Top spot in the World Rugby rankings is up for grabs this weekend in the Rugby Championship as the Springboks could concede the number one ranking to the All Blacks or Ireland.
The opening round of the tournament sees South Africa host Australia at the iconic Ellis Park Stadium in Johannesburg on Saturday, with the later kick-off seeing Argentina host the All Blacks in Córdoba.
With the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw taking place after the November internationals later this year, the world rankings are particularly important for the respective nations in terms of seedings.
With the help of World Rugby, we take a look at the weekend’s permutations.
Rankings permutations
Rassie Erasmus’ men’s standing at the summit of the rankings is under threat as they are likely to concede top spot in the event of a defeat or a draw to Australia in their first game of their title defence.
A stalemate in Johannesburg would mean that the All Blacks would have to beat Argentina later in the day to return to the summit for the first time since November 2021. If the Wallabies claim an upset, then a draw will be enough for New Zealand to leapfrog the Springboks.
Third-placed Ireland are not in action this weekend but can still benefit from the opening round of the Rugby Championship results if there are upsets.
In the unlikely event that both South Africa and New Zealand lose by more than 15 points. If only one of these were to happen, Ireland would still climb a place to second above that beaten side.
A victory by any margin for the Boks will see them retain their number one ranking, despite the fact that the world champions are unable to improve their rating due to the 10.70 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
This is because New Zealand can only gain a maximum of 0.45 rating points for beating lower-ranked Argentina, and they currently trail South Africa by 0.72 points.
There are possible movements elsewhere in the rankings as Argentina will oust Australia from sixth place – which would be enough for a Band 1 place come the RWC 2027 draw in December – if Australia are beaten and they avoid defeat against New Zealand. A draw for Australia away to the world champions would have the same impact if Los Pumas are victorious over New Zealand for the first time on home soil.
Argentina cannot fall any lower than seventh this weekend, even with a heavy loss to New Zealand.
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SOUTH AFRICA (1) 92.78 v AUSTRALIA (6) 82.08
South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 92.78, Australia 82.08 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 92.78, Australia 82.08 (No change)
Draw – South Africa 91.78, Australia 83.08
Australia win by 15 points or less – South Africa 90.78, Australia 84.08
Australia win by more than 15 points – South Africa 89.78, Australia 85.08
ARGENTINA (7) 82.05 v NEW ZEALAND (2) 92.06
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Argentina 83.75, New Zealand 90.36
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Argentina 84.60, New Zealand 89.51
Draw – Argentina 82.75, New Zealand 91.36
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Argentina 81.75, New Zealand 92.36
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Argentina 81.60, New Zealand 92.51
Latest World Rugby rankings
As of 15/08/2025
1 South Africa 92.78
2 New Zealand 92.06
3 Ireland 89.83
4 France 87.82
5 England 87.64
6 Australia 82.08
7 Argentina 82.05
8 Scotland 81.57
9 Fiji 80.50
10 Italy 77.77
11 Georgia 74.69
12 Wales 74.05
13 Samoa 72.48
14 Japan 72.29
15 Spain 69.12
16 USA 68.45
17 Uruguay 67.52
18 Portugal 66.44
19 Tonga 65.46
20 Chile 63.83