Choosing which wide receiver to select at the top of your fantasy football draft is a lot like deciding who to take along to a Coldplay concert. Many options seem safe, but the wrong choice can destroy everything.

Over the last 10 years, every single top-three fantasy wideout had an average draft position (ADP) of WR34 or higher, according to FantasyPros. In that span, all but seven of those receivers were among the top 12 drafted at their position. That said, even the players atop the rankings aren’t safe from busting your draft. Here are some of last year’s biggest (non-injury) misses:

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Tyreek Hill: WR1 in ADP, finished WR21.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: WR9 in ADP, finished WR29.

Deebo Samuel Sr.: WR13 in ADP, finished WR44.

DK Metcalf: WR18 in ADP, finished WR32.

Jaylen Waddle: WR19 in ADP, finished WR46.

Michael Pittman Jr.: WR20 in ADP, finished WR43.

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This exercise aims to produce a shortlist of candidates who can finish as top-three receivers based on historical trends. To put it another way, it’s a cherry-picking expedition where the goal is to whittle down the elite wideouts to a list of targets. As we did with the running back position, we’ll be looking at what the top-three wideouts did the season before their podium finish.

An important note before we dive in — this is a shortlist of candidates based on trends. These are NOT predictions.

Who will be the top three fantasy football wide receivers in 2025?

All scoring references are half-PPR. ADP data is via FantasyPros.

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32 — No player older than 31 has finished as a top-three wide receiver over the last 10 years. Larry Fitzgerald in 2017 was the only wideout older than 31 to finish inside the top-five during that span.

0 — Zero first or second-year players have finished inside the top-three at receiver over the last 10 years. The last rookie wideout to accomplish the feat was Randy Moss in 1998, and the last sophomore receiver to do it was Josh Gordon in 2013.

1.3 — 25 of the 30 players in the sample averaged at least 1.3 yards per snap. Eight wide receivers were excluded only by this benchmark: Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Zay Flowers. Four of them (Jeudy, JSN, Sutton, Ridley) would have been excluded had we used Yards Per Route Run (YPPR) instead. Alternatively, using a receptions per route qualifier would have eliminated four (Ridley, Pickens, Sutton, Jeudy).

0.13 — All but one of the last 30 top-three wideouts earned more than 0.13 targets per snap in the prior season. The notable name who didn’t hit this benchmark was A.J. Brown, who is a fine pick but likely won’t generate the volume needed to record his first career top-three finish.

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(Note: 2015 season was used for Keenan Allen (27 snaps in 2016), and 2014 season was used for Jordy Nelson (0 snaps in 2015).

So who are the fantasy football top-three WR candidates?

Here are the six players who checked all the boxes (ranked in order of positional ADP):

Ja’Marr Chase (1.0 ADP) – Last year’s WR1 averaged 28.2% more fantasy points per game than the next-closest receiver. That was a far bigger gap than any other position’s first and second-place finisher. In four seasons, he’s gone: WR5, WR12, WR13, WR1.

Justin Jefferson (2.3 ADP) – The LSU product has been a model of consistency since he entered the league. Here are his point-per-game ranks for his five seasons: WR8, WR4, WR1, WR5, WR2. Hot diggity damn.

CeeDee Lamb (2.7 ADP) – Lamb had an off year in 2024 and still finished as the WR8. It would help if the “Dak Prescott is only good in odd-numbered years” trend continues.

Puka Nacua (6.0 ADP) – Puka is the De’Von Achane of wide receivers. His upside case is obvious, but Matthew Stafford’s health makes him an injury risk on two fronts.

Nico Collins (6.0 ADP) – Nico was fantasy’s WR2 before a hamstring injury all but derailed his season. He still finished as the WR6 in points per game. Among all NFL wideouts with at least 40 receptions, no one averaged more fantasy points per snap than Collins. He has overall WR1 upside if he stays healthy.

Tee Higgins (13.3 ADP) – Higgins might be the most underrated elite fantasy receiver. From Week 5 last season, the only player to average more points per game than Higgins was his teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The 26-year-old comes with plenty of risk, but that’s already baked into his ADP (32.0 overall).

(Note: Rashee Rice qualified as well, but he is expected to miss a handful of games at minimum.)

A word on the sophomores

While no sophomore wideout has had a medal finish since Josh Gordon in 2023, last year’s rookie class certainly has the potential to buck that trend.

Malik Nabers (5.3 ADP) – Of the 30 top-three finishers over the last 10 years, only 2 averaged fewer than 7.5 yards per target. If you expand the sample to top-five finishers, only 3 of 47 (three were rookies) failed to meet that threshold. Malik Nabers missed the cutoff there by almost half a yard. Sure, the quarterback situation in New York was a mess last year, but is the current version of Russell Wilson that much of an upgrade?

Brian Thomas Jr. (8.0 ADP) – BTJ averaged more fantasy points per reception than anyone on the list above. He was a league winner in 2024 and could be a league winner again this season.

Ladd McConkey (11.3 ADP) – McConkey finally cracked 40 offensive snaps in Week 4 and didn’t look back. Over his final 14 games (including the playoffs), he posted a full-season pace of 98 receptions, 1,502 yards, and 9 touchdowns. That line would have made him the WR4 last year.

Additional notes on fantasy football WR trends

In the 10-year sample, 24 of the 30 wide receivers hit all of the thresholds. For those doing math at home, that’s an 80% hit rate. None of them failed to hit multiple benchmarks.

The last time a wideout finished inside the top three while missing one of the benchmarks in his prior season was Cooper Kupp in 2021.

Since 2015, 57% of the top-three receivers have been in either their third, fourth, or fifth year in the league. Three players fit the bill from the list above: Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and Nico Collins.

Amon-Ra St. Brown only missed one of the thresholds (yards per snap), and it wasn’t by much. He might not have the upside to be the overall WR1, especially with Ben Johnson gone, but his track record makes him among the safer picks at the position.

Top fantasy football wide receiver sleepers

These four wide receivers hit all the benchmarks but are currently outside the top 34 in positional ADP:

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Jauan Jennings (44.3 ADP)

Marvin Mims Jr. (58.0 ADP)

How to use this list

The best way to use this shortlist is as a tiebreaker within tiers. Here are a couple of examples:

My Tier 2 consists of Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown. My projections have them neck and neck. These trends broke the tie for me.

I have Tee Higgins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyreek Hill clustered in a tier. This data makes my decision easier.

You can also use this article as a reminder that efficiency and the ability to earn targets are key indicators for future wide receiver success.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Top 3 fantasy football WRs in 2025? 6 targets based on trends