Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
The top four has looked secure for weeks, but one side is starting to wobble, despite what the win column says. And there’s a rising team ready to break their way in.
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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 14 below!
How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
All times AEST.
See the Fox Footy Power Rankings after Round 14.Source: FOX SPORTS
1. FREMANTLE (12-1, 147.9%)
Last week: Ranked 1st, BYE
The Dockers had the bye, and now get their biggest test yet – the one team they haven’t beaten this year, at home, off a bye, in primetime. There would be no shame in losing because the Cats are a quality side, and we think are their No.1 challenger, but none could deny Freo are flag favourites should they win it.
This week: Geelong at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm
Lyon: Suns an “all duck no dinner team” | 02:13
2. GEELONG (9-5, 123.1%)
Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Gold Coast by 45 pts
They’re nearly through the meat of what we predicted to be, and what has turned into, a pretty brutal fixture. The Cats’ next three are very loseable – Freo away is an obvious one, but then it’s Brisbane and GWS, a pair of sides they’ve had terrible form against in recent years. By the end of Round 17, they will have played 11 of their 16 games against the rest of the top 10… so yes, they’re going to end the season against lesser opponents, but it’s a completely false narrative. (We know we mentioned this last week but we’re just preparing you for the nonsense coming down the pipeline.) Anyway – we’ve moved the Cats above the Swans again because of the faith we have in the profile of Chris Scott’s side, as poor as their defence can look on some nights. Beating Freo away might be a bit too hard but that’s only a problem if the Cats end up on that side of the finals bracket and are heading there on preliminary final night.
This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm
Scott lauds young rucks after win | 15:13
3. SYDNEY SWANS (12-2, 143.7%)
Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Port Adelaide by 3 pts
It’s really hard to criticise a 12-2 team that’s equal-top of the ladder, but we know Sydney’s season is all about whether they can finally find September success with this group – and their flaws can’t be ignored. It’s not just the fact four of their last five wins have been single-digit escapes over average-to-bad teams – by itself that’s concerning enough. But it’s the fact they just don’t look anything like themselves once they run into a top defence. Obviously, the best teams are usually worse against the best, but there’s a clear trend here. The Swans lost to the Cats and Hawks (very good defences), barely got past the Magpies and Power (bad attacks, elite defences) and haven’t played the Crows or Dockers yet. There is merit in demolishing the worst defences but much of their statistical premiership case is built on those flat-track wins. The last good team Sydney beat by more than three goals was… well, the injury-ravaged Bulldogs in Round 7 probably don’t count… the Suns in Gather Round? Look, we’re picking holes, but this stuff matters when you’re among the elite.
This week: BYE
Cox praises Swans after comeback win | 06:31
4. HAWTHORN (8-4-1, 113.2%)
Last week: Ranked 4th, BYE
The Hawks had the bye, and in the process slipped out of the top four. They’ve got a pretty gentle run home so they should be OK but their next three games are against like types – Gold Coast away, GWS at home, Melbourne in Launceston. They should be favourites in all three but as we’ve seen against the Magpies and Bulldogs, these Hawks can find a way to lose games they shouldn’t. If they win all three, because of a very easy month to follow, they will be extremely likely to make the top four. Keep in mind this team hasn’t played Carlton, North Melbourne, Richmond or West Coast yet (because the AFL fixture is flawless)…
This week: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Friday 7:40pm
Kingy slams ‘Comical’ Roos defence | 01:19
5. ADELAIDE CROWS (8-5, 112.4%)
Last week: Ranked 6th, def Western Bulldogs by 57 pts
There’s something real happening here, and with one of the more favourable runs home for the contending sides, the Crows can absolutely still crack the top four. Jordan Dawson – who absolutely MUST be the All-Australian captain – is the biggest reason they’re surging back into flag contention but it’s more than just him. As AFL Media’s Riley Beveridge pointed out this week, the Crows have outscored opponents 123-38 in ruck contests pitting Lachie McAndrew against the opponent’s primary ruck in the last five games – the ex-Swan helping Adelaide dominate against the Bulldogs’ name-brand midfield being his crowning achievement thus far. We have Adelaide favoured in eight of their final 10 matches (Sydney away and Fremantle away will be tricky) with lots of home games against solid but beatable opposition.
This week: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
Dawson form inspiring Crows turn around | 00:55
6. BRISBANE LIONS (8-6, 108.4%)
Last week: Ranked 5th, def Richmond by 35 pts
They got there in the end, after a wobbly first half against the lowly Tigers, and now get a chance to reset heading into a fortnight that can define their season. After the bye, the Lions host Sydney and travel to Geelong before a very cruisy month – the latter should be enough to guarantee them a finals spot, but they’re in a little bit of strife if they drop the former two. Their top-six chances will be touch-and-go if they’re sitting 8-8 in a few weeks’ time; and while we’d still say Brisbane can win the flag if they finish 5th or 6th, we can’t imagine anyone winning five straight finals. (Well, we can imagine it. Our imagination is not THAT limited.)
This week: BYE
Fagan eyes strong run home for Lions | 05:33
7. MELBOURNE (9-5, 105.7%)
Last week: Ranked 10th, def Essendon by 45 pts
They are IN THE TOP FOUR. What on earth is going on?! Their next two games – Adelaide in Adelaide, and a rematch with Hawthorn but in Launceston – will decide whether they stay there and we’d say it’s unlikely. It’s part of a tricky remaining draw that includes as many interstate trips as MCG games (four each), and two of those games at their fortress are against flag contenders Fremantle and Geelong. But with nine wins banked, this team now deserves enough faith that we’re happy to declare they’ll play finals, and probably host one – imagine if THIS was the year they finally won an MCG final again after all the frustrations around the 2021 flag and the 2022/23 straight sets exits…
This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
King: “It was a pretty emotional week: | 09:51
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-6, 90.7%)
Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Adelaide by 57 pts
There are enough question marks on the teams below them that we couldn’t drop the Bulldogs any lower – but let’s be clear, they’re not a great side right now. As a post on the AFL subreddit pointed out on Sunday, if all results in close games were flipped, the Dogs would be equal-last with Essendon. You’re free to believe in the idea they have figured something out in close games, and to believe that matters heading into the finals. We don’t; we think it matters that they’ve won the games because of its impact on the ladder, and because it sets them up to take advantage IF they improve, but they have to actually improve first. They have the talent to do that, and Thursday night was kinda expected score-y (take out rushed behinds and the Crows had kicked 16.1 at one stage, which is absurd) so it wasn’t as bad as it looked. But we’re big percentage believers and theirs says a lot about their true quality.
This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Has Hardwick gone too far? | 04:14
9. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-6, 107.2%)
Last week: Ranked 8th, lost to Geelong by 45 pts
The trip to Geelong went almost exactly as you’d expect – the midfield continued to underperform and they struggled to score at a ground where they’re always poor. And as we wrote last week, there’s absolutely a world where the Suns miss the finals from here. They should still be good enough to get into September, probably needing to split their last 10 games 5-5 – but that’ll mean beating multiple quality sides in the process, given six of those games are against teams above them on the ladder. And unless they go on a seriously impressive run, we’re still talking about a pre-season flag fancy just clinging onto a wildcard spot. This is not what they’re supposed to be.
This week: Hawthorn at People First Stadium, Friday 7:40pm
Ralphy says Suns could trade Humphrey! | 00:56
10. GWS GIANTS (6-7, 102.3%)
Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to St Kilda by 8 pts
This week: Carlton at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
11. ST KILDA (6-8, 102.4%)
Last week: Ranked 12th, def GWS by 8 pts
This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Clearly the Saints have a strong case to be above the Giants, having now beaten them twice, but we’re leaving the orange team higher based on their upside. (Plus both games were so close as not to be decisive.) They’re two teams either primed to pose a real threat in a wildcard final, or rise up high enough that they’ll be hosting one; at the very least people are sleeping on them. Their remaining games are likely to shape the top 10 – the Giants have the four best teams over the next six weeks (and also Carlton and Essendon) and have the capacity to upset one or two of them. The Saints, meanwhile, can set themselves up for a run up the table if they beat the Bulldogs this week – with another five games remaining against teams below them on the ladder. Two very intriguing clubs.
Kinglsey brutally honest on Jesse Hogan | 06:21
NAS role change pays off for Ross Lyon | 10:16
12. COLLINGWOOD (5-7-1, 99.2%)
Last week: Ranked 11th, BYE
The Magpies had the bye, which is good because you need naps as you get older. If they’re any sort of serious, they should take care of business over the next fortnight against Port Adelaide and Richmond – those games, plus North Melbourne (Round 18), Carlton (Round 19) and West Coast (Round 22) are basically must-win if they’re going to play finals.
This week: Port Adelaide at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
13. CARLTON (5-8, 88.7%)
Last week: Ranked 13th, BYE
The Blues had the bye, and if you’re a believer in momentum, perhaps that halted it. We suspect the fact the Giants are a better team will be the real culprit on Saturday, but if Josh Fraser’s men instead make it five wins in a row, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t win seven straight with West Coast (Marvel) and Richmond to come…
This week: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Instant Classic: Swans survive big scare | 03:19
14. PORT ADELAIDE (4-9, 101%)
Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Sydney by 3 pts
We’ve been talking about for a while but expanded upon our Port Adelaide thoughts in this week’s Talking Points – they’re having the perfect ethical tanking season – so check that out if you haven’t already. Josh Carr’s extremely solid defence is going to catch somebody out on the run home and it could easily be Collingwood this week, given their well-known scoring issues. If not, the Showdown, North Melbourne at home and St Kilda away over the ensuing three weeks are all winnable… though we’d argue more painfully close losses would be ideal!
This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Carr proud of Power despite close loss | 08:40
15. NORTH MELBOURNE (6-7, 88.5%)
Last week: Ranked 15th, def West Coast by 1 pt
Even we, as the biggest believers in expected score, were puzzled to learn the Kangaroos actually ‘should’ve’ won by more based on that stat. Clearly a statistic cannot watch television, and thus it didn’t see the North Melbourne defence try its best to giftwrap the game to West Coast, before their wayward forwards re-gifted the four points straight back to them. It wasn’t quite the statement win we were hoping for after the Fremantle embarrassment, when people overreacted about how bad the Kangaroos looked, but at least they won. And it means on the ladder they’re above Collingwood, a team that hosted a prelim last year, heading into Round 15. PROGRESS! And now the Roos should beat Richmond and Essendon over the next two weeks, and have a winning record (!!!) entering July. We love talking down the importance of a win-loss record but if the Kangaroos are 8-7, even if it’s fixture-assisted, it’s damn impressive.
This week: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Clarkson: “Lucky to win in the end! | 14:15
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-10, 72.7%)
Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to North Melbourne by 1 pt
Obviously wins aren’t the main metric for the Eagles right now but jeez, doing the double over North Melbourne would’ve been nice, and that was an especially painful way to miss the four points. It’s easy to imagine West Coast winning that game had Reuben Ginbey been healthy, though you still have to feel good about the defence given how well they’ve been travelling since Rhett Bazzo’s return. And a shoutout to our boy Jobe Shanahands, too. What a promising season this has turned out to be.
This week: BYE
McQualter backs Waterman after miss | 09:37
17. RICHMOND (2-11, 61.1%)
Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Brisbane by 35 pts
There are basically two types of Richmond games in 2026 – the ‘get obliterated’ game, and the ‘wait why are they still in it at halftime… OK never mind they lost by six goals’ game. Last Sunday was the latter, for all those who were watching a different yellow-jersey team in another code at the time. Technically there’s a third type of game, where they either win or should’ve won, but that has only happened three times. Could this Sunday be the fourth?
This week: North Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Yze reflects on third-quarter swing | 06:18
18. ESSENDON (1-13, 70.4%)
Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Melbourne by 45 pts
Let’s say Code Sports’ report that Andrew Welsh would “need to be talked out” of hiring Dean Solomon as coach has at least some basis in reality – we trust Scott Gullan’s reporting. Wouldn’t hiring Solomon be like hiring James Hird but without any of the upside? Look, let’s trust Essendon to be at least somewhat logical with their coaching search, but Solomon effectively washed out of the AFL. He was a long-time Suns assistant who never got a senior gig and left after 2020, had the same part-time gig at GWS in 2022 as Hird, worked on the Essendon board remotely for a year, and when his ex-teammate Welsh became president he was lured back into assistant coaching. Now Welsh reportedly wants Solomon to get the gig despite spending four years out of the past five not in the AFL system – isn’t that what we’re criticising the Hird thing for? But Hird would at least excite a portion of the Essendon fanbase, bringing financial benefits, and was actually a senior coach for a while (other than Solomon’s leadership of the Tweed Coast Tigers in the QFA Division 2 South across 2023-25, of course). Strange. But then, this is a very strange club.
This week: BYE
Solomon: “Focus is on these players” | 09:25