Now that the Origin period is over, there’s suddenly only eight rounds left until the NRL finals for 2026.
Penrith is the only team assured of a top eight spot this far out in a fairly congested ladder.
The Roosters finished eighth last year with 32 points and teams will need at least that many to play finals footy.
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It’s looking like the Melbourne Storm will miss the finals for the first time under Craig Bellamy, with the exception of 2010 when they played for no points due to salary cap breaches.
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder.
Despite being two points behind them on the ladder, the Titans have been given an extremely small chance of making the top eight over the Eels.
Let’s take a look at each team’s run home.
1.PENRITH PANTHERS (32 points, +280)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 88.9%
Remaining games: Broncos (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)
Analysis: Technically, they’re the only team to have guaranteed itself a spot in the finals already. They’re four points ahead of the Warriors and Roosters and have a superior for-and-against so can probably afford to lose two games and still win the minor premiership. Six of the eight teams they play currently sit outside the eight, but of their three losses this season two have come to lowly-ranked teams (Bulldogs and Titans) and the other was to the eighth-placed Cowboys. Injuries, or a rare off night, look to be the biggest barriers to them winning a fifth premiership in six years. They’re unbeaten at home this season and their few injured players are all due back in the next fortnight.
2. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (29 points, +194)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 93.9%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 7.7%
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (A), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: The Warriors have a pretty good run into the finals with five home games and only face one other top-four side in the Panthers. They should be good enough to win their next three to keep the pressure on Penrith for the minor premiership. They face the Panthers in four weeks at home where first place could be on the line. They’re equal on 28 points with the Roosters but have an easier draw according to the Fox Lab.
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3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (28 points, +76)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.3%
Chance of finishing top four: 77.9%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 2.2%
Remaining games: Storm (H), Knights (A), Cowboys, (A), Bulldogs (H), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: Not the easiest run, starting on Friday night with a rejuvenated Storm at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters are part of a pack of teams in contention for a top-four spot and if they make it they will have earned it. They’ve still got to play the Panthers, Knights and Cowboys away along with the dangerous Dolphins and arch-rivals Souths. Their for-and-against is easily the worst of the current top four sides which could cost them a home final in the first week. Sam Walker’s confidence after a good debut Origin series will be a positive.
4. CRONULLA SHARKS (26 points, +123)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 82.6%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 1.2%
Remaining games: Knights (H), Sea Eagles (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: They sent a warning to their premiership rivals on the weekend with a 66-0 demolition job of fellow top-four contender the Dolphins in Redcliffe. They only play two current top eight sides in the run home starting with the Knights this week. A win cements them in the top four. They don’t play any of the top three teams again but will be hoping to meet one of them in the first week of the finals. Craig Fitzgibbon’s troops have made the past two preliminary finals. Can they go a step further in 2026? Nicho Hynes is in form, but needs to shine in a high-pressure finals game. According to the Fox Sports Lab they have the easiest draw for the run home.
Sharks halfback Nicho Hynes is the key man for Cronulla. Picture: NRL ImagesSource: Supplied
5. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (26 points, +39)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 78.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 8.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE
Analysis: It’s a big fortnight coming up for the Knights against two top four contenders in the Sharks and Roosters. They finish with a bye which is handy, but haven’t been at their best away from home and have to travel to Brisbane and Canberra for crucial matches. They’re having a fairly good run with injuries at the moment and Jacob Saifiti and Greg Marzhew will be coming back soon. They have the fourth-hardest run in according to the Fox Sports Lab. Along with the Cowboys, they’re one of just two teams currently in the top eight to concede more than 400 points this season.
6. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (24 points, +86)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 83.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 15.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Storm (H), Sharks (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)
Analysis: Five home games will be a welcome sight after poor away form this season, but the teams they do face at home are rated harder to beat than the teams they play on the road. Not the hardest run in according to the Fox Sports Lab which predicts they leapfrog the Knights to run fifth. They’re rated a 15.2 per cent chance of making the top four. It might seem unlikely, but last year the Broncos were in sixth with six rounds to play and only rated a 5.9 per cent chance of making the top four and they did despite being four points off fourth. Souths are just two points behind Cronulla at the moment. They should also get Latrell Mitchell back either this week or next which is a must if they’re to be a force in the finals.
7. DOLPHINS (24 points, +64)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 81.7%
Chance of finishing top four: 10.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (H), BYE, Dragons (A), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: Coming off a 66-0 flogging at the hands of the Sharks has cast doubts over their premiership credentials. But the Fox Sports Lab says they have one of the easier draws heading into the finals. They’re well favoured to win their home games and throw in a bye and they’re set to play in their first finals series. Last week’s loss severely hampered their top-four hopes and they’re now just a 10.2 per cent chance of getting a second chance in the finals. Isaiya Katoa is due back in Round 23 and it can’t come quick enough.
The Dolphins need Isaiya Katoa to make a charge towards a premiership Picture: NRL PhotosSource: The Courier Mail
8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, -16)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 76.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 7.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Broncos (H), Roosters (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: A crucial away win over Manly has got them into the top eight, which is where the Fox Sports Lab predicts they’ll stay. They have the second-easiest run to the finals and are rated a good chance to win all four of their home games. Even their away games aren’t the hardest and Tom Dearden’s return is timely after a long lay-off with an ankle injury. It’s no coincidence they’ve won their past two on the back of good defensive efforts and they only have to travel to Sydney once in the final eight rounds and it’s against the lowly Parramatta.
9. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22 points, +132)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 61.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 4.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Sharks (H), BYE, Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)
Analysis: Manly have fallen out of the top eight after letting the game slip against the Cowboys on Sunday at home. And the Fox Sports Lab predicts they won’t get back in. Their draw is favourable, particularly for their home games, but their road trips aren’t easy ones. The loss of Luke Brooks has hampered their finals charge and they face the Warriors away to end the season. They’ve only won two of their past seven and are fading after a prosperous ‘Fozball’ period under new coach Kieran Foran.
10. MELBOURNE STORM (20 points, -2)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 8.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (H), BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)
Analysis: Unfortunately for the Storm, the Fox Sports Lab says they’ve got the hardest run home, starting this Friday night against the Roosters away. They also have to play the Panthers again after a 50-10 flogging earlier in the season. In a crushing blow, Cameron Munster has been ruled out for four to six weeks having undergone surgery on his knee after suffering a cartilage injury. They sit two wins outside the top eight and are favoured to miss the finals for the first time under Craig Bellamy, with the exception of 2010 when they had their points stripped for salary cap breaches.
Cameron Munster may be out until the finals in what is a huge blow to Melbourne (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
11. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (20 points, -102)
Predicted finish: 12th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 8.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Tigers (H), Warriors (H), Storm (A), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)
Analysis: Last week’s loss to Canberra may have ended their finals hopes. Another loss this week to the Tigers almost certainly will. The Fox Sports Lab rates their run home the fifth toughest with games against top-four sides the Warriors, Panthers and Roosters. Villiame Kikau and Stephen Crichton’s immediate availability will be key. Arguably their best forward all season, Sitili Tupouniua is out until Round 25. They can’t find consistency while they’re chopping and changing their spine all the time.
12. CANBERRA RAIDERS (18 points, -91)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 1.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Panthers (A), Knights (H), Sharks (A), Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)
Analysis: With a bye in hand, the Raiders are predicted to finish in front of the Bulldogs, but the Fox Sports Lab rates them just a 1.9 per cent chance of making the finals. It’s a big fall for last year’s minor premiers who have only won three from eight at home this season. A positive is that they’re injury-free. They play the Panthers, Knights, Sharks and Cowboys away from home which may be too much for them to overcome.
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13. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -130)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.3%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Raiders (A), Eels (H), BYE, Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)
Analysis: Since Jarome Luai announced he was leaving to go to the Chiefs, the Tigers have slipped from third to 13th and that’s where the Fox Sports Lab predicts they’ll stay. And now he’s off to the Eels next season after being granted an early release. Benji Marshall’s men only have two more home games against the Eels and Dragons which are winnable. The problem is they finish up the season on the road against top-eight sides the Roosters, Panthers and Cowboys. They’re rated a 0.3 per cent chance of ending their 15-year finals drought. It could get ugly after such a bright start.
14. BRISBANE BRONCOS (16 points, -126)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.3%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Cowboys (A), Knights (H), Dolphins (A), Warriors (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: They have to win all eight games to make the finals which is why they’re only rated a 0.3 per cent chance of making the top eight. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Fox Sports Lab rates their run home the second hardest in the league. Canberra’s fall from grace has only been topped by the Broncos whose season will be over on Thursday night if they lose to Penrith at CommBank Stadium. The next five teams they play are sitting in the top eight. The back-to-back losses to the Dragons and Titans in rounds 13 and 14 at Suncorp Stadium were the killer blow.
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15. PARRAMATTA EELS (16 points, -176)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: BYE, Panthers (H), Tigers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)
Analysis: According to the Fox Sports Lab, their season is already over despite having a bye and being on the same amount of points as the Broncos. That’s according to the computer simulation. After this week’s bye they play five teams currently in the top eight. But next week they should get back Mitchell Moses, Junior Paulo, Will Penisini and Ronald Volkman. They’re the only team in the NRL who have conceded more than 500 points this season. Once again, they haven’t had Moses on the field long enough this year to go with a horror injury toll. J’maine Hopgood, who did his ACL earlier in the year, has been a massive loss in the middle of the park.
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16. GOLD COAST TITANS (14 points, -112)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)
Analysis: Unbelievably, the Fox Sports Lab simulation has given Josh Hannay a 0.1 per cent chance of making the finals in his first year in charge of the club. Perhaps a rare win over Penrith last month threw a spanner into the works. A big run to the finals will be helped by the fact they play six of their final eight at home. Despite this, their draw is still rated the third hardest because six teams they play are currently in the top eight. They’re a pretty healthy squad though and were unlucky to lose last week in Melbourne.
17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (10 points, -239)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Warriors (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H), Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)
Analysis: While the Fox Sports Lab thinks the Titans can produce a minor miracle late in the season, it doesn’t think the Dragons can avoid the wooden spoon. They’re rated an 84 per cent chance of running last. They only play away three times now and two of those games are in Sydney. Promising halfback Kade Reed is due back this week and it will be good for him to get more NRL experience before next year. They’ve made some impressive signings for next season, but it’s been a year to forget since Round 1 in Las Vegas. Mad Monday can’t come soon enough.