Lucas Herrington is set to become the most expensive Australian footballer of all time in a moment that is hugely significant for the nation in more ways than one.
According to The Athletic, the 18-year-old defender is set to join Premier League side Hull City in a move worth up to $32.4 million AUD that will eclipse the fee Leicester City paid for Harry Souttar in 2023, as the next generation of Socceroos begin to reshape the level of fees an Aussie can command.
As the transfer market has exploded to be worth over $18 billion annually, our players have largely been left behind.
Amid an era where the Socceroos have largely lacked players with the quality to catch the eye of sides in Europe’s top five leagues, it is perhaps unsurprising that the likes of Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka remain on the podium of the nation’s biggest deals two decades on.
Herrington is the first domino to fall, while it is not unreasonable to expect names like Alessandro Circati, Nestory Irankunda, Cristian Volpato and Jordan Bos to attract fees of similar or even greater size in the years to come.
However, perhaps even more significant for the nation’s footballing future is the pipeline this deal establishes for talents being cultivated by A-League clubs.
It was only eight months ago that the teenager played his final match in the domestic competition, featuring for a full 90 minutes as Brisbane Roar were comfortably beaten 3-0 at home by Wellington Phoenix.
Much has been made of the Roar’s decision to cash out their sell-on clause for Herrington. Football360.com.au understands the club would have stood to bank $4.8m from this deal had they not done so, but instead walk away with $1.75m (as well as $1.25m in solidarity payments) in a decision that should be a cautionary tale for all other A-League outfits.
Herrington’s rise has been unusually rapid, but it establishes a pipeline for Australian clubs to properly monetise their assets despite the competition turning into a development league.
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The Australian Professional Leagues have made it clear they believe the future of A-League sides will be underpinned by bringing in sizable transfer fees for their academy talents. However, there remain concerns from other corners of the game over how the declining quality of the nation’s top-flight – due to the league trending younger and younger – could affect the fees they can attract.
According to CIES Football Observatory, eight factors go into a player’s transfer value: Age, contract duration, sporting level, economic level, inflation, performances, career progression and international status.
With that in mind, it is perhaps no surprise that transfer takings across the A-League have dropped off since the initial boom that netted over US$20m across 2023 and 2024.
However, Herrington’s move is the perfect distillation of how Australian sides can realise the value of their young talent by adding a stepping stone to the development path of the competition’s rising stars, with Major League Soccer the perfect stopover.
The USA’s top-flight has established itself as a genuinely competitive league, headlined by global superstars like Lionel Messi, Son Heung Min, Thomas Muller and now Robert Lewandowski.
With that level of quality across the league, MLS sides can command significant fees for their players. Herrington’s fee is big, even by their standards, while the likes of Jhon Duran ($29m to Aston Villa) and Alphonso Davies ($22m to Bayern Munich) provide other examples.
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American clubs are clearly liking what they are seeing down under, with several of the competition’s top talents already making the move stateside.
In the last couple of seasons, New York City have signed Kai Trewin from Melbourne City, Portland Timbers recruited Alex Bonetig from Western Sydney Wanderers, Archie Goodwin joined Charlotte FC from Adelaide United, Real Salt Lake signed Ariath Piol from Macarthur Bulls, and most recently San Jose Earthquakes have signed Luka Jovanovic from Adelaide.
If A-League clubs play their cards right – and learn from Brisbane’s mistake – they can begin to bank far higher figures for the players they develop by selling them for a tidy sum to the MLS and also including (and holding onto) significant sell-on clauses.
However, it will be up to A-League clubs to continue creating an environment where Aussie players are still at the requisite standard to be desired by those clubs, and arrive ready to walk into a starting XI.
Given the current salaries on offer in Australia – where clubs and Professional Footballers Australia remain at loggerheads over a collective bargaining agreement – this pipeline is a good thing for players.
MLS wages are public, unlike in the A-League. At 18 years old, Herrington began on a guaranteed package of US$235,004, while the likes of Goodwin (US$366,187), Trewin ($311,542), Bonetig ($261,000.00) and Piol ($348,859) earn more.
It wasn’t long ago that the A-League and MLS were considered competitions on a similar footing, but those days feel long ago now.
As far as stepping stones go, it is not a bad one for Aussie players.