Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
The premiership favourites are starting to threaten some of the AFL’s longest-standing records, while Nick Daicos’ unbelievable numbers are reminiscent of another little master.
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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 16 below!
How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
All times AEST.
See Fox Footy’s Power Rankings after Round 16.Source: FOX SPORTS
1. FREMANTLE (14-1, 148.2%)
Last week: Ranked 1st, def Gold Coast by 51 pts
They could go 4-4 the rest of the home and away season and would probably still make the top two. Heck, they could go 6-2 and would likely still claim the minor premiership. Whenever we’re having to open up the AFL Tables ‘Streaks’ page, you know a team is really damn good, and the Dockers are really damn good. The last month has removed any doubts we have; this is the best team in footy, by a reasonable distance right now. For what it’s worth, the longest winning streak of the 18-team era was Melbourne’s 17-game run between late 2021 and mid-2022. Then you’re getting to St Kilda’s 19-win streak in 2009, Brisbane (in 2001/02) and Essendon (in 2000) hitting 20 games, and the all-time record is Geelong’s 23 straight across 1952-53. If the Dockers win every game from here, they’ll break that record by winning their prelim. They could also post the second-best season in V/AFL history at 22-1, behind only Collingwood’s 18-0 in 1929. (Those Magpies lost their first final and still won the Grand Final thanks to the challenge system, for all those playing at home…)
This week: GWS at Manuka Oval, Saturday 1:35pm
Should Freo rest their young stars? | 02:22
2. GEELONG (9-6, 120.6%)
Last week: Ranked 2nd, BYE
The Cats had the bye, and head straight into what’s almost a top-four decider – whoever wins Thursday night at the Cattery will be the favourite to finish fourth (and perhaps more importantly keep in touch with Hawthorn, because finishing third and avoiding Freo sounds pretty great right now). Though the Giants, even with their injuries, will be dangerous next week too – having won four straight over the Cats. It’s a very important fortnight.
This week: Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
‘It’s all a little bit hard for him’ | 00:59
3. HAWTHORN (10-4-1, 113.7%)
Last week: Ranked 4th, def GWS by 14 pts
They were a bit less convincing in beating the Giants than you’d like, though it was still a seven-goal turnaround from Opening Round. The Hawks rise a spot partially because the Swans were so poor, but also because Will Day’s return to the midfield is clearly giving them exactly what they needed. Since he came back, the Hawks have improved dramatically in clearance to score percentage (14th to 3rd), points from centre ball-up differential (18th to 2nd) and points from clearance differential (13th to 2nd). The midfield is no longer a real concern. The Hawks are kinda just good at everything – maybe not elite at everything, especially when they’re missing the likes of Jack Gunston, but good enough.
This week: Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
4. SYDNEY SWANS (12-3, 135.7%)
Last week: Ranked 3rd, lost to Brisbane by 43 pts
In a sense it’s not surprising that defence is going to stop the Swans from being a top-tier premiership contender, because that’s exactly what we thought coming into the season – when they spent all those assets on landing Charlie Curnow, and boosted an attack that already worked really well without a clear spearhead in 2024. Although while it’s partially a personnel issue, it’s also a bit of a structural and strategic one – just like their cross-town rivals the Giants, who also are willing to sacrifice bad turnovers to unlock their brilliant-at-its-best ball movement. It’s just not working against the best teams, and the Swans still have the Dockers and Crows to come over the next few weeks. It’d still be surprising if they missed the top two but they need a defensive fix more than they need a dominant ladder position.
This week: Western Bulldogs at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
Will Amartey’s injury affect his future? | 01:22
5. BRISBANE LIONS (9-6, 111%)
Last week: Ranked 6th, def Sydney by 43 pts
Everything just felt right against Sydney. With a handful of key inclusions, and some returns to form, the Lions felt structurally much more sound and took full advantage of the Swans’ leaky defence. They’re probably still going to need to beat one of Hawthorn or Geelong to make the top four – preferably the latter, since the Cats’ spot is much more vulnerable. But when they’re playing like they did last Thursday night, this Brisbane team is still a realistic flag contender, even coming from fifth or sixth.
This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
Fagan addresses Lions star exit rumours | 01:31
6. ADELAIDE CROWS (9-6, 110%)
Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Port Adelaide by 26 pts
It really felt like the Crows had gotten their act together… and then came the Showdown. We’ve pointed out before that the cliche around Showdowns always being close or unpredictable generally isn’t true – but Port Adelaide winning, considering their injuries the week prior, was absolutely a shock. And it could end up being the difference between a top-four finish and an elimination final for the Crows. They probably are just a top-six team rather than a true top-tier contender this year, which is still a reasonably successful season after the massive climb of 2025; we’ve seen minor premiers fall much further off the cliff this decade. In the long-term things are OK, especially with a big trade period coming up. But in the short-term, they have raised our hopes and dashed them quite expertly, sir.
This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Randall announces AFLW retirement | 01:02
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-6, 92.8%)
Last week: Ranked 7th, BYE
This week: Sydney at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm
8. MELBOURNE (9-6, 104.2%)
Last week: Ranked 8th, BYE
This week: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
Both of these teams had the bye, and resume just percentage out of fourth, though we think there’s a reasonably big gap between the top six and these two sides. We still can’t fully trust the Bulldogs because of all those narrow escapes, and we still can’t fully trust the Demons because it’s still just so weird seeing them this high on the ladder. If either side is going to make a real top-four push, it would be the Demons, though they’d need to beat at least one of Hawthorn (Launceston this week), Geelong or Fremantle (both at MCG). They should be much better after their long-awaited bye week. (The AFL fixture is perfect and never weird.)
Third team join the hunt for Butters | 01:24
9. CARLTON (7-8, 95.6%)
Last week: Ranked 10th, def West Coast by 53 pts
It’s crazy how quickly this Carlton thing has gone from ‘ha, this is a bit of fun, interim coach yayyyyy’ to ‘OK we actually have them favoured to make the finals’. We know people are sceptical of the wildcard concept, and of letting 10 out of 18 teams into the post-season – it’s definitely too many for the purposes of finding a premier (it’ll be fine when we get to 20 teams), and there’s an obvious element of the AFL wanting to sell two more big games. They don’t feel like real finals right now. But when we get to the last weekend of August, and 90,000 people are there at the MCG watching the Blues, they’ll start to feel real.
This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
10. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-8, 101.2%)
Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Fremantle by 51 pts
We’re not totally panicking about the Suns – if they beat the teams they SHOULD beat, they should still play finals – but the vibes are just horrendous right now. It’s always hard to know how much trade speculation is impacting a team but it’s so easy to draw the conclusion, without knowing for sure, that many players aren’t happy or comfortable. Damien Hardwick may continue to deny that charge, but any club denial has to be taken with an amount of salt comparable to the evidence outweighing it – plus he effectively admitted it with Bailey Humphrey the other week. They simply have to beat the Magpies this week to stop the rot.
This week: Collingwood at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
Another HOWLER for the ARC | 01:37
11. COLLINGWOOD (7-7-1, 104.2%)
Last week: Ranked 11th, def Richmond by 34 pts
Is anyone else getting Gary Ablett at Gold Coast vibes from Nick Daicos right now? He’s averaging 35 disposals and two goals over the past six games! You can only get those kinds of absurd numbers when you’re not getting a lot of statistical competition from your teammates and while Jordan De Goey is having an excellent year, it only makes sense that an injury-ravaged Pies team is relying even heavier on Daicos. It’s not criticism in the slightest; it’s logical to coach a team to maximise its strengths and minimise its weaknesses, even if Daicos’ actual quality of disposal lets him down pretty often. (Hey, if Patrick Dangerfield can be a walk-up Hall of Famer while kicking like he often does, Daicos can overcome some turnovers too!)
This week: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm
12. ST KILDA (6-9, 100.6%)
Last week: Ranked 12th, BYE
The Saints had the bye, and effectively must win their next two games to keep their season alive – Essendon and Port Adelaide both at Marvel. Then at 8-9, with games against the Kangaroos, Blues, Tigers and Suns still to come, the chances of Ross Lyon’s men making the wildcard would start to feel more real. We’re certainly not counting them out just yet.
This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Power stun Crows in Showdown 60 | 03:27
13. PORT ADELAIDE (5-10, 100.9%)
Last week: Ranked 14th, def Adelaide by 26 pts
The Power should probably be playing finals this year, though as we’ve been saying for weeks, it’s way better for them that they won’t. (They’d need to win at least six of their last eight and probably seven; they’re good but they’re not THAT good.) Josh Carr has got a pretty ragtag list working incredibly well defensively, and Zak Butters is having one of the best (likely) farewell seasons you’ll see; we can’t tell if that’s going to make his departure less painful (because he’s giving so much to the team) or more painful (because they’ll miss him so much). The good news is plenty of teams have improved while losing superstar midfielders – just look at Melbourne, who underachieved to finish 14th last year, lost Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver and are now finals-bound. We didn’t listen to the numbers which said the Demons would improve in 2026; we’ll listen when Pythagoras tells us to believe in Port Adelaide in 2027.
This week: North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm
Butters speaks after ’emotional’ win | 02:02
14. GWS GIANTS (6-9, 99.3%)
Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Hawthorn by 14 pts
It was sadly fitting for the Giants that, on a night where they actually looked pretty competitive on the road against a top-four rival, they copped more bad injuries – which have contributed to this very disappointing season. It feels like this off-season could be a massive transition, with questions over Toby Greene’s future and concerns over Jesse Hogan’s body; they’re unlikely to get aggressive and lose those guys AND their other veteran stars but someone must’ve at least had that thought behind the scenes. Instead of those players who have personified the club for a decade, when we think of the Giants now, we think of Lachie Ash – brilliant offensively but overall flawed.
This week: Fremantle at Manuka Oval, Saturday 1:35pm
15. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-7, 92.2%)
Last week: Ranked 15th, def Essendon by 14 pts
It even surprised us when we ran the numbers for The Run Home on Sunday night, and had the Kangaroos finishing 14th. But then you look back at their last three wins – they’ve beaten the worst three teams in the comp, nearly lost two of those games, and only kicked 10 goals in all three. You don’t need any sort of deep analysis to know the Roos have NOT been impressive in those games (though they should’ve beaten Essendon by another few goals). The Kangaroos are 6-1 against the bottom four and 2-6 against everyone else; they have given themselves a massive opportunity to make the finals, but not yet proven they are a finals-quality side.
This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm
Roo gives beautiful Tony Modra update | 01:56
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-11, 71.3%)
Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Carlton by 53 pts
Our first instinct was to say the Eagles are limping to the finish line, but we’d forgotten they went into the bye losing three games by a combined 17 points (and comfortably winning the fourth) – they weren’t great against Carlton but they’re definitely still a level above the bottom two. So that’d be a bit harsh. Still, they’re in absolute no man’s land, about as likely to finish 16th as Fremantle are to finish 1st. Their only real impact on the rest of the season will be whether they spoil a finals contender’s year with an upset – maybe over the Bulldogs (Round 18) or Magpies (Round 22)? Oh, and they’ve got to start feeding Willem Duursma to pump up his stats and get him that Rising Star award, because the momentum is building for Harry Dean (and we don’t understand why Jagga Smith is favoured, but he is).
This week: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
‘Deplorable!’ Are the Dons regressing? | 01:35
17. RICHMOND (2-13, 61.8%)
Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Collingwood by 34 pts
This week: Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm
18. ESSENDON (1-14, 71%)
Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to North Melbourne by 14 pts
This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
We unleashed the first edition of The Run Home on Sunday night, and one look at these two teams’ fixtures tells you the wooden spoon race should be over. The Tigers’ draw is the sixth-easiest… the Bombers’ draw is the hardest. Yes, our column technically says Essendon is projected to win 2.4 games – “who are they beating”, we hear you ask. Well, probably nobody. But here’s a reminder of what that number means; if we give a team a 20% chance to win a game, they add 0.2 projected wins to their total. Even the worst teams usually have a 20% chance to win most games. The Bombers are clearly underdogs in all of their remaining fixtures; if we were tipping every game left straight-up, we’d predict them to finish 1-22 – everybody would. But the weird reality of teams down the bottom is that sometimes you win random games you shouldn’t (like with Richmond’s five wins last year). So who knows?