As of Tuesday morning, 19 teams are within three games of an MLB postseason spot. The Giants are not one of them, which means they’ll be popular at the trade deadline. I’d like to think every July, the entire front office has bandoliers strapped to them with 29 cell phones, one for every other team. It might make them look like tactical cosplaying dorks, but one can never be too careful. This might be the most important deadline for the Giants since they traded for Jake Peavy in 2014.
Let’s look at these contending teams, then. Ooooh, congratulations on your non-disaster of a season; I’m sure it’s really exciting (rolls eyes). No, seriously, congrats; now cough up your best prospects.
I set the cutoff for these teams at “within three games of the playoffs” because that includes the Astros and Mariners, who are explicitly buying, and excludes teams such as the Tigers and Reds, who can’t possibly have an all-in strategy right now.
Also, I’m using Wins Above Average for the team ranks, mostly because it’s just so danged convenient over at Baseball-Reference to do it by team and position, but also because it’s a rock-solid stat that includes the state of the entire team, not just the starter at a position.
Here’s your primer for next week. This team needs X badly. The Giants have X. They should chat.
New York Yankees
Needs: 3B (25th in WAA)
Luxury tax status: Over for third straight season (max. penalties)
Farm system rank: 20th
One trade target to get familiar with: Ben Hess, RHP
Carlos Lagrange would have been my pick for the easy ZZ Top jokes and closer stuff, but he’s dealing with a shoulder injury, which is enough to scare just about any team off. Go with Hess, then, as a starter the Giants have seen a lot in the Double-A Eastern League. He’s not exactly close to the majors, but he’d be instant depth at the right level for it.
Tampa Bay Rays
Needs: 2B (20th), CF (21st)
Luxury tax status: lol
Farm system rank: 16th
One trade target to get familiar with: Brody Hopkins, RHP
Hopkins is a right-handed starter who came into this season as the Rays’ third-ranked prospect. He started the season as a top-100 prospect (No. 83), but — hold on, let me take a giant sip of water to spit out — has walked 77 batters in 81 innings this year. He’d have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so the Rays would love to have one fewer roster decision to make. The Giants’ decisions shouldn’t be nearly as painful, so 40-man considerations aren’t as important to them. (They’ve already made a couple of their decisions early, with the promotions of Jonah Cox and Drew Cavanaugh, too.)
Also, the Rays should get Luis Arraez. They know this. Everyone in the what-if exercise knew this. If there’s a farm system to study, this might be the one.
Boston Red Sox
Needs: SS (26th), LF (22nd)
Luxury tax status: Over for second straight season
Farm system rank: 10th
One trade target to get familiar with: Hayden Mullins, LHP
Mullins is a funky-throwing left-hander whose fastball plays up because of deception and carry, but whose ERA has finally caught up to his walk rate. He’d need to be protected in this year’s Rule 5 draft.
Chicago White Sox
Needs: DH (25th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 8th
One trade target to get familiar with: Mathias LaCombe, RHP
LaCombe is from France, and good things happen when the Giants bring French-born baseball folks into the organization, so start there. He’s not exactly close to the majors, even though he’s already 24, because he’s thrown just over 80 innings as a professional since being drafted in 2023. After a strong start in the High-A South Atlantic League, the White Sox challenged him with a move up to Double A.
Cleveland Guardians
Needs: 1B (28th), OF (19th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 5th
One trade target to get familiar with: Justin Campbell, RHP
Campbell was a Compensation Round A pick of the Guardians in 2022, and he just made his debut with the organization, if that gives you any hint about his health issues as a professional. He’s currently on the IL, even, albeit for a less-than-scary oblique issue.
Justin Campbell has had trouble staying healthy since leaving Oklahoma State, but he has reached Triple A this season. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
He’s their version of Reggie Crawford, and they’ll have to make a Rule 5 decision on him. They’ve moved him all the way up to Triple A in his debut season, signaling that the organization has at least some confidence in him.
Texas Rangers
Needs: 2B (23rd), SP (23rd)
Luxury tax status: Under
Farm system rank: 26th
One trade target to get familiar with: Dalton Pence, LHP
The Giants could have Hunter Pence interview Dalton Pence and Hunter Mense on a broadcast, just to confuse listeners for the rest of their lives. More importantly, Pence is an upper-minors left-hander with a fastball that plays up. Not that close, but definitely not that far. If you sense a theme with these prospects, you’re right to.
Houston Astros
Needs: 2B (27th), OF (24th), SP (29th)
Luxury tax status: Under
Farm system rank: 28th
One trade target to get familiar with: Ethan Pecko, RHP
It’s a quality baseball name, of course, but Pecko would need to be added to the Astros’ 40-man roster after the season, and he’s done just enough to make that a brutal decision. He’s not a stuff monster, but he would be depth where the Giants need it.
Seattle Mariners
Needs: 1B (27th), 3B (24th), RF (24th)
Luxury tax status: Under
Farm system rank: 3rd
One trade target to get familiar with: Luis Castillo, RHP
The Castillo-for-Chapman idea is both incredibly complicated and incredibly fascinating, with the salaries helping the deal instead of hurting it, and both teams trading from relative depth (pending Casey Schmitt’s MRI, of course). The Giants could probably sign Casey McGehee to close the circle, too.
An Emerson Hancock-for-Heliot Ramos deal also makes a fair amount of sense. But if you’re desperate for a prospect, check out right-handed reliever Charlie Beilenson, who has closer stuff.
Atlanta Braves
Needs: 3B (23rd), SS (21st)
Luxury tax status: Currently over for first time
Farm system rank: 27th
One trade target to get familiar with: Owen Murphy, RHP
Murphy is a 2022 first-round pick who’s had a miserable time getting his professional career going because of injuries. However, he was good enough in Triple A this season to earn a major-league promotion. This is the kind of pitcher the Giants could get in a much bigger deal, for one of their players with a lot more team control, than in a deal for someone such as Robbie Ray or Arraez.
Philadelphia Phillies
Needs: Hitters (29th in OPS+)
Luxury tax status: Over for third straight season (max. penalties)
Farm system rank: 15th
One trade target to get familiar with: Andrew Painter, RHP
Painter was the 13th pick in the 2021 draft and became a top-20 prospect after a standout 2022 season but lost virtually all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons to Tommy John surgery. He returned last season to pitch nearly the whole year in Triple A and earned a spot on the Phillies’ Opening Day roster this March. He was pummeled in the majors this season (7.06 ERA), but has had an uptick in velocity and effectiveness back in the minors.
Andrew Painter’s first taste of the big leagues didn’t go well, but he’s been a top-50 prospect for much of his minor-league career and still has lots of upside. (Terence Lewis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Like Murphy in the Braves capsule above, Painter would be a part of a larger, more surprising deal; however, he seems to be coming up often in trade talks.
Washington Nationals
Needs: SP (19th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 6th
One trade target to get familiar with: Jackson Kent, LHP
The Giants don’t match up well with the Nationals at all, unless they’re talking starting pitching. Kent seems like the kind of low-ceiling, higher-floor left-hander that moves in a deal for a pitcher like Ray or Tyler Mahle, if that sort of deal appeals to them.
Miami Marlins
Needs: 1B (25th), 3B (26th), OF (23rd)
Luxury tax status: They read about it in The Athletic once
Farm system rank: 22nd
One trade target to get familiar with: Kemp Alderman, 1B/OF
Teams cannot live on pitching alone, of course, and if you look at the Giants’ system, you’ll see a little opening for a first baseman and/or outfielder with some pop. Here’s one, with Alderman holding his own in Triple A, but not exactly dominating his way into untouchable status. Of course, the Marlins started the second half with a miserable 12-game losing streak that pretty much knocked them out of contention, so they’re only here by the grace of the cutoff. They’re probably selling, if anything.
Still, nothing is stopping the Marlins from just taking Rafael Devers. Like, just take him and score more runs. The Giants should probably keep him to score more runs here, but I’m just saying, the Marlins can and should do that sort of thing every so often.
Milwaukee Brewers
Needs: RF (22nd), 3B (20th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 1st
One trade target to get familiar with: Jett Williams, INF/OF
The Brewers have the best position prospect in baseball, a shortstop by the name of Jesús Made. However, they also have shortstop Cooper Pratt, who is already in the majors and doing swell things. And they have Luis Peña, a terrific shortstop prospect himself who is playing third base at times in deference to Made. Williams always moved around the diamond, even when he was a top prospect with the Mets (he was traded for Freddy Peralta in the offseason). But the Brewers are setting themselves up for a bit of a logjam up the middle.
That said, these two teams don’t match up well in needs and available players. If you’re expecting a cross-clubhouse trade over the next couple of days, be prepared to be disappointed.
Chicago Cubs
Needs: SP (30th)
Luxury tax status: Currently over for first time
Farm system rank: 18th
One trade target to get familiar with: Brandon Birdsell, RHP
The only baseball truism you should care about is that teams should always chase the funny bits. The Twins should have drafted Tyler Rogers in any number of Rule 5 Drafts to give them literal twins in the bullpen. The Giants should have drafted Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton with the compensatory pick they got for reliever Mike Stanton. They also should have drafted Tyler Soderstrom and Cody Bellinger because of their dads’ respective ties to the Giants. The Giants should have signed Zack Wheeler as a bit, and it would have made them much better this season, when they needed it the most.
I don’t know if having a Birdsell and a Birdsong in a future rotation is enough to meet this threshold, quite honestly. But the Giants have to try, dang it. They have to try.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Needs: 1B (21st), DH (29th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 4th
One trade target to get familiar with: Easton Carmichael, C
Carmichael is a catcher with some offensive skills (and a little speed!) who isn’t quite major-league ready defensively. That’s perfect for an organization that’s promoted a couple of catchers and traded one away this season.
St. Louis Cardinals
Needs: 3B (29th), LF (25th), CF (28th)
Luxury tax status: Comfortably under
Farm system rank: 11th
One trade target to get familiar with: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP (formerly a switch pitcher)
If we could all handle Mike Yastrzemski, Jeff Samardzija and A.J. Pierzynski, we could handle this. This is the first full season with Cijntje as a full-time right-hander, as he was originally a switch-pitching prospect. It’s not impossible to think he could break out the ol’ two-way glove for a hitter who is especially vulnerable to left-handed pitching, but for now, he’s a raw, hard-throwing starting prospect.
And a pretty good one, at that, albeit one with some serious command wrinkles to work out. If the Giants get a couple of majors-ready starters in other deals, a just-under-the-surface starter like Cijntje would make sense in the system.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Needs: Comeuppance, a sense of humility, someone to knock ’em down a peg that’s what
Luxury tax status: So far over, for so long, and they don’t care, nothing matters, nothing has ever mattered
Farm system rank: 2nd, of course
One trade target to get familiar with: James Tibbs III, OF/1B
Just a little gallows humor to lighten the mood, ha ha. Unless it had the opposite effect and made you extremely grumpy and pessimistic. Oh, well. Too late!
But, also, the Giants aren’t likely to trade within the division, so don’t worry about the Dodgers. I mean, worry about them, especially in an existential sense, but not as it relates to the deadline. The Padres and Diamondbacks aren’t out of the question, but it’s hard to see them coming over the top of an offer from any of the above teams.
It’s time to start boning up on some prospects around the league, though. They’re about to become Giants prospects soon. It’s been a while since there’s been a sell-off this obvious, so dive in.