Signing: 5 years, $90 million ($18 million per season); Restricted free agent offer sheet by Philadelphia Flyers
This is one of those overpays that isn’t necessarily a bad idea or a bad overpay.
I get why the Philadelphia Flyers signed Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet in restricted free agency and why the Anaheim Ducks are likely to match it.
From a Flyers’ perspective, this was an opportunity to land a young, franchise-level player they would have never been in a position to draft anytime soon. He also fits in with the other players in their young core (specifically Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone) and can help fill the No. 1 center void they have on their roster.
The only way they even have a chance at a player like this is to overpay in restricted free agency.
Is Carlsson an $18 million-per-year player, and will he be one in the coming years? Probably not. And that, by definition, makes it an overpay. But it’s still a smart move. It’s still a move that is likely to pan out. If you are going to overpay for a player, it is better to overpay for a top-line player at the top of the lineup, because they will still give you big-time value and impact.
It is the overpays in the middle and bottom of the lineup that hurt teams. This is not that.
The big reason the Ducks have been so quiet this offseason is so they could protect themselves and potentially match any offer sheet. They are being tested.