One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has declared a stunning new poll “corroborates” a broader pattern of what Australian voters expect of Pauline Hanson’s minor party.
The poll put One Nation winning a whopping 59 seats if a federal election were held today, wiping out key seats for Labor and the Coalition.
Research from Redbridge Group and Accent Research shows the result would force Labor into a minority government and take out the Coalition in all but three states and territories, representing a significant shift towards the surging minor party.
According to the modelling, One Nation would win between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53 as it would swipe 37 seats off the Coalition and 16 seats off Labor.
The biggest surge would be in Queensland, where the party could win up to 21 seats – 18 of which have a win probability of 90 per cent or higher.
The Coalition would be left with between seven and 21 seats.
Liberal MP Andrew Hastie would have a 100 per cent chance of losing his Perth seat of Canning, and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor a 98 per cent chance of losing his seat of Hume, on the outskirts of southwestern Sydney, to a One Nation candidate.
The worst-case simulation shows the Coalition would be left with just seven seats across NSW, Victoria and the Northern Territory, meaning their key strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia would be lost. They would also not retain seats in South Australia and Tasmania.
Meanwhile, the Nationals would have no MPs left, wiping them out of the lower house entirely.
The poll sampled more than 6,000 voters between April 29 and May 14, with most of the research being conducted before the May 12 federal budget.
Mr Joyce told SkyNews.com.au that the poll was not an election result but an “indication” of what Australian voters expect of One Nation.
“It’s a poll that is indicative, not the fact, yet it corroborates what other polls have said and what the recent Farrer by-election said,” Mr Joyce told SkyNews.com.au.
“It is an incredible responsibility that is falling more and more onto our shoulders.
“I won’t say the poll is the election, it’s not, but it’s an indication of the job expected of us and we intend to do it.”
Ms Hanson told the Australian Financial Review the polling was reflective of the increasing regard for One Nation as a mainstream political party, especially after David Farley’s historic win for the party in the Farrer by-election.
“(Voters) now have a licence to vote for One Nation, it’s not a wasted vote,” she said.
Redbridge director Tony Barry said the One Nation surge would prove a sticking point for Labor’s mission to achieve a majority government at the next election.
“We still don’t know whether One Nation’s vote will run up against some form of a ceiling and where its floor is, but the mood sentiment holding up their vote is underpinned by economic anxiety and frustration with the current political model, which could be enduring,” he told the AFR.
The latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov polling, conducted from May 12–19, also found Labor had slumped to a near-historic low of 28 per cent on the primary vote, while the federal opposition languished at a dismal 23 per cent.
The results point to a dramatically changing political landscape, with Labor and the Coalition both recording historically weak levels of support.
The polling showed One Nation could potentially form the official opposition and replace one of the major parties for the first time ever.