vahn Lackey. He has excellent raw power and the tools to be a high-level defender, but there are some swing-and-miss questions—which is true of most of the college hitters in this class. I could also see the Rockies going with a high school lefthander like Gio Rojas, Brody Bumila or Logan Schmidt.
11. Nationals — Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
Bonus Pool: $12,278,300
Slot Value: $6,133,500
In a class of volatile college hitters, Burress feels like one of the safer profiles to go off the board within the first 15 picks because so many of the model-heavy teams will be high on him. He has three years of excellent production to go with real physical tools and a center field profile. Burress has also hit well over .300 in all three of his seasons—and in the conference schedule—which isn’t something many of this year’s first-round bats can claim.
12. Angels — Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
Bonus Pool: $11,755,400
Slot Value: $5,889,300
Carlon is tremendously physical with one of the bigger arms in this year’s draft class. He’s averaging 96 mph with his fastball and has a potential 70-grade slider that is generally viewed as one of the better secondary pitches in the class. He’s done a nice job handling a starting role for the first time in his career, and his 39% strikeout rate is good for fifth-best among Division I pitchers.
13. Cardinals — Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
Bonus Pool: $16,612,300
Slot Value: $5,661,300
Bell has plenty of up-arrow feedback and is being heavily scouted throughout the middle of the first round. There’s a chance he doesn’t get outside the top 10 picks. While he might lack a plus tool, many teams will have comfort with his profile because he’s a slick-fielding college shortstop who is actually performing. He’s hitting .368/.550/.613 with six home runs and eight doubles.
14. Marlins — Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
Bonus Pool: $11,960,100
Slot Value: $5,444,900
Rose, like Bell, is an up-arrow college hitter who was injured early but has stormed up boards because he’s raking. He’s hitting .408/.493/.650 with five home runs and 19 stolen bases in 31 games. Rose makes a lot of contact, rarely strikes out, has more raw power in the tank than he’s showing and he’s probably also going to get a shot to play center field in pro ball. His teammate, Lucas Moore, just happens to be an excellent defender who has displaced him to left field.
15. Diamondbacks — Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
Bonus Pool: $13,603,100
Slot Value: $5,241,000
Kuhns has pitched like a first-round arm over his last five starts. In that stretch, he’s struck out 56 batters and walked six in 32.2 innings, while nearly shelving his slider and instead pitching heavily off his curveball. He’s coming off a 15-strikeout game against Texas last Friday and could fit anywhere in the middle or back of the first round. Hitterish prep bats always make sense with Arizona, so California two-way player Trent Grindlinger could be an option, too.
16. Rangers — Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
Bonus Pool: $10,219,200
Slot Value: $5,051,900
Flukey is trending down because of a few rough and still-abbreviated outings after his first start back from a rib strain. His collegiate track record and preseason status could give him a reasonably high floor, and teams throughout the first round have been scouting him heavily, so it’s difficult to pin down his realistic range. If Tyler Bell is here he could be an interesting fit, but I’m not sure if that’s the case for Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron.
17. Astros — Sawyer Strosnider, OF, TCU
Bonus Pool: $13,712,700
Slot Value: $4,868,600
Strosnider has better physical tools and more pure upside than nearly every player in the class, but he’s not replicating the pure hitting ability he showed in 2025. He’s hitting .216/.339/.441 in conference play with a 20.2% strikeout rate.
18. Reds — Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Attleboro, Mass.
Bonus Pool: $10,758,500
Slot Value: $4,695,500
Bumila is an outlier of outliers, with very little prep track record but excellent athleticism, size and an 80-grade fastball from the left side. He gets talked about as a potential top 10 talent in the class, but will an organization pull the trigger on this much risk with their first pick? A few stand out as organizations who might do that, but many more could be hoping to land him with a big overslot deal with their second pick, like when Thomas White went to the Marlins at pick No. 35 in 2023.
19. Guardians — Derek Curiel, OF, LSU
Bonus Pool: $9,303,700
Slot Value: $4,530,500
If Cleveland’s 2025 draft is a sign of a shift in priorities, Curiel might not be the best fit. But he does have two traits Cleveland has long prized and targeted: elite contact skills and lefthanded hitting. He doesn’t run like most center fielders, but he has the defensive instincts to stick at the position and be an above-average defender.
20. Red Sox — Jared Grindlinger, LHP/OF, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Bonus Pool: $8,219,200
Slot Value: $4,373,900
The Red Sox are one of the teams most heavily linked to Grindlinger, who has a handful of teams particularly high on his hitting upside thanks to his youth and contact skills. Boston has also spent plenty of draft capital on lefthanded-hitting Californians in recent years.
21. Padres — Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Bonus Pool: $9,479,000
Slot Value: $4,224,700
Add Lebron’s name to a long list of struggling players who are difficult to pinpoint. His pure talent and athleticism could warrant a top 10 overall selection, but his performance this spring, as well as previous years in conference play, is making that hard to project. There are plenty of teams who didn’t think Lebron would ever get to them before the season started. Now they’re going to grapple with whether or not they’d take a shot on his toolset if he falls to them. Perhaps the Padres are one of them.
22. Tigers — Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga.
Bonus Pool: $9,165,100
Slot Value: $4,082,700
Condon and Grindlinger are two of the most popular high school hitters after the big three (Emerson, Lombard, Booth) come off the board. Condon has had a strong spring, and teams seem to have a lot of comfort in his track record, contact skills, center field profile and plus speed. Detroit is generally linked to tons of high school hitters.
23. Cubs — Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California
Bonus Pool: $9,644,100
Slot Value: $3,947,600
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Edwards come off the board 10 or more picks ahead of this. He’s struck out 10 or more batters in five straight starts, leads the country with 143 strikeouts and with a 44.9% strikeout rate and has generally been one of the most consistent starters in college baseball.
24. Mariners — Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA
Bonus Pool: $8,218,200
Slot Value: $3,818,700
Several weeks ago, it would have seemed unlikely that Reddemann would make it this far down the board. But he hasn’t pitched since April 17, which will create more volatility. If he returns to the mound and looks the same, he easily fits in the 10-20 range, and he was even being considered by some teams as a backup option inside the first 10 picks. Reddemann’s command is among the best in the class.
25. Brewers — Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas
Bonus Pool: $8,042,900
Slot Value: $3,696,000
Robbins’ name never seems to surface at the top of the college outfield demographic, despite the fact that his production has been excellent this spring. He’s hitting .361/.449/.728 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases, and he’s also been great in conference play. There are questions about his center field profile, and some chase and swing-and-miss tendencies that might not be fully captured in his performance.
26. Braves — Cade Townsend, RHP, Ole Miss
Bonus Pool: $15,870,800
Slot Value: $3,578,800
Townsend could wind up being the second college righty off the board, but he’s coming off of one of his worst starts of the season against Texas A&M. He has a power arm with a big fastball and a deep mix of secondaries, but he will come with reliever questions and hasn’t pitched consistently deep into games. The Braves have been heavily tied to him.
27. Mets — Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
Bonus Pool: $6,730,900
Slot Value: $3,466,500
After a strong non-conference slate, Reese was viewed as a potential top 10 pick because of his hit/power combination. He cooled off in conference play and has seen his stock slide because of it, but it looks like he’s heating up again. Last weekend against Auburn, he went 8-for-14 with a home run and two doubles. On the season, he’s hitting .335/.429/.704 with 18 home runs and 21 doubles.
28. Astros — Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Bonus Pool: $13,712,700
Slot Value: $3,363,600
Every team will be hoping to get more out of Peterson’s excellent pure stuff in pro ball. He comes with control questions and has essentially replicated his 2025 season in two fewer starts, with a 4.28 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate through 13 starts and 67.1 innings. He could have three plus pitches.
29. Giants — Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS, Pomona, Calif.
Bonus Pool: $17,350,600
Slot Value: $3,270,200
Now that the Giants have the 29th-overall pick and the fifth-largest bonus pool in the class, they have a chance to get a second first-round talent. The easiest profiles to slide down the board on overslot deals are high school pitchers. That happens to be one of the strengths of the 2026 class, and could lead to the Giants getting an upside player like Schmidt, who has pitched well this spring and could fit anywhere in the 10-30 range based on talent.
30. Royals — Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M
Bonus Pool: $15,954,000
Slot Value: $3,190,500
Sorrell has a profile that should be more appealing to traditional teams than model-driven clubs. His power/speed combination is loud, his performance over the last two years is great and he also has a chance to be an everyday center fielder. The risk comes with his career 25% strikeout rate and underlying contact skills.
31. Diamondbacks — Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C.
Bonus Pool: $13,603,100
Slot Value: $3,118,300
Bolemon is one of the most polished pitchers in this class, and he entered the season as the top prep arm in the class. He’s been more up-and-down throughout the spring, but should still have plenty of suitors throughout the comp range and into the second as an overslot candidate.
32. Cardinals — Luke Williams, SS/OF, Franklin Regional HS, Murrysville, Penn.
Bonus Pool: $16,612,300
Slot Value: $3,044,600
The Cardinals have three extra picks and the sixth-largest bonus pool in the class. Because of that, they should be in a position to do some damage with one or multiple significant overslot deals. They also get tied to basically every helium high school hitter who will come with a high price tag or might have some risk that other teams might be unable or unwilling to tolerate. Williams is a terrific athlete with 70-grade speed and a big arm.
33. Rays — Cole Prosek, SS/C, Magnolia Heights HS, Senatobia, Miss.
Bonus Pool: $19,009,300
Slot Value: $2,970,200
Prosek could have the hitting chops to go inside the first 30 picks, and he’s a compelling catcher conversion candidate whose hit/power combo gets even more exciting if he can find a way to stick there.
34. Pirates — Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS, Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.
Bonus Pool: $19,130,700
Slot Value: $2,897,400
Borthwick is having one of the most impressive all-around high school seasons in the country as a righthander, shortstop and hitter. His pure upside is best on the mound, where he’s been up to 100 mph and has a potential plus slider. He’s struck out 110 batters in 60.2 innings with South Walton High and has allowed just one earned run.
35. Yankees — Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook (N.Y.) HS
Bonus Pool: $7,342,800
Slot Value: $2,826,700
Many scouts view Ruiz as the best defensive shortstop in this year’s class. He’s a slick fielder and a switch-hitter who has shown more strength and raw power this spring, though he does profile as a hit-over-power offensive player who can make plenty of contact.
36. Phillies — Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
Bonus Pool: $7,773,000
Slot Value: $2,758,800
Like basically all of the pitchers mentioned in this mock outside of Flora, Dietz has a chance to go as high as the early teens depending on how he pitches down the stretch. He’s currently leading the SEC with 108 strikeouts and owns a 3.22 ERA over 13 starts and 72.2 innings—far and away a career high—with a 35.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate.
37. Rockies — Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech
Bonus Pool: $15,557,600
Slot Value: $2,696,700
Advincula is light on physical tools but is excellent with the bat in his hands. He’s one of the national leaders in hitting and owns a .432/.504/.617 slash line with a career-best eight home runs. He also has a career strikeout rate of just 8.0%.
38. Rockies — Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
Bonus Pool: $15,557,600
Slot Value: $2,633,100
Jackson has a rare power/speed combination for a catcher and is one of just two players with more than 20 home runs and 20 steals this season. Teams highest on his defense and pure hitting ability might consider him with their first picks.
39. Blue Jays — Sean Duncan, LHP, Terry Fox Secondary HS, Port Coquitlam, B.C.
Bonus Pool: $5,543,100
Slot Value: $2,571,700
Duncan has plenty of starter traits with great feel to pitch, a fastball up to 95 mph from the left side and feel to land multiple quality secondaries. He’s getting some buzz inside the first 30 picks, so he might not even make it to this spot.
40. Dodgers — Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
Bonus Pool: $3,951,900
Slot Value: $2,504,200
Becker’s profile isn’t too different from Jarren Advincula’s. Both are college middle infielders who might wind up playing second base and lack high-end physical tools, but they have a knack for the barrel and a long track record of hitting.