Borrowers could have to wait until 2027 before a rate cut, according to dozens of Australia’s top economists.
However, the prospect of no further rate hikes looks more likely, with just over half of the 32 economists polled for The Australian Financial Review’s latest quarterly survey predicting that the cash rate had peaked at 4.35 per cent.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock has explicitly refused to rule out further rate hikes this year. Louise Kennerley
HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham told the AFR he expected “an extended pause” on interest rates.
He estimated that it would take until at least mid-2027 for the Reserve Bank to be sufficiently convinced that inflation was heading back to target – particularly after an unexpected uptick in inflation late last year forced the RBA into a sharp about-face on rates.
The analysis comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board held rates at their June meeting, pointing to slowing consumer spending, an unexpected uptick in unemployment and falling house prices as factors.
However, RBA Governor Michele Bullock explicitly refused to rule out taking action at subsequent meetings, saying she would do what was required to deliver price stability, “including increasing the cash rate target further if required”.
The board will likely wait to assess the impact of the ongoing spate over the Strait of Hormuz on inflation figures, with economists warning the economic impact of the Middle East conflict could have a long tail.
All but one of the 32 economists polled by the AFR predicted that the Reserve Bank would hold off on cutting rates until at least early next year, while more than half said it would take until the second half of the year.
While ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank economists suggested rates had peaked at 4.35 per cent, others – including those from AMP and Westpac – tipped not one but two further hikes, with the interest rate reaching 4.85 per cent by the end of this year.
A record 1,538,000 Australians are in mortgage stress. Adobe Stock
The current cash rate is already putting millions of mortgage holders under strain, with more than 1.5 million Australian household at risk of “mortgage stress”.
The risk of mortgage stress is defined as when repayments are higher than a certain percentage of household income.
As of May, more than 65,000 people had contacted the National Debt Helpline this year, with mortgage stress remaining the top reason for calling.