We’ve officially started the AFL finals race, with all teams having just eight games left, and the next fortnight is expected to shape the first ever top 10 finals series.

There are 14 genuine contenders to make the post-season, after the league expanded the finals with the addition of a wildcard round from 2026 onwards.

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The wildcard round will see 7th play 10th and 8th face 9th across the weekend of August 28-30, while the top six teams have a bye, before the eight-team finals format we’re used to begins on the weekend of September 4-6.

More teams in contention for the finals means more important games, and Rounds 17 and 18 have eight crucial match-ups that’ll shape September, as highlighted by Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

Those include this weekend’s Grand Final rematch at GMHBA Stadium between Geelong and Brisbane, and next week’s top-of-the-table clash at Optus Stadium between Fremantle and Sydney.

Meanwhile the wildcard race will be determined by games like Gold Coast vs Collingwood this week, and Collingwood vs North Melbourne next week.

“There’s a couple of teams there recognised in both of the next two rounds – Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, Collingwood,” Collingwood great Nathan Buckley said.

“You’re really playing for your season, even this far out.”

THE SEPTEMBER-SHAPING FORTNIGHT

Round 17

Geelong (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at GMHBA Stadium, 7:30pm Thursday July 2

Sydney Swans (2nd) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at the SCG, 7:40pm Friday July 3

Hawthorn (3rd) vs Melbourne (7th) at UTAS Stadium, 1:15pm Saturday July 4 [Fox Footy exclusive]

Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Collingwood (10th) at People First Stadium, 4:15pm Saturday July 4 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]

Round 18

Fremantle (1st) vs Sydney Swans (2nd) at Optus Stadium, 8:10pm Thursday July 9

Collingwood (10th) vs North Melbourne (9th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm Friday July 10

Carlton (12th) vs Hawthorn (3rd) at the MCG, 7:35pm Saturday July 11 [Fox Footy exclusive]

Adelaide Crows (6th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Adelaide Oval, 8:10pm Saturday July 11

Collingwood-Gold Coast this week, and Hawthorn-Carlton next week, will define the top 10 race.Source: FOX SPORTS

Brisbane coach Chris Fagan said last week “if you want to be in a chance to win it, you’ve got to finish top six”, based on the wildcard teams needing to win five finals in a row to win the premiership.

That seems extremely unlikely but, as Lions great Jonathan Brown warned, realistically the defining line between the contenders and the non-contenders remains the top four.

The Lions won the flag after finishing fifth in 2024, but they and the 2016 Bulldogs (who finished seventh) are still the exception and not the rule.

“We’ve forgotten about it a little bit, the importance of top four – with the wildcard now people are talking about top six,” Brown said.

“You’ve still got to get the double chance, which is top four, so it feels like it’s a race there where it’s so tight between fourth and ninth.”

Freo charge to top of Premiership Window | 02:30

AFL ladder after Round 16

1. Fremantle (56 pts)

2. Sydney Swans (48)

3. Hawthorn (42)

4. Geelong (36)

5. Brisbane Lions (36)

6. Adelaide Crows (36)

7. Melbourne (36)

8. Western Bulldogs (36)

9. North Melbourne (32)

10. Collingwood (30)

—

11. Gold Coast Suns (28)

12. Carlton (28)

13. St Kilda (24)

14. GWS Giants (24)

15. Port Adelaide (20)

16. West Coast Eagles (16)

17. Richmond (8)

18. Essendon (4)

While only percentage separates the 4th-placed Cats and 8th-placed Bulldogs, Hawthorn champion Jordan Lewis believes the current order is very reflective of the premiership race.

“I know it’s tight, but you can’t really see at the end of the season much change between that ladder and what we’ll see come finals,” Lewis said.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home column agrees, tipping the current top eight to finish in order, based on the number of projected wins for each team.

The changes would come in 9th, where Carlton is projected to replace North Melbourne, while Collingwood hangs onto 10th.

However the Magpies face the Kangaroos, Suns and Blues over the next three weeks which will determine their fate.

The Suns, likewise, have a crucial period coming up facing the Magpies, Crows, Bulldogs, Blues and Demons – all direct competitors for places in the bottom half of the ten.

BIGGEST GAMES TO COME AFTER THAT

Round 19

Sydney Swans (2nd) vs Adelaide Crows (6th) at the SCG, 7:40pm Friday July 17

North Melbourne (9th) vs Melbourne (7th) at Marvel Stadium, 4:15pm Saturday July 18 [Fox Footy exclusive]

Collingwood (10th) vs Carlton (12th) at the MCG, 7:35pm Saturday July 18 [Fox Footy exclusive]

Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at People First Stadium, 3:15pm Sunday July 19

Round 20

Adelaide Crows (6th) vs Collingwood (10th) at Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm Thursday July 23

Melbourne (7th) vs Geelong (4th) at the MCG, 7:40pm Friday July 24

Carlton (12th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Marvel Stadium, 1:05pm Saturday July 25 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]

GWS Giants (14th) vs Sydney Swans (2nd) at ENGIE Stadium, 4:35pm Saturday July 25

Round 21

Collingwood (10th) vs Geelong (4th) at the MCG, 7:30pm Thursday July 30

Fremantle (1st) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at Optus Stadium, 8:10pm Friday July 31

Hawthorn (3rd) vs North Melbourne (9th) at UTAS Stadium, 1:35pm Saturday August 1 [Fox Footy exclusive]

Carlton (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm Saturday August 1 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]

Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Melbourne (7th) at People First Stadium, 3:15pm Sunday August 2

Round 22

Western Bulldogs (8th) vs North Melbourne (9th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm Thursday August 6

Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Hawthorn (3rd) at the Gabba, 7:40pm Friday August 7

Melbourne (7th) vs Fremantle (1st) at the MCG, 1:15pm Saturday August 8 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]

St Kilda (13th) vs Carlton (12th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:20pm Sunday August 9

Round 23 (times, dates TBC)

Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at the Gabba

Hawthorn (3rd) vs Collingwood (10th) at the MCG

North Melbourne (9th) vs Geelong (4th) at Marvel Stadium

Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Carlton (12th) at Marvel Stadium

Fremantle (1st) vs Adelaide Crows (6th) at Optus Stadium

Round 24 (times, dates TBC)

Collingwood (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at the MCG

Carlton (12th) vs Fremantle (1st) at Marvel Stadium

Melbourne (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at the MCG

St Kilda (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Marvel Stadium

Sydney Swans (2nd) vs North Melbourne (9th) at the SCG