South Africa will begin their defence of The Rugby Championship this Saturday when they host a resurgent Wallabies team at Ellis Park in Johannesburg.

Fresh off salvaging some pride with a win over the British and Irish Lions in the third test, having narrowly lost the opening two fixtures, the Wallabies enter the match as heavy underdogs.

On the other side, questions remain about the Springboks’ form, having faced weaker opposition in July when they host Italy twice and Georgia once. Against a second-string Azzurri, the Boks at times looked pedestrian as they struggled to put them away in the first test.

Growing throughout the series, South Africa found some rhythm without ever quite hitting top form. This has led to questions as to whether the Boks are undercooked coming into The Rugby Championship, a narrative they will be keen to dispel on Saturday.

Team News

Chasing history as the first Springbok team to win back-to-back Rugby Championships, Rassie Erasmus has named a strong team to face Joe Schmidt’s team.

Naming 18 Rugby World Cup winners in his matchday-23, Erasmus has backed experience, calling up only three players in Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Edwill van der Merwe, and Asenathi Ntlabakanye, who have fewer than six Test caps.

The Boks are aiming for a fifth consecutive win over the Wallabies, their longest such run in over 50 years. Eben Etzebeth will earn his 134th cap, joining Wales’ Gethin Jenkins in 10th on the all-time men’s list. Siya Kolisi captains from No. 8, alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit and Marco van Staden in the loose trio. Lood de Jager partners Etzebeth in the second row, with Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, and Wilco Louw in the front row.

The backline features Aphelele Fassi at fullback, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Van der Merwe on the wings, Jesse Kriel and Andre Esterhuizen in midfield, and Manie Libbok and Grant Williams at halfback. Erasmus noted the squad reflects ongoing experimentation but is confident in its readiness for Australia. Damian de Allende is out with a back injury, while Cheslin Kolbe was rested. Australia arrives with momentum after strong showings against the British & Irish Lions, but South Africa remains unbeaten against them at Ellis Park.

Conversely, the Wallabies have arrived in South Africa short of a few key contributors, most notably their first two options at flyhalf in Noah Lolesio and Tom Lynagh. In the pack, standout backrow Rob Valetini is also absent.

Replacing the two young flyhalves will be veteran James O’Connor, whose international rugby return headlines Australia’s squad. The 35-year-old is the only change to the starting XV that beat the British & Irish Lions 22-12. O’Connor, last capped in 2022, has earned a recall after a standout season with the Crusaders. Despite expectations that Ben Donaldson would retain the No. 10 jersey, he has been left out entirely, with O’Connor set to partner veteran halfback Nic White, who reversed his retirement after Jake Gordon’s injury.

Loose forward Nick Champion de Crespigny joins the bench in place of Donaldson, with Australia opting for a 6-2 forwards-to-backs split, signalling a likely physical contest. South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus may mirror that strategy by replacing utility back Canan Moodie with lock RG Snyman. Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt praised his squad’s preparation at altitude, acknowledging the formidable challenge of playing South Africa at Ellis Park, where Australia last won in 1963. Additionally, the Wallabies will be aiming to snap a four-game losing streak to the Springboks.

Where The Match Will Be Won

The first scrum will set the tone in this fixture, South Africa will look to lay down a marker early.

Central to the Wallabies sustaining a foothold in the match will be how the Wallabies front row, and in particular James Slipper, deals with this pressure. Against the Lions, Slipper found the going tough against Tadhg Furlong throughout the series, but showed significant improvement in the third test. Should he struggle early against the power of the Bok pack, expect Schmidt to make an early change with the dynamic Angus Bell on the bench.

Linking up with Slipper in the front row for the third test was Taniela ‘The Tongan Thor’ Tupou. Immediately making his presence felt, Tupou got to grips with Andrew Porter and solidified the tighthead position. Now staring down arguably the toughest scrummaging challenge in test rugby when he faces Ox Nche, Tupou has an opportunity to further solidify himself as the Wallabies’ undisputed best tighthead.

Unlike other sides in world rugby, the Boks will back themselves to not only scrummage for clean ball but to earn penalties. When their pack gets rumbling, they will go for the jugular and will milk out penalties.

Should the Wallabies not handle this early, then they could find themselves pinned deep in their own territory and facing wave after wave of big-time ball carriers.

Prediction

Rarely do the bookies get something wrong, and in this instance, they have backed the Boks to win comfortably.

Although the Wallabies showed significant improvement in the third test against the Lions, they were facing a side that had switched off mentally, having already claimed the series.

Facing a Springbok side who are hunting history and know that the major challenges that lie ahead won’t matter if they don’t take care of business in the first two rounds. The Wallabies will simply be facing an altogether different challenge in Johannesburg.

This being said, if any coach is capable of picking holes in previously unseen weaknesses, it is Joe Schmidt, so the Wallabies will certainly be competitive.

Across eighty minutes, the Springbok power game should prove to be too much for their visitors, and as such, we are backing them to claim a bonus point win to start their campaign. South Africa by 15.

Springbok lineup

Starting XV: 15 Aphelele Fassi; 14 Edwill van der Merwe; 13 Jesse Kriel; 12 Andre Esterhuizen; 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse; 10 Manie Libbok; 9 Grant Williams; 8 Siya Kolisi (captain); 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit; 6 Marco van Staden; 5 Lood de Jager; 4 Eben Etzebeth; 3 Wilco Louw; 2 Malcolm Marx; 1 Ox Nche.

Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi; 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels; 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye; 19 Franco Mostert; 20 Kwagga Smith; 21 Cobus Reinach; 22 Canan Moodie; 23 Damian Willemse.

South Africa has won 52 of 95 matches against Australia, losing 40 and drawing three. The Boks’ biggest win came in 2008, a 53-8 result at Ellis Park.

Wallabies Lineup

15. Tom Wright, 14. Max Jorgensen, 13. Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii, 12. Len Ikitau, 11. Dylan Pietsch, 10. James O’Connor, 9. Nic White; 8. Harry Wilson (capt), 7. Fraser McReight, 6. Tom Hooper; 5. Will Skelton, 4. Nick Frost, 3. Taniela Tupou, 2. Billy Pollard, 1. James Slipper.

Replacements: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Angus Bell, 18. Zane Nonggorr, 19. Jeremy Williams, 20. Langi Gleeson, 21. Nick Champion de Crespigny, 22. Tate McDermott, 23. Andrew Kellaway.

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