With the bye rounds done and dusted, we can see September on the horizon. There’s just eight rounds left in the 2026 season – so who’s playing finals?
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.
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How does The Run Home work?
We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.
Fox Footy’s predicted final ladder, as of Round 16.Source: FOX SPORTS
PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Geelong at Optus Stadium
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Brisbane Lions vs TBC at the Gabba
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Melbourne vs Collingwood at the MCG
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Carlton at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Fremantle (19.5 projected wins)
2. Sydney Swans (17.5)
3. Hawthorn (16.4)
4. Geelong (14.8)
5. Brisbane Lions (14.35)
6. Adelaide Crows (14.15)
7. Melbourne (13.4)
8. Western Bulldogs (13.2)
9. Carlton (11)
10. Collingwood (10.9)
11. St Kilda (10.75)
12. Gold Coast Suns (10.65)
13. GWS Giants (10.4)
14. North Melbourne (10.15)
15. Port Adelaide (8.2)
16. West Coast Eagles (6.05)
17. Richmond (3.2)
18. Essendon (2.4)
Another HOWLER for the ARC | 01:37
Key Talking Points
– The AFL is going to be pretty happy it introduced the wildcard this year, because the race for the top eight wouldn’t be great in 2026. The race for the top 10, though? Well, just scroll up and remind yourself who we’re tipping to finish ninth…
– The road to the Grand Final runs through Perth, because while we’ve seen some mid-season ladder leaders fall off in recent years, it’d take an almighty collapse for Fremantle to miss the top two;
– Sydney’s concerning loss to the Lions just opens the door for the other home qualifying final spot, though the Swans are still warm favourites ahead of Hawthorn (who have a pretty nice run home);
– Welcome back to the top four race, Brisbane. Comfortably beating the Swans has the back-to-back premiers back in the conversation, though they probably need to upset Geelong next week at the Cattery. Do that, and the Lions have a chance… but it’d be even better for Adelaide, who need the help after their shock Showdown loss;
– We have Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs in a bit of no man’s land. The Demons still have a real shot at finishing top six, though they’re going to need to beat the likes of Hawthorn or Geelong over the next month. The Bulldogs have built enough of a buffer they should be safely into a home final but we’d be surprised if they climbed higher than 7th/8th;
– It’s a genuine six-team race for 9th and 10th, and we have Carlton and Collingwood sneaking in, based on our belief in their respective defences and more clear paths to the 11-win minimum. St Kilda might be the best of the bunch, but has to win an extra game, while Gold Coast at its best absolutely should be fine… but hasn’t been at its best for a long time now. Same deal with GWS;
– We just can’t trust North Melbourne to actually make it yet; their resume is so weak. Due to their percentage they probably need to win four more games, but they don’t have any easy ones left;
– We are not only on track for two semi-finals in Victoria (exactly what the AFL doesn’t want, because of the NFL game at the MCG that week), but two all-Victorian semi-finals. They can’t play at the MCG on Friday… and can’t really mess up the whole finals schedule by playing on Sunday… are the Cats gonna get a true home final?!
See Fox Footy’s predicted ladder in The Run Home.Source: FOX SPORTS
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.
1. FREMANTLE (14-1, 148.2%)
Remaining games
Round 17: GWS at Manuka Oval, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 18: Sydney at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm
Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest
The Dockers will host a qualifying final. They would need to go 4-4 while the Hawks go unbeaten just to miss the top two – and even then, if one of those four wins comes over Sydney, they’d probably be fine. Their main task from here is managing their incredibly healthy list so they’re primed for that first final. Basically, the only thing working against Freo is the fact the Grand Final will be at the MCG regardless…
Fox Footy’s projection: 19.5 wins, finishing 1st
Voss: ‘No appetite for coaching’ | 00:44
2. SYDNEY SWANS (12-3, 135.7%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Western Bulldogs at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 18: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Thursday 8:10pm
Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest
Still the warm favourites for a top-two finish but our concerns for the Swans are more about how bad they’ve been against the best – and they’re yet to play two of the best, Fremantle and Adelaide. Their massive percentage lead helps here; they’re effectively still three wins ahead of everyone except Hawthorn. If the Swans hit Round 21 ahead of the Hawks, they should hold onto second spot, because their last month is very manageable. But it’s a matter of whether they’re caught over the next four games. Even then we’re only talking about them dropping into third place; we can’t realistically see Sydney missing the top four. They will get a shot at the pointy end of the season, and then it’ll be time to prove themselves.
Fox Footy’s projection: 17.5 wins, finishing 2nd
Cox frankly admits Swans’ shortcomings | 06:06
3. HAWTHORN (10-4-1, 113.7%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 18: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 19: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
As we’ve noted a few times in our Power Rankings columns, the Hawks have had a strange draw where they’re yet to play most of the bad teams – in this respect, their current record is even better than it looks. Those clashes with North Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast plus another game against Essendon don’t necessarily matter for the Hawks’ percentage; they have a draw, after all. But there are simply fewer banana peels on this run home, as compared to Geelong’s, Brisbane’s and Adelaide’s, and if anyone’s going to catch Sydney for second it should be Hawthorn. Though given how Hawks-Swans went earlier this year we suspect Sam Mitchell wouldn’t fear an away qualifying final there anyway; it’s definitely preferable to travelling to Perth (though comes with the risk of losing, and copping Fremantle away in a prelim instead).
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.4 wins, finishing 3rd
Mitchell ‘super impressed’ with midfield | 11:03
4. GEELONG (9-6, 120.6%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 18: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 19: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest
We know Chris Scott loves to time Geelong’s run, and three losses in their last four games by a combined 14 points aren’t massively concerning in the big picture. Surprisingly the Cats didn’t drop out of the top four during their bye week, so they remain ahead in a tight race for fourth. Yes, they’ve got their now-trademark easy last few weeks – but that’s only because they’ve played all the tough games already. And the next few games aren’t simple with the Lions, Giants and Saints all prone to upsetting the Cats. They’re probably favoured in all of their remaining games, and we’d be very surprised if they miss the top six. But there’s absolutely a world where they can’t get things purring out of the bye, and fall behind Hawthorn, Adelaide and Brisbane by enough that even sweeping their final four games can’t get them into the top four. Losing to the Lions would really open up the chance of falling into sixth. And even though fifth and sixth now have the advantage of a bye before their home elimination final, you’d still much rather have the double chance, and at least get a chance of pulling a qualifying final upset on the road.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.8 wins, finishing 4th
ANOTHER after-the-siren no goal! | 00:54
5. BRISBANE LIONS (9-6, 111%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 18: Essendon at the Gabba, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 19: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest
It feels like we’ll look back on Thursday night’s win over Sydney as the moment Brisbane’s premiership defence kicked into gear. In ladder terms, it was huge, because with a few tricky games left (Cats away, Hawks at home) the Lions can’t afford too many more stumbles. A top-four finish is well within reach though they’re going to need to win at least six (if not seven) of their last eight. Next week could decide it. But even with a loss to Geelong, the Lions can use the ensuing month to consolidate a top-six place, giving a position we know they can win a flag from. And it’s not THAT different to sneaking into the top four; their wobbles across the season so far have already guaranteed they’re not making top two. If they host an elimination final, their path to the Grand Final would be something like Melbourne/Bulldogs (Gabba), then Geelong/Hawthorn (MCG), then Fremantle/Sydney (away) – not easy, but something this group can definitely overcome.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.35 wins, finishing 5th
‘Back ourselves in’: Fagan on mentality | 07:23
6. ADELAIDE CROWS (9-6, 110%)
Remaining games
Round 17: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 18: Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 19: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 20: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest
Sydney’s loss wasn’t great but Adelaide’s was the worst of the weekend by some margin, wasting a golden opportunity to lead the top-four race. Instead, while the Crows are clearly still in the mix, they’re probably going to need the Cats and Lions to stumble. We have Matthew Nicks’ men favoured in six games but clear underdogs when playing away to Sydney and Fremantle. It feels like they’re basically guaranteed to win 14 or 15 games from here – they shouldn’t be losing to bottom-three teams on the road (Eagles, Bombers) and should be beating bad-to-average teams at home (Suns, Pies, Tigers, Giants). With their percentage, which is just OK, that’s unlikely to be enough for the top four. But we’d be pretty surprised if they missed the top six.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 6th
Roo gives beautiful Tony Modra update | 01:56
7. MELBOURNE (9-6, 104.2%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 18: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 20: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest
At a minimum, the Demons look on track for a home final – whether in wildcard week, or an elimination final – which will give them another chance to break that somewhat-infamous MCG drought since the 2021 premiership. Just winning one game in September would make this season a massive success, and given how well the Dees have gone against contenders like Hawthorn and Brisbane they wouldn’t have any fear in a semi-final either. The top six is gettable here, especially if they beat the Cats in that Friday night blockbuster in Round 20, but there are some definite danger games here too. They should get to 11 wins over the next month, and then Gold Coast away and Port away are likely to determine how high they finish.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.4 wins, finishing 7th
Bizarre scenes in boundary infringement | 02:05
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-6, 92.8%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Round 18: West Coast at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 19: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 20: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest
This time of year, we’re used to writing about the Bulldogs as a theoretically really good team who have fallen behind the pack and need to keep winning to actually play finals. (They were 9-6 last year and only missed because of the most absurd top-eight race ever.) 2026 is different because we’re not massively convinced by their performances, but the wins all count for four points regardless of the margins. So even if the Dogs cop a few close losses in the next eight weeks they’re likely to return to the post-season; they need to get the job done against the Eagles and Tigers, and then one or two wins against the Suns, Roos, Blues and Dees should be enough. Every chance they’re going into the final two weeks playing for a top-six spot, with that Dogs-Dees game in Round 24 looking particularly tasty.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.2 wins, finishing 8th
Essendon confirm panel to select coach | 01:05
9. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-7, 92.2%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 18: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm
Round 19: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Sydney at the SCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest
The Kangaroos are a great example of the problem with judging teams purely on the ladder. We’re not criticising them for winning eight games – it’s a massively successful season compared to the rest of this decade – but it’s fair to point out six have come against the bottom four, the others against a much worse Voss-led Carlton and an exhausted Gold Coast. (Definitely a good win, though less impressive with the current state of the Suns.) They all count for four points but the Kangaroos don’t have another easy game left on this fixture. Because of their percentage they’re probably going to need to win 12 games to play finals; so if they can beat like types such as the Power, Pies, Saints and Dogs, they’ll be fine. We suspect they can’t win all of those though; in fact we have them as underdogs in every remaining game.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.15 wins, finishing 14th
Schultz, McStay in 3QT confrontation | 00:40
10. COLLINGWOOD (7-7-1, 104.2%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm
Round 19: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest
We’ve been saying for a couple of months now Collingwood feels destined for an away wildcard final (ideally interstate though that’s less likely now), which they scrap their way into somehow winning. That’s the only real scenario where they have an impact on September, after all of their injuries plus running out of the special close game juice they stole from the Tune Squad. With four genuine contenders left on their fixture, the Pies will absolutely need to take care of business against the others – Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton and West Coast – at which point that draw against the Hawks can get them into the 10. There’s absolutely a downside risk here, though. It wouldn’t be shocking if they failed to hit 10 wins and that would be a pretty big disappointment, a year after hosting a prelim.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.9 wins, finishing 10th
McRae happy as Pies bank win | 08:36
11. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-8, 101.2%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Collingwood at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 18: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 19: Western Bulldogs at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 21: Melbourne at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 22: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 23: Brisbane at the Gabba, details TBC
Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest
The Suns’ fate is still in their hands, and while a five-game losing streak is obviously bad, the last four have come against four top-tier flag contenders. They should still be beating the likes of the Pies, Dogs, Blues, Giants and Saints (maybe throw in the Dees game since it’s at home) – and if they win all five they will play finals. Heck, if they win four they might hold on. But there are certainly no easy games on this fixture, and given they’ve only got three home games left, can we really trust them to get it done? The fact they’re a genuine chance of missing the 10, with all of their talent, with all of their expectations and with a highly-rated coach… well, this is when you’re happy to be outside of the Melbourne bubble.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.65 wins, finishing 12th
Cripps gets laugh over Reid | 00:46
12. CARLTON (7-8, 95.6%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 18: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 20: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest
Yep. NINTH. We are not saying it definitely WILL happen, but it absolutely CAN… Wildcarlton. (Wildcardton? Wildcarltdon? …this pun works better when you speak it than in text.) You know the story by now; the Blues have been a much better side under Josh Fraser, with dramatic defensive improvements and genuinely impressive wins. They have a much better resume than North Melbourne, for example. Having risen from 1-8 to 7-8, the Blues can incredibly be even on the season by beating lowly Richmond next Saturday night. And while their fixture gets quite a bit harder from here, there’s still a path to 11 (the likely minimum for a wildcard) or 12 wins (what Carlton probably needs due to its percentage). They can absolutely beat the Tigers, Pies, Suns, Saints and Dogs. That’s 12 wins. That’s finals footy. (And then five wins later, it’s the most incredible premiership in V/AFL history, duh.)
Fox Footy’s projection: 11 wins, finishing 9th
Fraser speaks on Blues 6th straight win | 08:49
13. ST KILDA (6-9, 100.6%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 18: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
The wildcard could still save their season. By building their own hype, the majority of the footy world is going to view 2026 as a failure if the Saints don’t play finals – though the people saying they haven’t improved are being ignorant. Their strong performances have given them a reasonable percentage, which should come in handy, and five wins from these eight games could be enough – they’ll want six wins to be certain. Their recent injuries will make that harder but there’s definitely a path here; we have the Saints favoured over the Bombers, Power, Roos, Blues, Tigers and Suns. But they have to win ALL of those to get to 12, which is likely to be the magic number. (Though there’s a world where they sneak in with 11 wins over the likes of the Kangaroos and Blues on percentage.) Someone in the pack of teams between 9th (North Melbourne) and 14th (GWS) will go on a run, and it could well be them.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.75 wins, finishing 11th
Voss on ‘difficulty’ of watching Blues | 01:24
14. GWS GIANTS (6-9, 99.3%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Fremantle at Manuka Oval, Saturday 1:35pm
Round 18: Geelong at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 20: Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm
Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
There’s some chance Friday night’s valiant loss to the Hawks was the last shot this Giants group will fire in 2026. They are good enough, at their best, to challenge the likes of Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide – but ALL of them? You will need at least 11 wins to make the top 10, and possibly 12 wins, which means the Giants have to take care of business against like types and also-rans (Essendon, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, West Coast) while also upsetting one or two contenders. And that’s just to sneak into 9th or 10th. You wouldn’t want to play them in a wildcard game because they don’t care where they play, and their upside is high. But those hopes of a true revival and top-six push, sparked by the wins over Brisbane and Melbourne, are over.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.4 wins, finishing 13th
Kingsley reflects on costly loss | 08:44
15. PORT ADELAIDE (5-10, 100.9%)
Remaining games
Round 17: North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 18: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 19: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm
Round 20: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 21: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm
Round 22: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 23: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, details TBC
Round 24: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
The Power’s perfect season got even more perfect when they upset the Crows. Barely winning any games (to guarantee they can match the Dougie Cochrane bid at Pick 1) but looking really impressive AND still winning a Showdown, right when Adelaide was pushing for the top four, is absolute chef’s kiss material. This is gonna be the best 15th-placed team ever. The greatest ethical tank you’ve ever seen. It’s beautiful.
Fox Footy’s projection: 8.2 wins, finishing 15th
Power stun Crows in Showdown 60 | 03:27
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-11, 71.3%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 19: Brisbane at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 21: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 22: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm
Round 23: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC
Round 24: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
They won’t be claiming the wooden spoon, because there’s no chance the Tigers and Bombers both catch and pass them. But the Eagles’ recent close losses also make it virtually impossible to them to make a wildcard surge either. So it’s just about pinching a win or two more and continuing to feel positive heading into the off-season – maybe beating the Tigers and Magpies back-to-back in the final month of the season, for a bit of 2018/19-era nostalgia?
Fox Footy’s projection: 6.05 wins, finishing 16th
McQualter: “Carlton smashed us” | 08:25
17. RICHMOND (2-13, 61.8%)
Remaining games
Round 17: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 21: West Coast at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm
Round 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Round 23: St Kilda at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest
That one extra win already on the board, compared to Essendon, could be enough to avoid the Tigers’ second wooden spoon in three years. Especially when Adem Yze’s men have the ‘easiest’ game remaining across the two clubs’ fixtures (at home vs West Coast). And just take a look at the Bombers’ fixture… yikes. Maybe the spoon comes down to Round 24, when Essendon hosts Port Adelaide, but even that feels optimistic.
Fox Footy’s projection: 3.2 wins, finishing 17th
Yze happy with Tigers fightback | 10:36
18. ESSENDON (1-14, 71%)
Remaining games
Round 17: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 18: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 19: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 20: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 21: Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
Round 23: Sydney at the MCG, details TBC
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, details TBC
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
Even with the introduction of the wildcard, the Bombers obviously aren’t playing finals – we’re pretty sure they could be officially eliminated next week – and this horrendous draw doesn’t exactly help. They’re going to need to pull a pretty big upset, while hoping Richmond can’t beat the likes of Carlton or West Coast, to avoid their second wooden spoon in 92 years. Maybe their best chance is in the final round against the Power? …maybe? (We would instead recommend Bombers fans go and watch some Harry Van Hattum highlights. And enjoy his awesome name.)
Fox Footy’s projection: 2.4 wins, finishing 18th