One week until the Vuelta a Espana 2025 takes off, and there is only name mentioned as favourite to win the race – Jonas Vingegaard. In absence of his rival Tadej Pogacar, the 28-year-old Dane has a golden opportunity to add a third Grand Tour title to his palmares (after two Tour de France victories). In fact, it would be a massive upset if anyone was to outclimb the Visma rider.”Everyone agrees that Vingegaard is the big favorite,” former professional Emil Vinjebo notes for Ekstra Bladet. “So you could easily say that it’s a disappointment if he doesn’t win. But if he’s had a bad luck and fought his way through as number three, that’s still great. But if it goes as the preacher preaches, it would be a disappointment if he doesn’t win.”
Vinjebo points out that his compatriot has only the greatest expectations of himself too. “I think he would be disappointed if he didn’t win the Vuelta. He was disappointed not to win the Tour, so I also think he would be disappointed if he came in second or third. He’s only there to win. That’s why he’s starting.”
“It’s hard to say how great he will be. He also had some bad days in the Tour, and he shouldn’t have too many of those in the Vuelta, because then there are too many other good cyclists – for example, if João Almeida and Juan Ayuso find their top level.”
It’s a widely accepted perception that Vingegaard shines more than elsewhere on really long mountain passes. However Vuelta doesn’t offer too many of those. Instead, it’s a mix of unipuerto stages with steep walls where anything may happen. Even the likes of Joao Almeida could catch Vingegaard off guard.
“The route is not a Jonas Vingegaard route by definition. There are lots of vertical meters, but the climbs are often shorter. He will probably still be the best, but you could make a route that suits him even better.”
“It’s really hard to say how the race will develop,” TV 2 expert Christian Moberg feels like. “There are many ways to gain or lose time, so you have to be careful not to talk about disappointments and huge successes before the race is over. But statistically, he must be the biggest favorite.”