MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (8/30)

In between Sunday’s end-of-summer festivities with your family, make sure to get your MLB DFS lineups set.

DraftKings’ main slate includes nine games beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET. The FanDuel main slate includes a 10th game between the Astros and Mets.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/30)

If you can find the money, Logan Gilbert feels like the best pitching option on this slate. First off, Toronto’s offense just can’t seem to get right this season. They rank second-worst in wOBA this season, and dead last in xwOBA. Then, there is the consistency you can expect from Gilbert. He has gone over 30 points on FanDuel in 11 of his last 14 starts.
Dustin May just started on Wednesday but lasted only a single pitch in that outing. He was struck on the back by a line drive, but has recovered enough that he feels good enough to start today without restriction against a Rangers offense that is in the bottom five in xwOBA.
When you go cheap at starting pitcher, always go for the cheapest option with the most upside. Zebby Matthews has won each of his four August starts, with his most recent start being his most impressive yet. He struck out seven Athletics over seven innings with only a single run allowed. Matthews is much more affordable on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (8/30)

In between Sunday’s end-of-summer festivities with your family, make sure to get your MLB DFS lineups set.

DraftKings’ main slate includes nine games beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET. The FanDuel main slate includes a 10th game between the Astros and Mets.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/30)

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (8/30)

POS
PLAYER
DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

OF
Jackson Chourio
$6,100
$3,300

2B
Brice Turang
$5,900
$3,500

C
William Contreras
$4,600
$3,000

1B/OF
Jake Bauers
$4,300
$3,300

OF
Christian Yelich
$4,900
$3,000

OF
Garrett Mitchell
$4,200
$2,900

3B/SS/2B
Joey Ortiz
$3,500
$2,700

OF
Sal Frelick
$3,100
$2,700

2B/3B/SS
David Hamilton
$3,400
$2,600

The Milwaukee Brewers face the mercurial Kumar Rocker today. It can be very hard to predict what you’re going to get from him from game to game. He typically puts too many people on base, as demonstrated by his 1.40 WHIP. While the Brewers are last in home runs, they are third in runs scored because of their league-leading on-base percentage (OBP). Milwaukee should take advantage of that in this matchup.
You’re going to have to be a bit frugal somewhere to get Jackson Chourio in your lineup. He’s the seventh-most expensive hitter on this slate. That price has risen substantially recently with a .917 OPS in August.
One of the more underappreciated breakouts this season has been Jake Bauers. It’s entirely likely that this will be the best season of his career. He has already set career highs in runs, home runs, RBI and stolen bases. Bauers also has a top-10 OPS (.892).
After being one of the worst performers in the first half of the season, Joey Ortiz has been one of the best performers in the second half of the season. In the first half, he had three home runs with an OPS of .596. He has four home runs already in the second half with a .937 OPS. That’s seventh in baseball in the second half among batters with at least 90 plate appearances.

Pittsburgh Pirates Projected Lineup (8/30)

POS
PLAYER
DraftKings Salary
FanDuel Salary

1B
Spencer Horwitz
$4,100
$2,800

2B
Brandon Lowe
$5,700
$3,300

OF
Bryan Reynolds
$5,200
$3,100

OF
Esmerlyn Valdez
$4,700
$3,000

OF/SS
Oneil Cruz
$6,600
$3,900

2B/3B/SS
Nick Gonzales
$3,600
$2,800

OF
Jake Mangum
$3,700
$2,600

1B/C
Rafael Flores Jr.
$3,900
$2,800

SS
Jacob Gonzalez
$2,800
$2,500

The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing Matthew Liberatore today. After a decent start to the season, Liberatore has regressed. Since the start of June, he has a 6.45 ERA. While that’s been a bit unlucky, his 4.58 FIP in that same time is nothing to be excited about. Liberatore faced the Pirates in May this season. In that game, he gave up seven hits and four earned runs in 4.2 innings.
Oneil Cruz has hit the ground running since coming back from the injured list (IL). It’s only been 10 games since he returned from injury, but he already has three home runs in that span. That brings Cruz’s season total to 17 in only 73 games.
If you’re going to play Esmerlyn Valdez in DFS, make sure you do it against a left-handed pitcher like Liberatore. Valdez has a 1.056 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but a .777 mark against right-handed pitching. He has more extra-base hits against left-handed pitchers in 80 at-bats than he has against right-handed pitchers in 133 at-bats.
It feels like the Pirates have been searching for a catcher for a while, but they may have found one in Rafael Flores. He has five home runs in the second half of the season in only 63 at-bats. He doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify, but his 16.7% barrel rate would be among the best in baseball.

Core Studs

I’m well aware that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t hit a home run at home this season. Plus, his matchup is against Logan Gilbert — my top recommended starting pitcher for today. Yet, it’s hard to ignore Guerrero’s success against Gilbert — 7-for-23 against Gilbert with five extra-base hits, including three home runs.
Another batter with substantial success against his opposing starting pitcher today is Yandy Diaz. Diaz has faced Robbie Ray 24 times before in his career. He has eight hits, with six of them going for extra bases, including a pair of home runs.
It’s becoming apparent that Jac Caglianone is a streaky hitter. He has a 1.148 OPS this month.

Value Plays/Punts

You have to check the Dodgers’ lineup to make sure Enrique Hernandez is playing. Given his history against Framber Valdez, it seems likely he will be. Hernandez is 6-for-22 against Valdez in his career with a pair of home runs.
Paul Goldschmidt continues to be an option you can always play against lefties, like Ranger Suarez. Goldschmidt has a 1.008 OPS this season against left-handed pitchers. That’s fourth among qualified batters.
Today is Walker Jenkins‘ first game against a left-handed pitcher. We’ll have to make sure that the Twins aren’t platooning him. Considering he batted .303 with an .842 OPS against left-handed pitching in the minor leagues this season, they should be starting him in every game.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, DH – NYY): 0.5 Hits — Higher

There are different ways you can approach this game from Paul Goldschmidt depending on the risk you want to take. His total bases prop is also in play, but the safest play is to take the over on his hits.

Michael Harris II (OF – ATL): 1.5 Total Bases — Higher

Michael Harris has gone over 1.5 total bases in seven of his previous 11 games, including the first two games of this series against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are expected to start Mason Adams in this game.

Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD): 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher

It’s a bit surprising to see Tyler Glasnow‘s strikeout prop line below 7.5. He came back from the IL earlier this week and struck out seven in his first game back.

If you take away the start in May where he left with an injury after an inning, he has struck out at least seven batters in his previous six starts.

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