To win premierships, you need your best players in form at the right time.
Herald Sun football analyst Mick McGuane casts his eye over each finals side’s best performers over the last six weeks, as well as the players who need to lift for their team to taste any success in September.
FREMANTLE
HOT: JOSH TREACY AND JYE AMISS
The bigger question for the minor premier is who isn’t hot at the moment? But the ringleaders for the Dockers have been their two key forwards, who have such a strong understanding of each other’s leading patterns and where the space is.
Treacy has taken 77 marks inside 50 this season and Amiss 75 – that collective return does not happen without an intricate understanding of each other’s nuances and a team-first attitude also helped by their teammate Patrick Voss.
Treacy might be the best contested mark in the game and Amiss can now also be trusted to win one-on-ones after undergoing a significant body transformation over the last two years. He has kicked 19 of his 58 goals in the last five rounds.
HOT: ISAIAH DUDLEY
Dudley has played every game in his second season as a Docker and his last six weeks have been exceptional with nine goals and seven goal assists.
That ranks the AFL’s smallest player at 85th in the competition between rounds 19 and 24 after he sat 245th over the first 18 rounds.
It’s a significant scoreboard return over that period in an attack with successful marking forwards who leave fewer opportunities for the crumbing forwards at ground level.
NOT: BRENNAN COX
He is now likely to miss the Dockers’ first final after a calf injury against Carlton, but Cox needs to restore his aerial impact if he returns to the side further into the September campaign.
His ability to intercept mark has always been a strength, but recently he has been failing to impact in the air with just two contested marks in the last four weeks.
The 28-year-old can look a little slow at times and teams have learnt they can expose him if they make him play back shoulder. Cox and Luke Ryan are both guilty of giving their opponents a little too much leg rope, which is the one vulnerability in Fremantle’s well-oiled back seven, especially against teams that honour teammates who lead at the ball carrier.
SYDNEY SWANS
HOT: ERROL GULDEN
The left-footer’s last four weeks have been off the charts, with his ability to gut run from contest to contest which is a standout feature of his game.
His game time could increase in September as he continues to build after his early-season shoulder injury, yet he managed 47 disposals in just 77 per cent time on ground against Essendon a fortnight ago – imagine what he could have done if coach Dean Cox let him loose.
Gulden will accept responsibility to perform knowing that Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner are both suspended, just like he did last week as he was everywhere with 41 disposals against North Melbourne.
HOT: LOGAN McDONALD
Charlie Curnow deserved all the plaudits this week after claiming his third Coleman Medal, but McDonald should also be recognised for the critical support role he has played this season.
McDonald has booted 16 goals in his last six games to be an important scoring source in the absence of Joel Amartey, who went down in round 17 with an achilles injury.
His return for the season of 32.15 is excellent conversion for a second tall forward, and if he continues to play this way the Swans’ attack will remain potent enough to cause some damage in September.
NOT: MATT ROBERTS
Roberts has been thrown around in different roles this season including wing and half-forward, and was dropped midway through the year.
I would like to see him return to halfback, where he can become their most damaging rebounding defender in the side during the finals series.
His kicking can be a weapon, and he can elevate his standing in the game during September if he takes up the mantle of the Swans’ go-to rebounder and allows them to be a force on turnover.
BRISBANE LIONS
HOT: WILL ASHCROFT
The dual Norm Smith medallist was going OK through the start of the season but was clearly hampered by an elbow injury as his form and the Lions’ dropped away in May.
Ashcroft has surged from No. 100 in Champion Data’s player rankings over the first 18 rounds to 17th from rounds 19-24, with his ability to win the ball a highlight.
He has such firm belief that he can go to another level, and while he has great support in Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale, it feels like he is the one saying “if we want to win a three-peat, follow me”.
HOT: LOGAN MORRIS
The Lions’ leading goalkicker has had his tremendous last five weeks, which yielded 19 goals, validated by his All-Australian selection.
He is catlike with his anticipation and an accurate shot at goal – too mobile for taller opponents and too potent in the air for smaller ones who can’t go with him when he leaps at the ball. His ability to quickly pick up the flight of the footy coming his way is a real strength and a point of difference.
LUKEWARM: DARCY GARDINER
It’s time for the Lions veteran to elevate his game again three weeks into his return from a hamstring injury he suffered in round 17.
Gardiner was part of a miserly defensive effort in the Lions’ recent wins over the Suns and Hawks, but it’s crucial he returns to his form from last year’s finals series to help Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester and Ty Gallop in shoring up any cracks that have appeared in their backline this year.
HAWTHORN
HOT: JARMAN IMPEY
I love the way Impey attacks the game with his run and bounce, and he deserved recognition with his maiden All-Australian jacket as one of the Hawks’ most impactful players this season.
He is tough and uncompromising with his attack on the ball, and he’s become a real barometer for the team.
He makes the Hawks’ defence more robust through his ability to roll over and help a teammate who might be in a vulnerable position as the third-man up in a contest.
HOT: JOSH WARD
Ward has become an underrated midfielder working alongside his higher profile teammates.
He’s composed with the footy, has poise and makes good decisions by hand and foot.
His consistency has been clear, but since round 18 he has lifted his player rating from 63rd to a career-high 34th in the competition, which suggests he will finish high on Hawthorn’s best and fairest leaderboard at the season’s end.
NOT: JOSH WEDDLE
He can provide bounce when he finds the ball, but that’s just not happening for Weddle at the moment.
He needs to get his own game up and going for the benefit of the Hawks.
At times, Weddle’s decision-making has been bewildering. We know he has X-factor qualities, but we’re not seeing that consistently enough at the moment.
I want to see footballer’s actions from him and not just the athletic actions he possesses in the finals series, because the Hawks dasher’s footy IQ is not where it should be at the moment.
GEELONG
HOT: OLLIE HENRY
Geelong needed to find other outlets to goal when Jeremy Cameron went down with a shoulder injury against GWS, and Henry has been one of the forwards to step up.
When Cameron was out, he booted 14 goals in five games. His player ranking surged from 287 over the first 18 rounds to what would be a career-high 61 since round 19. He has been a terrific support to Shannon Neale in a time the Cats needed players to step up.
HOT: OLLIE DEMPSEY
Dempsey has booted half his goals this season (16) in the last eight games. His ability to slide forward and become an aerial threat deep inside 50 has been invaluable to the Cats.
His All-Australian selection on Tuesday night possibly came down to a bit of recency bias, but he is the best sliding winger in the game and in hot form coming into September.
NOT: GRYAN MIERS
I rate Miers highly as the Cats’ conduit with his deft touches to connect them inside 50.
But he is only kicking at 58 per cent efficiency over the last five matches despite continuing to create scoring opportunities.
If he can take more marks inside 50 and hit the scoreboard like we know he can (he only has one goal against his name in his last five games after the three he kicked against St Kilda in round 19, Geelong will have another key weapon firing in its forward half.
Improving his kicking efficiency will help the Cats avoid fuelling the opposition’s turnover game with botched entries inside 50.
ADELAIDE
HOT: IZAK RANKINE
Rankine is running as hot as anyone in the competition.
The 26-year-old Crow has produced extraordinary numbers over his last four games with 9.3, five goal assists and three games with more than 35 disposals.
He has a burning desire to perform in this year’s finals series after the embarrassment of missing the Crows’ last campaign with his suspension, and he could be in career-best form going into their elimination final.
Rankine’s centre-forward impact has been profound, and rivals must check him at forward 50 stoppages or he will cut them to pieces.
Izak Rankine from the boundary line
HOT: TAYLOR WALKER
Opposition defenders can ill afford to underestimate the Adelaide veteran the way other sides appear to have in the last few weeks.
Walker has 18 goals in his last five games and is the 45th rated player in the competition since round 19.
The speed of the game goes up in finals, but you still rely on your footy IQ and forward craft, and in recent weeks Walker has been given space by Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty to exploit direct opponents who either are not as tall, strong or as smart as him.
NOT: JOSH RACHELE
Rachele is one of three Crows who have played every game this season, but he’s only spent five per cent of his game time on the ball in the last six matches.
He plays a difficult, opportunistic role, but he has been a bit clunky with his ball-handling and his decision-making has abandoned him on a few occasions when those features should be strengths in his game.
He can cause defenders headaches by lifting his forward 50 ground balls (average 1.2 over the last six games) and being cleaner with the footy during the finals.
MELBOURNE
HOT: HARRISON PETTY
What a revelation Petty has been after a false dawn as a key forward two years ago.
With Jacob van Rooyen suspended, the Demons needed someone to step up in the front half, and he has done that without question.
His eight contested marks (and he was cruelly denied a ninth by a play-on call) against the Western Bulldogs put him in illustrious company alongside Max Gawn, two times, and David Neitz as club record-holders for the most contested marks in a game.
Only Jack Gunston (22) and Mitch Georgiades (20) have taken more forward 50 marks then Petty’s 19 since round 20. He’s hot as mustard at the moment.
Harrison Petty rubs his own head after kicking a goal
HOT: TOM SPARROW
Like Josh Ward, Sparrow has elevated his game by making the most of increased opportunities in the midfield.
He has been rated the 20th-best player in the competition since round 19 as a relentless two-way midfielder who tackles with great intensity and kicks goals at key moments.
Sparrow’s new contract at Melbourne was great reward for a player who has worked hard on his game and become a barometer for the side through the midfield.
NOT: HARVEY LANGFORD
The second-year wingman has played every game this season in a difficult role but his impact has tailed off late in the year.
Langford booted 18 goals in his first 15 games but only has four from his last eight – can he get back to his goalkicking best this week against Carlton and test their defensive system.
I hope we get to see a young player made for September. Langford has the competitiveness, the athletic attributes and finishing skills to have a significant impact in Melbourne’s finals tilt.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
HOT: ED RICHARDS
Since round 11, only Nick Daicos is rated higher than Richards by Champion Data.
His last fortnight has brought the highest-rated two-week stretch by a Bulldog on record, with an average 30 disposals, 1.5 goals, seven clearances and seven inside 50s.
When Richards touches the ball, more often than not something positive happens for the Bulldogs on the scoreboard.
HOT: JAMES O’DONNELL
The former cricketer is undersized but holding down a crucial post down back with Rory Lobb required elsewhere.
O’Donnell is hard to play on, backs himself in the air, and is happy to make the percentage play when needed: he’ll spoil aggressively instead of trying to invent a marking situation that might not go his way.
I love when defenders get that decision right, and while Luke Beveridge is owed a lot of credit, O’Donnell’s judgement in the air is a big part of why the Bulldogs’ defensive profile has gone through the roof over the last six weeks.
LUKEWARM: RYLEY SANDERS
Sanders’ player rating has slipped from 80th to 235th over the last six weeks, but that’s a by-product of a different role as he has been moved from the inside to outside.
He is still an important link player between the Bulldogs’ defence and offence on a wing, and after some key contributions in the win over Melbourne he has some momentum going into Friday night’s clash against Collingwood. Sanders has lots of upside and there will be no better stage to show it.
COLLINGWOOD
HOT: THE DAICOS BROTHERS
Nick and Josh Daicos are accumulating the footy in spades and their teammates don’t hesitate to give them the ball.
The accolades Nick began reeling in on Tuesday night speak for themselves, but Josh has been critical too as the Magpies’ most prolific running defender with an average 31 disposals and six rebound 50s over the last four games. He had three goal assists and made very good decisions with his 30 touches in the draw against Hawthorn in round 23.
HOT: ED ALLAN
Allan will have another significant role on Friday night – does he tag the Bont or go to Ed Richards?
He’s well and truly earnt a new deal at Collingwood after making a terrific adjustment from a north-south winger to an accountable midfielder inside the contest.
The 22-year-old has relished the chance to play against the opposition’s best on-baller, and while his main job has been to defend, he runs off well to receive the ball and force his opponent to defend him.
NOT: LIAM PUNCHER
The young key defender was taken to the cleaners last week by a very potent Brisbane forward line.
Lions coach Chris Fagan clearly wanted to stretch the Magpies’ defence, and Puncher was the one who was left exposed just eight games into a promising debut season.
Will his confidence take a hit ahead of an important wildcard clash? Billy Frampton, Jeremy Howe and Dan Houston must offer up the right support, because opposition sides will keep trying to find ways to isolate him after the Lions offered a blueprint.
CARLTON
HOT: FRANCIS EVANS
At his third club, Champion Data has the journeyman on the edge of the top 50 players of the competition over the last six rounds.
His five-goal haul against Fremantle was overdue reward for his excellent centre-forward impact under Josh Fraser, which included 12 inside 50s in a best-on-ground performance against St Kilda earlier this month.
Evans makes very good decisions going inside 50 and is doing a lot right in a very difficult position to consistently impact.
HOT: OLLIE FLORENT
After a middling first couple of months as a Blue, Florent has taken his game to new heights under Fraser, particularly in the last six weeks – the highest-rated stretch of his 10-year career.
He is averaging 26.2 disposals per game over that period and taking the game forward with great depth and penetration in his kicking.
The 28-year-old recruit has become the attacking halfback the Blues were crying out for with where Adam Saad and Zac Williams are at in the twilight of their careers.
LUKEWARM: BEN AINSWORTH
Another valuable recruit, Ainsworth’s midfield minutes have dried up recently and despite a three-goal haul last week, he has just been going in a tough role similar to Francis Evans’.
He’s an inside 50 barometer who uses his body well to win the ball on the ground, and is a one-touch player and one-step kicker who doesn’t need many disposals to turn a game.
Ainsworth can make a side that is already going well even better if he can recover his best form in the finals series.