Ivan Cleary’s departure after the 2027 season could see the start of the decline for the Panthers dynasty as the club scrambles to keep its star squad together under Peter Wallace.
Cleary shocked the rugby league world by announcing he will not extend his deal beyond 2027, with Wallace taking over as head coach in 2028 amid a succession plan.
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But with a number of stars including Nathan Cleary coming off-contract, it remains to be see if Wallace will have the roster for Penrith to continue competing for premierships in 2028 and beyond.
“Will the Penrith Panthers remain a powerhouse?” Braith Anasta asked on NRL 360.
The Daily Telegraph’s Brent Read feels it all depends if the other Cleary follows his dad out the door.
“I think it all depends on Nathan Cleary, if they keep Nathan, that ensures they compete every year because he is that good a footballer,” Read said.
However, The Courier Mail’s Peter Badel is adamant Cleary’s exit will signal the start of the end of the Panthers dynasty.
“I think this is the start of the decline for Penrith,” Badel said.
“Every great club has the glory years, but eventually the collapse comes and it is unsustainable to think that Penrith can win another seven or eight comps in this generation in the salary cap equalisation era.”
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Badel explained the money being talked about for Nathan Cleary to join the PNG Chiefs is an offer too hard to refuse.
“The thing that worries me now is they are going to lose one Cleary, but they could lose another Cleary,” Badel said.
“And I think this could be the catalyst for Nathan Cleary to leave the club. I know he is contracted for another year, but he is a free agent in November.
“And the things I am hearing about PNG, they are prepared to offer him $1.5m a season tax free. They are ready to strike and the minute he becomes a free agent they will make him an offer.
“On top of that you have got third party opportunities in PNG, he could make $3 million a season in PNG per year. How do you knock that back?”
Badel also has fears for new coach Wallace, who has been handed the toughest job in the NRL to follow Cleary.
“I think the dynasty is over and when Ivan leaves they are in trouble,” Badel said.
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“It is a huge ask for Peter Wallace. It is like batting after Bradman, given what Ivan Cleary has done and I just think it is a massive ask and Nathan Cleary will come to the end of his career and if he leaves I think it will be the domino effect, so I think Walace has got his work cut out for him.”
Anasta pointed out that Cleary junior may look to go elsewhere in the future now that his partnership with his dad is coming to an end.
“They’ve always been a partnership,” Anasta said.
“They’ve been a partnership for a long time. They’ve had a lot of success together, so Nathan’s next move is a critical one for Penrith or for someone else.”
Wallace could have the toughest challenge in the NRL in 2028, if he takes over from arguably the greatest coach of the NRL era, with his squad potentially decimated by departures and no Nathan Cleary.
“It’s massive for Penrith,” Read said.
“It’s huge. If you’re Peter Wallace and you’re taking over that job in 2028 you want Nathan Cleary there because your job becomes so much more difficult if Nathan Cleary isn’t in your playing ranks because it leaves a gigantic hole.
“If Peter Wallace has Nathan Cleary there he starts on the front foot. If he hasn’t got him his job becomes almost insurmountable.”
The timing of Cleary’s decision to announce he will leave 18 months out was designed to give the players clarity for the future, but Anasta warned it has the potential to backfire.
“They were hoping that maybe the decision by Ivan would help those players that are off contract November 1, but really the decision about Nathan is probably more important for those players whether they stay there or not,” Anasta said.
Broncos legend Gorden Tallis agreed Nathan Cleary is the primary focus for the Panthers now that Ivan is leaving.
“Now absolutely, I think that’s the biggest decision that the club makes,” Tallis said of Cleary junior’s contract call.
“I think Isaaah Yeo might be at the end of it. He might have maybe one more year.
“We’re hearing Liam Martin might be on the move To’o might be on the move, so Nathan Cleary becomes probably the club’s most important signing moving forward.”
However, Read warned the Panthers will lose a number of players to the riches of PNG, but they can’t afford for one of them to be Cleary.
“I think some of those players will go, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that,” Read said.
“I imagine Brian To’o will go. It would not shock me if To’o, Liam Martin and Mitch Kenny goes. I think they are going to lose players. They know that.”
Original story published by Fox Sports and reproduced with permission.
Originally published as Penrith Panthers could be about to ‘collapse’ following Cleary exit