The United States is facing an international tourism problem and industry bodies are warning it could get a lot worse if proposed changes to the ESTA application are implemented, which could make it mandatory for Australian tourists to disclose five years of social media history.
The latest travel data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was released this week and while the overall number of Australians travelling overseas remains strong, outbound travel specifically to the US fell 5.5 per cent for the year to March 2026.
It was the only destination in Australians’ top 10 most visited countries to see a decline.
When the previous batch of statistics was released last month, showing a smaller drop of 4.8 per cent in the year to February, the Australian Travel Industry Association (ATIA) said it evidenced a “seismic shift” in where Aussies want to travel – with tourists turning away from America and towards Asia.
ATIA chief executive Dean Long said the latest numbers support this further.
“Australians haven’t turned away from travel – they’ve turned toward Asia, and the numbers are making that impossible to ignore,” Mr Long told news.com.au.
“Japan up 14.4 per cent, Vietnam up 17 per cent, China up 16.5 per cent. The outbound total hit 12.7 million trips for the year. This is not a story about Australians staying home.
“The US is the one market bucking that trend. Down 5.5 per cent for the year to March — and that’s a steeper decline than we saw to February.
“Whether that’s cost, routing, or something else entirely, the data doesn’t tell us. What it does tell us is that Asia-Pacific is where Australians want to be right now, and in many cases it’s turning out to be the whole trip rather than just the way there.”
One of the likely factors is the cost of travelling to the US being high at the moment compared to shorter haul destinations across Asia, while another is controversial trade and entry policies.
Some travellers have been spooked by “enhanced vetting” of tourists on arrival in the US and cases of travellers being denied entry (and at times, strip searched and thrown in prison). The more intense airport checks have involved inspections of emails, text messages or social media accounts.
Tourism industry fighting against ESTA changes
Globally, 80 million more people travelled internationally in 2025 compared to 2024, but US foreign visitor numbers still dropped 5.5 per cent and international visitor spending in the country fell 4.6 per cent, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
While North America was the slowest-growing region globally, Asia-Pacific was the fastest.
WTTC president Gloria Guevara said in April that the US had to take action to keep its title as the largest travel and tourism market in the world.
“To avoid losing its leadership position the US must invest in promoting its attractiveness, both in international markets and during the summer of football; change perception and position the US as a welcoming destination; and grow international visitor spend, encouraging stopovers and new experiences,” Ms Guevara said.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, an event held every four years, will be jointly hosted by sixteen cities across the US, Mexico and Canada in June and July – with 11 of the cities in the US.
But also mid-year, if approved, there could be changes to Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) applications.
Many Australians currently use this system to travel to the US as an ESTA allows travel for tourism or business up to 90 days.
In April, nearly 400 US Travel Association members and industry advocates met with members of Congress in Washington, D.C. to advocate for policy changes. One of their top three priorities was halting proposed changes to the ESTA application.
The US Travel Association has described the effect the new policy could have on travel as “chilling”.
“Visa Waiver Program travellers come here to do deals with American businesses, buy American products and experience the beauty of our great nation,” the non-profit organisation representing the country’s $1.3 trillion travel industry said in a statement in December.
“If we get this policy wrong, millions of travellers could take their business and the billions of dollars they spend elsewhere, only making America weaker.”
A World Travel & Tourism Council analysis in January forecasted 4.7 million fewer international arrivals and a possible $US15.7 billion ($A21.7 billion) drop in visitor spending if the changes went ahead.
A WTTC survey, which included about 500 interviews with Australian travellers among other ESTA countries, found around one-third of respondents (34 per cent) would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes were introduced.
US President Donald Trump has said he is not concerned about a steep drop-off in tourism and that the proposal is about safety and security.
US tourism leaders determined to keep Aussies coming back
Brand USA, which promotes international tourism to the US, told news.com.au Australia and New Zealand were “one of the most vital” international markets for the US.
“We are doing all we can to quell concerns and to inspire Australian visitation to the United States,” Brand USA chief communications officer Chris Heywood told news.com.au.
“We will be looking at ways to reassure visitors and ensure they have all the information they need for their next visit.”
One of their messages is that proposed changes to the ESTA application are under review and currently not in effect.
“As always we recommend common sense approach. Upon arrival by land, air, or sea, you will be processed by US Customs and Border Protection officers,” Mr Heywood said.
“Be ready to present your passport, visa (if required), and valid travel documents, and answer questions about the purpose and duration of your trip. Ensure your travel documents are valid and approved before departing for the United States.”
Mr Heywood pointed to big events this year like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, America’s 250th birthday on July 4 and Route 66’s Centennial on November 11 as opportunities to lure in visitors.
Los Angeles, which relies on Australian visitors as its second biggest international source market behind China, is working hard to keep Aussies coming back.
Qantas, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines all fly direct from Australia to Los Angeles, making it a popular gateway to the US.
Los Angeles Tourism and Convention Board chief executive Adam Burke told news.com.au he wants visitors to know that everyone is welcome in their city.
“As one of the world’s most diverse and inclusive communities that is home to people from over 140 countries, we pride ourselves on the warm welcome that makes visitors feel instantly at home,” he said.
And while Mr Burke recognises declining international traveller sentiment toward the US is a significant challenge and he is among industry leaders fighting against the ESTA proposal, he remains positive.
“While we are certainly faced with the same challenges as other US destinations,
including the increased cost of living in Australia, the fluctuating exchange rate, geo-
political considerations and increased competition from other destinations – there is
also a lot of optimism and positivity as a result of the new world-class attractions and
global sporting events coming to Los Angeles, with the number of visitors from Australia
continuing to increase year over year,” he said, adding that in particular the demand for luxury experiences has grown among Aussies.
Los Angeles will host eight of the 11 World Cup matches in the US, and has developed a 39-day activity calendar for football fans.
Additionally, the first-ever NFL regular-season game will be played in Australia this September when the LA Rams take on the San Francisco 49ers at the MCG.
“We hope that the visit will inspire Aussies to catch an American football game next time they are in LA,” Mr Burke added.
Los Angeles has two NFL teams, the Rams and Chargers, that call the city’s SoFi Stadium home. That stadium will also host the opening and closing ceremony of the Summer Olympics in 2028.
Los Angeles is hoping for an increase in visitation as Aussie travellers steer clear of the Middle East.
“We have heard from trade partners that demand for airline bookings from Australia to Europe via LAX are increasing in popularity due to travellers choosing to avoid the Middle East, so we will continue to explore ways to encourage stopovers,” Mr Burke said.
The “City of Angels” is also hoping to cash in on the massive increase in Australians flying overseas for cruises.
More Aussies are cruising than ever before, with the number of Australians who cruised outside the local region jumping by a massive 17 per cent in 2025.
“We know that Australians enjoy cruising, so the fly-cruise segment is one that we will keep an eye on,” Mr Burke said.
“The Port of Los Angeles is undergoing a major cruise expansion, with a brand-new Outer Harbour Cruise Terminal in development, along with the redevelopment of the existing World Cruise Center to accommodate the next generation of ships. Once completed, LA will be well positioned as the ‘West-Coast Gateway for Cruising.’”