Four clubs are in the fight for the last finals spot on offer, and one clearly has the most at stake as a season-defining Round 22 fixture awaits.
It comes as Thursday night’s Collingwood vs. Geelong match juxtaposes this year’s wildcard reality with the traditional finals format.
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With four weeks remaining in the home-and-away season, all but one of the four wildcard finals spots have been sewn up.
The Western Bulldogs (seventh on the ladder), Collingwood (eighth) and Geelong (ninth) have all claimed valuable wins in recent weeks, creating a collective buffer between themselves and the chasing pack.
And that pack comprises four teams.
The Saints currently sit 10th, two wins and percentage behind the Cats. And after their victory over North Melbourne last Sunday, they have the upper hand on Carlton (11th on percentage), GWS (a game and percentage behind St Kilda) and the Kangaroos (a game and percentage behind).
Foxfooty.com.au assesses all four clubs’ chances, based on their profiles, recent form and remaining fixtures.
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THE RACE FOR 10: CONTENDERS STOCKTAKE
It’s hard to go past St Kilda as the favourite to play on wildcard weekend, not only because of its percentage advantage and favourable fixture, but also its brand.
The Saints are confronted with tough upcoming fixtures against Sydney and Carlton, before a smoother finish to the regular season against Richmond and Gold Coast – both in Melbourne.
Ross Lyon has his charges in good shape, too, propped up especially by stoppage dominance.
Their clearance-to-score rate ranks sixth in the competition, while they sit third for clearance differential and first in the AFL for contested possession differential.
In fact, their average contested possession differential return of +7.6 is their second-best season on record, per Champion Data.
Foxfooty.com.au’s The Run Home currently predicts the Saints to finish in 10th position, almost one full win ahead of the Blues.
Assuming they fall to the Swans this Saturday, three wins from their last three games – clinching the magic number 12 – would almost certainly ensure they claim 10th spot.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – MAY 28: Ross Lyon, Senior Coach of the Saints looks on during the round 12 AFL match between St Kilda Saints and Hawthorn Hawks at Marvel Stadium, on May 28, 2026, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Carlton has one of the toughest runs home of any team in the competition, preparing to face Brisbane at Marvel Stadium this Saturday before a do-or-die clash with St Kilda, then closing matchups with the Bulldogs and Fremantle (both at Marvel Stadium).
If the Blues can claim a Brisbane-sized scalp this weekend – with the Lions to be without Ty Gallop due to suspension – it would turn St Kilda vs. Carlton next week effectively into a finals-clincher.
But with both the Saints and Blues tipped to lose this weekend, Round 22 is set to be all-important regardless.
Simply, if the Blues beat the Saints, they’ll be in the box seat to make the finals. And vice versa if they lose.
The situation around Carlton’s Round 24 clash with Fremantle at Marvel Stadium is also intriguing, as it may turn out to be far more winnable than originally thought, given the Dockers – who should be locked into top spot – will likely manage key players for the cross-country trip.
From a game-style perspective, the case for Carlton is it has improved several parts of its game under Josh Fraser, headlined by a massive uptick in its ball movement.
Since Round 5, it’s ranked first in the competition for defensive-50-to-inside-50 success rate, per Champion Data.
But last weekend, it was the Blues’ forward-50 execution that overwhelmed Gold Coast.
According to Champion’s tracking, Carlton’s 38 points scored from forward-50 clearances against the Suns was its best return on record.
Further, its +16 differential from forward-50 contests was its third-best ever return.
For the season, the Blues rank sixth for points from stoppage.
They’re getting a lot of things right under Fraser, and if Harry McKay can get himself right to play a role against a Gallop-less Lions backline, it should make a big difference in their plot to secure a season-defining scalp.
The Run Home is predicting the Blues to finish the season in 11th position, but that projection could change dramatically with an upset win at Docklands.
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA – MAY 08: Patrick Cripps of the Blues looks on during the round nine AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Carlton Blues at The Gabba, on May 08, 2026, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
The GWS Giants have toiled through a season plagued by injury and form inconsistency.
They were unable to make something sustainable from their back-to-back wins against Fremantle and Geelong a matter of weeks ago.
And Finn Callaghan is the latest big name to join the list of ailing difference-makers on the sidelines, with matchups against Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, West Coast and Adelaide to finish their campaign.
That disastrous loss to Essendon has really come back to bite, and is emblematic of their year, but they certainly aren’t mathematically out of the fight.
The reality is, they’ve got winnable games upcoming. And if they manage to beat Port Adelaide this weekend – and the Saints and Blues lose – the temperamental light switch of optimism will be back on.
The issue is that their brand has been so hit and miss.
GWS’ transition game is still elite, ranking second for ball movement, but when the Orange Tsunami isn’t allowed to get going, other parts of its game aren’t holding up.
At the forefront of that is their stoppage inferiority, with Adam Kingsley’s Giants ranking third-last at clearance.
Against the Swans last weekend, they conceded 65 points from clearance – the Giants’ sixth-worst stoppage return in the past 10 years, per Champion Data.
They were also -21 for clearances; fourth-worst over the same period.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – MAY 09: Cameron Zurhaar of the Kangaroos celebrates a goal during the 2026 AFL Round 09 match between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium on May 9, 2026 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by James Wiltshire/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
North Melbourne is the comfortable outsider in this race after a frustrating loss to St Kilda, and with the hardest remaining fixture in the game.
The Roos’ percentage of just 89.6 is set to worsen after a meeting with Hawthorn in Tasmania, before subsequent clashes with the Bulldogs, Geelong and Sydney (at the SCG) to close their 2026 account.
Thus, for a team that’s managed just one win against teams above them on the ladder, we’re just about ready to rule the Roos out of finals contention.
The Kangas have made strides with their ball movement this year – ranking above AFL average with a nice balance of fast and slow play – but it’s their defence which continues to let them down.
For the season, North Melbourne ranks 16th for intercept-to-score against, 16th for clearance-to-score against, 15th for half-back-to-score against, and 14th for score-per-inside-50 against.
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LOSERS’ FATE
Footy purgatory awaits the three clubs that fall short in the race, with the 11th and 12th finishers in particular dealt a tougher hand next year.
That’s because they’ll get a harder draw than the team that ends up 13th.
Eleventh and twelfth will receive a ‘middle six’ fixture next year, meaning they could cop double-ups against as many as four teams in that bracket of the ladder.
Currently, the Bulldogs, Collingwood and Geelong sit in the 7th-12th group.
The 13th-place finisher, though, would find itself in the same bracket as the likes of Richmond, Essendon and West Coast.
But looking at the bigger picture, each of the three clubs that miss out will have questions to answer about their direction.
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St Kilda would be left feeling bitterly disappointed if it got ousted for the 10th spot, especially from its current position of power.
And assuming they lose to Sydney this weekend, the Saints will have lost all 10 games this season against top-10 opponents, laying bare their struggles against the best.
It’d leave the football department questioning whether its big-name acquisitions have made enough of a winning difference.
And they certainly won’t be rewarded with a draft prize for their middling year.
An 11th-placed finish would give them the eighth natural selection in November – which would then be bumped down further given the club-tied guns at the top of the order.
The Blues aren’t strangers to the reality that their list as currently constructed isn’t good enough to beat the very best, and it’ll see some more change this October with Graham Wright and Chris Davies leading the charge.
But they’ve been playing with house money since installing Fraser as the interim coach, and eight wins from his first 10 games in charge will see Carlton’s end to the season looked upon more favourably than not.
And by finishing outside the top 10, the Blues will also retain the 10 per cent discount on matching a rival bid for Cody Walker in the top three.
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The Giants are really the most interesting conversation in terms of the change that could come at the end of the year – whether they sneak into the finals or not.
There’ll be questions internally about whether the current GWS core – which has taken it to the finals in four of the past five seasons – has run its race.
Skipper Toby Greene remains unsigned for next year and could be the huge offseason domino to fall, while key forwards Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi and Max Gruzewski are also yet to sign new deals, and star midfielder Tom Green is being hunted by Tasmania.
Over at Arden Street, the Kangaroos will again be confronted with the nagging need to upgrade in the back half next season.
But holistically, this year has represented tangible improvement, even if their final tally is eight wins.
Because while they haven’t beaten an opponent of serious quality this year, they’ve shown an ability to compete with the better sides – testing Collingwood, Melbourne and Sydney among them – and a semblance of an offensive identity.
Still, going into what’ll be Alastair Clarkson’s fifth year as senior coach, there’ll be mounting pressure on the four-time premiership winner to deliver a first Roos finals berth in 11 years.
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AND HOW ABOUT THIS WILD(CARD) REALITY …
Collingwood and Geelong meet on Thursday night at the MCG, and it’ll rightly be built up as a high-stakes blockbuster.
But it wouldn’t compare to if the situation were the same this time last year.
If the eighth-placed Magpies and ninth-placed Cats met in Round 21, 2025, the game would have been billed as critical for both clubs.
“If we didn’t have the wildcard, we’d be going, ‘What’s going on with Geelong?’” former Hawks sharpshooter Ben Dixon posed on First Crack Preview.
Only two premiership points split the powerhouse clubs, and with three fixtures left in the season after this one, the stakes would have been enormous.
A win for Collingwood would have left Geelong in some strife, while a triumph for the team in hoops would’ve flipped the finals landscape in the home stretch.
Instead, this year’s expanded format sees both the Pies and Cats ingrained in the September picture, with the latter currently two games and percentage ahead of the Saints.
“I think this is the beauty of it … if they were sitting ninth, traditionally, we’d be saying, ‘What has happened to Geelong?’,” dual flag-winner David King said on Fox Footy.
“They’re out of the eight – at this time of year, it doesn’t happen. But (instead) it gets smothered up nicely inside the 10.”
There are certainly still stakes, with both jostling with three other clubs for an invaluable top-six spot, but they aren’t to the same desperate degree.
It’s unfortunate in a sense, as a Geelong-Collingwood finals race would not only have been captivating due to the powerhouse nature of both clubs, but thrilling as both are quality football outfits.
Last Saturday’s Carlton-Gold Coast fixture had more meaning than it would’ve had in any previous year. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
This year, the AFL landscape is still treated to a race for the last finals spot – and between four clubs as opposed to two – but admittedly a lower-quality fight.
Still, this is what the league wanted; more teams still genuinely in the hunt, and more July and August fixtures mattering in the context of the season.
One of many examples was last Saturday’s Carlton-Gold Coast clash, which, in any other year, would have been a Round 20 match of little finals relevance.
But the Blues are still right in the thick of the wildcard race, pitted against a struggling Suns team that simply had to snap its losing streak to stay in the picture.
Last year, whether Carlton – which sat two and a half games and percentage behind eighth – beat Gold Coast would have made barely a ripple across the competition.
“It is the genuine beauty of wildcard round,” Hall of Fame Legend Jason Dunstall said of the Blues’ clash with the Suns on Fox Footy.
“We are so invested in a lot more games than perhaps we otherwise would have been.
“All of a sudden, we’re talking about the top 10 – we’ve got Carlton sitting in 12th but equal-10th on wins, and Gold Coast a game and percentage outside the top 10.
“Otherwise, we probably wouldn’t be blinking an eyelid at this game. All of a sudden, it creates enormous interest.”