June 30, 2026, 3:45 p.m. ET

If the Atlanta Falcons get a strong year at quarterback it’s going to take a whole lot of NFL analysts by surprise. When training camp begins in three weeks Tua Tagovailoa will be competing with Michael Penix Jr. for the right to start for the Falcons come Week 1.

While the battle is still to-be-determined, right now Tagovailoa has to be considered in the lead. Tua has taken every 11-on-11 rep so far this offseason, so he should be further ahead in his chemistry with Atlanta’s playmakers.

Just because he’s their top option to start doesn’t necessarily mean he will be able to lead the Falcons back to the playoffs, though. Coming off a rough 2025 season in Miami, Tagovailoa is considered one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Over at CBS Sports, Bryan DeArdo has ranked Tua among the lowest tier of NFL quarterbacks, in the “holdovers and placeholders” tier.

“Like Murray and Watson, Tagovailoa is another former Pro Bowler who is competing for a starting job. While he has shown flashes of his potential (especially in terms of his accuracy), head injuries have largely defined Tagovailoa’s career up to this point.”

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That puts Tagovailoa in the same company as Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray – veterans who have fallen on hard times.

We feel this is just a little bit harsh. The rest have been inconsistent at best the last few seasons, while Tua had just one bad season. Tagovailoa had much better numbers in 2024, including a league-best 72.9% completion rate. Lumping Tagovailoa in with these bums is off-the mark.

Tagovailoa belongs in the “volatile veterans” category, along with Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young.

Of course it may not even be Tua starting for the Falcons. While the previous regime is now gone, the franchise did invest a top-10 overall pick in Penix – and they’re going to want to give him at least one more chance to prove he can be their long-term starter.