Egypt could be without Mohamed Salah when they take on Australia in the last 32 of the FIFA World Cup in Dallas. Look ahead with our Australia vs Egypt prediction and preview.
Australia vs Egypt: The Key Insights
Egypt are narrow favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, having won against Australia in 39.7% of its pre-match simulations.
This will be Australia’s third FIFA World Cup knockout game; their first two saw them lose to the eventual winners, going down 1-0 to Italy in 2006 and 2-1 to Argentina in 2022.
It is only a second knockout game at the finals for Egypt, although their first was a 4-2 loss to Hungary way back in 1934, when the World Cup did not have a group stage.
Mohamed Salah is an injury doubt for Egypt ahead of their FIFA World Cup last-32 clash with Australia at Dallas Stadium on Thursday.
Salah was withdrawn in the second half of the 1-1 draw with Iran last time out, with team doctor Mohamed Abou El-Ela confirming the 34-year-old had suffered a hamstring strain.
The Egypt captain did not train with the rest of the squad on Monday and instead focused on rehabilitation as he aims to recover sufficiently to feature against Australia.
His absence would be sorely felt by the Pharaohs, given he created 11 chances for team-mates in the group stage – only Belgium’s Leandro Trossard (13) created more.
Salah was also on target as Egypt claimed their first World Cup victory with a 3-1 success against New Zealand, but their failure to beat Iran combined with Belgium’s 5-1 thumping of the All Whites meant they had to settle for second in Group G due to goal difference.
Still, they got through the group with a three-game unbeaten run – their longest stretch in World Cup history – and scored as many goals as they had in their seven prior games at the finals (5).
The goals may not come as easily for Egypt against a stubborn Australia side, though. The average expected goals (xG) value of the shots the Socceroos faced in the group stage was 0.052 (2.68 xG against from 47 shots faced) – only Spain (0.039) had a lower average.
Although Australia qualified second from Group D, they followed up an opening 2-0 win over Türkiye with disappointing displays in a 2-0 loss to the United States and a goalless draw with Paraguay.
Of all sides to finish in the top two of their group at this year’s competition, only Croatia (24) had fewer shots than Australia (26), who also had the lowest xG at 2.1.
Across their final two group games, Australia failed to score and managed 17 shots with a combined xG value just 0.9. Only in 1974 – their debut tournament – have they been unable to find the back of the net in three successive games at the finals.
“There haven’t been easy games. We’ve been against good opposition, good defensive organisation, so it’s difficult to score. But we’re through now to the knockout stages, so we have to score now to win, so we’ll do that I think,” said striker Tete Yengi.
Egypt are not expected to be able to call upon Ahmed Fatouh due to a hamstring tear, while Mohamed Abdelmonem is also a doubt due to an ankle injury.
Australia are without full-back Jacob Italiano and experienced midfielder Mathew Leckie, who have both suffered tournament-ending injuries.
Socceroos boss Tony Popovic will likely continue with Aziz Behich at left-back and Jordan Bos on the opposite side of the defence.
A last-16 meeting with reigning champions Argentina is likely for the victors of this match, although their opponents Cape Verde proved themselves strong opponents with their draw against Spain in the group stage.
Australia vs Egypt Head-to-Head
Australia and Egypt have met just twice previously in senior competition. The Socceroos won 4-3 on penalties after a goalless draw in the 1987 President’s Cup, while Egypt were 3-0 victors in their most recent encounter, a 2010 friendly.
However, five members of this Australia squad (Kye Rowles, Harry Souttar, Riley McGree, Connor Metcalfe, Cameron Devlin) were part of the team who were eliminated from the Tokyo Olympics by a 2-0 loss to Egypt.
Egypt’s victory over New Zealand was their first meeting with a side from Oceania – although it’s worth noting that Australia come under the AFC confederation these days.
Australia have avoided defeat in their previous World Cup meetings with teams from Africa. They drew 1-1 with Ghana in 2010 and beat Tunisia 1-0 in 2022.
Australia vs Egypt Prediction
The Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations saw Egypt emerge with a slightly higher win probability of 39.7%.
There is not much between that and Australia’s win probability of 28.4%, which is close to the 31.9% chance of the game being level after 90 minutes.
This is the closest tie in the round of 32, with Egypt having a 55.8% chance of progression overall, compared to Australia’s 44.2%.
Australia vs Egypt Squads
Australia: Mathew Ryan, Paul Izzo, Patrick Beach, Milos Degenek, Alessandro Circati, Jacob Italiano, Jordan Bos, Jason Geria, Kai Trewin, Aziz Behich, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Lucas Herrington, Connor Metcalfe, Ajdin Hrustic, Awer Mabil, Aiden O’Neill, Cameron Devlin, Cristian Volpato, Jackson Irvine, Paul Okon-Engstler, Mathew Leckie, Mohamed Touré, Nestory Irankunda, Nishan Velupillay, Tete Yengi.
Egypt: Mohamed El Shenawy, El Mahdy Soliman, Mostafa Shobeir, Mohamed Alaa, Yasser Ibrahim, Mohamed Hany, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Ramy Rabia, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Ahmed Fatouh, Karim Hafez, Tarek Alaa, Emam Ashour, Mostafa Zico, Hamdi Fathy, Mohanad Lasheen, Nabil Emad Dunga, Marwan Attia, Mahmoud Saber, Trezeguet, Hamza Abdelkarim, Mohamed Salah, Haissem Hassan, Ibrahim Adel, Omar Marmoush, Zizo.
Australia vs Egypt Predicted Lineups
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