Israeli-based national security expert and former intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz, on the other hand, has cautioned against taking recent US successes against Iran too much to heart.
“Imagine that, at the outset of the US-Israeli campaign, someone had predicted that six months later Iran’s nuclear problem would remain unresolved, its missile threat would persist, the regime would still be standing, and Washington would be celebrating the restoration of roughly 30 percent of the pre-war maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that was open before the war began,” he wrote on X.
“Would we really describe that outcome as the United States regaining strategic control of the conflict?“
He said Iran had suffered tremendous losses during the war, while recent US operational success such as clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines should be noted.
But none of Washington’s strategic goals had been achieved.
“The Pentagon is acutely aware that another major round of fighting with Iran would consume capabilities and attention needed in other theatres, particularly the Indo-Pacific. That constraint matters,” Citrinowicz said.
“And after the costs of this war, it is difficult to imagine that future administrations will view another large-scale confrontation with Iran as an attractive option.”