Carlton has secured an improbable finals berth under Josh Fraser, but it might have “missed a trick” by settling for a draw on Sunday night.
Because unless several unlikely results unfold in Round 24, a daunting wildcard road trip looms for the 10th-placed Blues in two weekends’ time.
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Carlton’s pulsating draw with the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium qualified it for a wildcard final, but as things stand, that’s set to be a meeting with the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
It’d be far less optimal than an MCG showdown with arch-rivals Collingwood, which, if the Blues had beaten the Dogs, would be the likelier outcome.
Instead, their draw means the Blues have to beat Fremantle at Marvel Stadium and hope the Bulldogs lose to Melbourne at the MCG in Round 24 to finish ninth and set up that tantalising prospective Pies bout.
Because the Crows are highly likely to be the unlucky seventh-place finisher, with Hawthorn, Melbourne and Geelong all with favourable final-round fixtures.
But as dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna explained on Fox Footy’s First Crack, the Blues passed on a chance to try and win the game against the Dogs.
“I want to ask whether they missed a trick by getting the two points instead of the four, and instead of most likely going to Adelaide Oval to play the Crows instead of playing in Melbourne,” he began.
“Because this (save-the-game mode) is how they decided to play out the last minute, once word got out to the playing group that a draw was enough.
“They said, ‘Right, we’ll just take it, we are happy to take the wildcard; we won’t worry about what it looks like scenario-wise …’”
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With 14 seconds left, Harry McKay drew a free kick roughly 70 metres away from goal, and could have launched the footy inside 50 for a chance at a winning score.
Instead, he lobbed the ball 20 metres backwards to Blake Acres, who had the Sherrin in his hands as the final siren sounded.
“But I thought this was the moment, when McKay gets a free kick … with 20 seconds to go, and you’re 70 metres out from your own goal, you couldn’t get beaten,” Montagna said.
“Could McKay have gone in deep and try to salvage a point, to give themselves more of a chance in the wildcard of playing Collingwood at the MCG, instead of a place where they’ve never won.
“I think that was maybe the only little knock in what was a pretty special day for the Blues.”
Even with 1:15 left in the game, Harry Dean marked and immediately took a conservative approach.
Blues lock in finals after draw | 06:06
“They’ll try and take on Adelaide (in Adelaide), it’ll be (an) ‘anywhere, anytime’ (mentality),” the Herald Sun’s Jay Clark said.
“I think at that part of the game, they’re just trying to put the result in their pocket, aren’t they?”
But with Fremantle more likely than not to bring a strong squad to Docklands next week, it appears an uphill climb for the Blues to snag ninth spot.
“It’ll be interesting to see whether (the Blues) decide to go chips-in to beat Fremantle and still give themselves the chance of playing at the MCG,” Montagna said.
“Or whether they rest some players as well.
“I don’t think the teams that have got the (wildcard) week off will rest too many players. I don’t think they’ll want to have two weeks off.
“I reckon most of the top six will keep playing their best team.”
Carlton has lost all five Adelaide Oval clashes with the Crows. It hasn’t beaten Adelaide in South Australia since Round 4, 2010.