Would another NHL expansion draft dilute the rest of the league too much? Is it even possible to build a competitive roster through that process in today’s NHL?

With the NHL in the exploratory phases of expanding to either Austin or Houston, those questions could actually get answered. Today, we’re going to test the waters to get an early gauge of what a 33rd team could realistically look like.

Most expansion teams haven’t been immediate threats to the contender’s circle. Then the Vegas Golden Knights came along.

A lot of luck went into Vegas’ early success, including William Karlsson popping off in Year 1 with the team, shooting a career-high 23 percent and scoring 43 goals. But there was a lot of behind-the-scenes work to get Karlsson and to keep both Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo in Columbus. A first, a second and David Clarkson’s contract were a part of the arrangement. That was one of many side deals the Golden Knights made to better their fortunes.

Pittsburgh paid Vegas a second-rounder to pick Marc-André Fleury. The Florida Panthers dumped Reilly Smith to the Golden Knights after they selected Jonathan Marchessault. In exchange for drafting Clayton Stoner and taking on his contract, Vegas landed prospect Shea Theodore.

By 2021, when it was the Seattle Kraken’s turn, general managers weren’t nearly as generous or naive. And Seattle came in with a completely different mindset, anyway, focusing on the long game.

Any future expansion teams will benefit from learning from these two fairly recent experiences when creating their own path forward. Let’s say that path starts in the 2027-28 season. With protection lists for all 32 teams in place, it’s time to draft the 33rd NHL franchise.

The rules

Similar to the protection lists, we are staying consistent with the set of rules Vegas and Seattle had to follow with the expansion draft.

This team must select one player from all 32 teams and must select at least 14 forwards, nine defenders and three goalies.
Twenty of those players must be under contract for the 2027-28 season.
There is a negotiating window with exposed free agents before the draft.
The aggregate of those player contracts must fall between 60 and 100 percent of the 2026-27 salary cap.
No drafted players can be bought out in Year 1.
Forwards

We started by looking down the middle, and two pending UFAs stood out: Ryan O’Reilly and Karlsson, two playmaking defensive centers who are still cooking. With O’Reilly, we can sell the idea of signing a mid-term contract, in a tax-free state, with trade protection. The allure of Karlsson, aside from his on-ice ability, is his experience in this type of situation.

Behind those two veterans, Ryan McLeod’s an ideal 3C out of Buffalo. Then we targeted some up-and-coming centers that can glow up in new surroundings and eventually help balance some age-related concerns with O’Reilly and Karlsson. Shane Wright, Oliver Kapanen and Matthew Poitras all could start on the wing and grow into mainstay roles, potentially down the middle. With more certainty around them in O’Reilly, Karlsson and McLeod, no center has to be rushed into a role above their depth. At best, this gives the new team a deep, versatile lineup. At worst, if it doesn’t work on the ice as planned, it gives management the chance to deal from a position of strength. Center depth is coveted around the league, and any of these players could be dealt to address other areas of weakness.

Rounding out the middle of the ice, Ryan Poehling was honestly the best player available out of Anaheim. Zack Ostapchuk is either bonus depth or a player bound for the NHL.

Finding true play-drivers on the wings was the greater challenge here — on the left, there weren’t many offensive stars to pick from behind Valeri Nichushkin. On the right, there weren’t many defensively responsible wingers after Pavel Buchnevich. That made both of those veterans easy choices, with some depth that ideally can grow into similar roles.

Ultimately, we went with Eetu Luostarinen, who has grown into a quietly effective middle-sixer in Florida, and a utility player in Trevor Moore. Justin Hryckowian shows promise of being able to level up into a similar role after showing traits similar to that of players such as Matt Calvert, Jesper Fast and Connor Brown in Dallas this past season.

Initially, we planned on drafting Jack Quinn as a scoring winger, but since we are prioritizing center depth and went with McLeod, this side of the lineup primarily features pivots shifting to the wing. With Justin Sourdif alongside Luostarinen and Karlsson, the design for a shutdown second line is in place. Wright and Poitras could add an offensive spark to the bottom six if they can progress in new surroundings.

To round things out, waiver eligibility was prioritized. That’s why Jonathan Lekkerimaki is here. The same is true for Isak Rosen; he got the nod from the Winnipeg Jets over Brad Lambert and Nikita Chibrikov because he, at least, cooked in the AHL over the last couple of seasons.

Defense

We fiddled with the overall makeup a lot here, and the result will be a major strength of the roster. For now, anyway. Age is a pretty large concern for many of the defenders selected, but for the time being, there’s still a fair bit of top-four upside.

Ryan McDonagh, Dougie Hamilton, Shayne Gostisbehere and Ryan Shea were the main group we tried to build around — all of whom can move the needle. McDonagh still has strong shutdown chops, Shea is steady and Hamilton and Gostisbehere carry the necessary offensive upside to get the most out of the defense group.

That left some holes on the right side, and filling those out wasn’t as easy. Artem Zub and Rasmus Ristolainen were both considered, but their UFA status meant some uncertainty; we already had Gostisbehere as a UFA on that front. We took Josh Manson and Trevor van Riemsdyk for their cost certainty on reasonable deals for that reason. With those spots filled, it made more sense to go with David Jiricek and his potential over Ristolainen.

The rest of the defense group are all fliers to some degree. The upside of Matthew Robertson (and Jiricek too) could mean adding future value via trade for some of the veterans currently blocking them.

Goalies

Looking through every team available, Filip Gustavsson immediately stood out as this team’s likely starter. He’s the best goalie available and can start games at volume. That’s a huge plus here.

We briefly considered Joseph Woll to pair with him, but given the other backup options as well as other players available from the Flyers, it made more sense to go with Devin Cooley and Sebastian Cossa. Cooley was lights out in a backup role last season while Cossa has a first-round pedigree. Between the two, the new expansion team should be well set between the pipes.

To round things out, we needed some organizational depth. After some lights-out play for the Calder Trophy-winning Toronto Marlies — and thanks to a very weak crop of other options — Artur Akhtyamov felt like an easy choice to make. Leevi Merilainen has some solid AHL numbers and was great in 2024-25, but his stock has obviously fallen a bit after last season. At 23, though, his upside is still worth a shot.

The final result is a pretty mid roster that probably finds itself firmly in the playoff mix in Year 1 thanks to its depth. But without much top-end talent, it’s possible it doesn’t play out that way.

There’s always a chance general managers galaxy-brain their protection lists too much and leave hidden gems exposed. So for now, consider this roster the baseline for what a team in Austin or Houston could look like. We operated without any side deals or transactions, similar to Seattle. But embracing some of that Golden Knights’ mentality could be the key to actually landing real needle-movers off the bat. As much as teams don’t need to dump salary as often in a growing cap world, that could change in a year, with contract values on the rise. Maybe that opens the door for a new team to swoop in and force opposing teams to pay its way out of those problems. That’s what any incoming franchise has to hope for at this point, if the goal is to have a relatively competitive squad in Year 1.

Here is who every team lost in the 2027 Expansion Draft.