The wait is finally over. No, I don’t mean the release of “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which is still an excruciating two months away. The wait is over for “A.J. Brown Traded to the Patriots Day.” While we all expected this outcome, the fantasy football impact is still worth reviewing.
What this means for the Patriots
Drake Maye: Since starting his first game, Maye’s ranks among all quarterbacks on passes 20+ air yards (min. 500 attempts total):
Expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB): 2nd, 1.22
Touchdown per attempt (TD/Att): 2nd, 22.5%
Completion percentage (Comp%): 4th, 42.5%
Touchdown per interception (TD/INT): 2nd, 4.5
For 2025 only:
EPA/DB: 2nd, 1.48
TD/Att: 4th, 21.7%
Comp%: 3rd, 47.8%
TD/INT: 2nd, 5.0
A.J. Brown: As for Brown, his ranks among receivers since arriving in Philadelphia (min. 20 targets of 20+ air yards) are:
EPA per target (EPA/Tgt): 10th, 1.06
Reception percentage (Rec%): 9th, 42.3%
Touchdown per target (TD/Tgt): 10th, 15.4%
For 2024-25 with Saquon Barkley in town (for a small offensive shift):
EPA/Tgt: 10th, 1.14
Rec%: 10th, 47.4%
TD/Tgt: 17th, 15.8%
I throw those numbers out to show what we already know: Brown is a great big-play option. Maye has already established himself as one of the best downfield quarterbacks. In his nearly two seasons, Maye’s top downfield option has been Kayshon Boutte (35.4 TmTGT%) followed by Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas. Not one holds a candle to Brown, and yet, Maye put up top-notch numbers.
Adding a true alpha wideout, who’s also a terrific touchdown/end-zone threat, will help Maye and the entire Patriots offense. Don’t forget, the Pats already added Romeo Doubs in free agency, giving them a one-two punch at wide receiver that can rival most teams. While I expect the Patriots to still have a more balanced run/pass approach than most teams, repeating last season’s pass-rate mark (52.7% — tied for sixth-lowest) is not something I’d predict. I’d look for something more around a 55/45 split, which not only helps Maye avoid any regression in fantasy, but it actually improves his argument to be alongside Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson as the top QB off the board in fantasy drafts.
With Brown, at worst he should be the same backend WR1 in fantasy. There is room for improvement, of course, with Brown again reaching 15 fantasy points per game (FPPG) plausible, giving him a top-5 WR ceiling. Additionally, there is an arguable downtick for running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, but the offense’s effectiveness can offset that to alleviate concerns. The main downgrade comes for any wideout after Brown and Doubs, and it’s a ding to Hunter Henry’s value, pushing him to the lower-end TE2 realm. But for fantasy purposes, Doubs should be a WR4 with WR3 upside, with Henderson and Stevenson in the low-RB2/high-RB3 conversation.
What this means for the Eagles
We knew this was coming, and so did the Eagles, hence the Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers draft picks. And before we get to the value fallouts, let’s address the topic of Jalen Hurts throwing over the middle … again. Yes, he’s ranked near the very bottom in frequency, but there is a difference between “doesn’t” and “can’t.” And let me tell you, he CAN.
Let’s go last 5 years (min 100)
– 5.2 OffTGT% (T-4th lowest)
– 9.6 TD/ATT% (1st — LJax 9.1, 2nd)
– 77.4 Comp% (8th — Allen 74.2, Brady 74.1, Herbert 74.1, Mahomes 70.5, etc)
Is Hurts a better passer outside? Yes. Is he more than capable over the middle? Also, Yes.
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) April 27, 2026
The Eagles’ offensive style/play-calling schemed a lot to the outside and deep. When you have someone like the aforementioned Brown, plus DeVonta Smith, why wouldn’t you go that route? Now, the scheming will change with Sean Mannion calling plays. He brings a Sean McVay/Matt LaFleur style, including more pre-snap movement and layered play-action passing (we can assume, given history and reports).
For Hurts, we can hope for a mix of his 2022-23 passing marks (around 3,800 yards and 22-23 touchdowns) with a bounce-back rushing line. Even somewhere between his down 2025 and the terrific 2023-24 seasons would be a win (500+ rushing yards and 10-11 rushing touchdowns). That would help Hurts return to his top-five fantasy days. Obviously, the risk is Hurts slowly adapting to the new offense and not hitting peak value until five or six games into the season. I’m good with Hurts as QB6 (in my ranks), but that includes a Round 6 cost to offset some of that risk. If Hurts goes earlier, I’d rather let someone else draft him and look to buy low if he gets off to a slow start.
With the receiving corps, we covered how good Hurts has been over the middle on a per-attempt basis. Lemon has the makings of an Amon-Ra St. Brown, and calling him only a “short-to-intermediate, middle-of-the-field receiver” is disrespectful. Lemon was third among Power Four conferences for receptions of 20+ yards (19). He can play outside, and he can go deep. Nevertheless, his opportunity is to fill the void alongside Smith.
Looking at just the past two seasons, since that includes Barkley’s effect on the offense, Brown averaged 132.4 targets for a 17-game pace, while Smith averaged 114.4. The volume was already there before any potential improvement from Mannion’s play-calling, and even if Lemon only gets Smith’s targets, he’s walking into 114 targets. That gives him WR3 value with WR2 upside. Smith is obviously a locked-in WR2, and while I would never predict it, Lemon finishing ahead of Smith wouldn’t shock me out of my chair.
Dallas Goedert should remain his touchdown-reliant self, and if you are worried about the potential rookie struggle for Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks has flashed with the Packers and could be a WR4, though that would surprise me a little.
Given that the Eagles prepared for this move before free agency and at the draft, this feels like wins all around, and we should be excited for Maye, Hurts, Brown, Doubs, Smith and Lemon in 2026.