The AFL ladder isn’t telling us the full truth, and one big lie has become glaringly obvious.
And it’s set to throw a spanner in the September works, as Saints great Leigh Montagna explained on Wednesday night.
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Entering Round 21, reigning grand finalist Geelong sits ninth on the ladder with a modest 11-8 record.
And if it were any other year than this one, the footy landscape would be in meltdown over the underperforming Cats.
Thursday night’s Collingwood-Geelong clash would have been billed as critical for Chris Scott’s mob, sitting outside the top eight.
But any concerns over the Cats’ flag candidacy have been masked by the expanded finals format, with Scott’s men a near certainty to play finals.
Still, the overwhelming evidence suggests Geelong is far better than the ninth-best team.
“Sometimes, I think the ladder can lie,” Montagna began on Fox Footy’s First Crack Preview.
“And I could make a case that the Cats are still the second-best team in this competition, and probably the side that the premiership contenders won’t want to face.”
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Against the competition’s top nine teams this season, Geelong has played 11 games for seven wins and four losses.
And in those 11 matches, the Cats have ranked first for scoring, third for points against, first for ball movement, first for defending ball movement, and first for inside-50 differential.
“As we get to finals, we want to start drilling down on the best versus the best, because that is the true indicator of how your football stacks up,” Montagna said.
“Only (the Cats) and Fremantle have a winning record against the top nine. Every other team has got a 50-50 record or worse.
“You can see that their profile is the best in the competition – it’s actually better than the Dockers’ profile.”
Leigh Montagna explains why the AFL ladder is lying to us.Source: FOX SPORTS
Three of Geelong’s four losses to top-nine opposition have come by incredibly slim margins; falling to Hawthorn by a point, Adelaide by a point, Fremantle by nine points.
But despite the Cats’ fearsome credentials against top teams, it’s unlikely to make a difference in the premiership race if they can’t clinch a top-six finish to avoid playing an extra final.
“It all comes down to having to win this game against Collingwood, because they had to run the table,” Montagna said.
“Once they went on that run and lost some games, and they lost Jeremy Cameron, for them to finish in the top six – where we know you have to be to win the flag – they had to win their last six.
“They’ve ticked off two, against St Kilda and Melbourne, (and) this is the third.
“Their last three have got some of the bottom teams, which I think they’ll take care of business against, and then I think again we’ll be talking about them as a premiership contender.”
The dual All-Australian holds faith in the Cats to win it all even if they finish fifth or sixth.
“I still think so. I think that it gives them a really good chance,” he said.
“And depending on who finishes fourth, what it might look like – they’ll take care of the wildcard team in the second week of finals.
“And then who knows what it could look like for the Cats.”
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Montagna also singled out coach Chris Scott’s recent moves to aid the side in recent weeks.
Shannon Neale’s role has been tweaked, while two forwards – after VFL stints – are back in the fray and paying dividends.
“I love what Chris Scott has been able to do with this team (after) losing two of your four best players in Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron,” Montagna said.
“He’s had to make some adjustments, and what he’s done with Neale I think has been significant.
“Neale has always been the athlete that can get high up the ground – he’s decided to play him deeper, particularly last week against Melbourne.
“And he’s brought back the three musketeers. He’s now got (Gryan) Miers, (Brad) Close and (Shaun) Mannagh back in this team and back in really good form.”
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That trio has collectively nailed the ‘money kick’ over the past three seasons – ranking third, fourth and eighth respectively for marks from inside-50 kicks throughout that period.
“The most important kick in footy … this sort of stuff going inside 50 is what separates them from the rest of the competition,” Montagna added.
“Between the three of them (against the Demons) they had 10 score assists.
“And what it allowed was Shannon Neale to get the most looks inside 50 he’s had for the season – he had nine targets inside 50, 10 of his 13 disposals were inside 50.
“I just think it’s a really nice look about them, so I love the way Chris Scott has been able to manufacture the new makeshift forward line, and I think it’s going to hold them in really good stead.
“It’s going to be a massive game (on Thursday night), and if they take care of Collingwood, just watch out, because they’ll run the table, and they’ll be in red-hot form.”