Now that the NFL preseason is in the rear-view mirror, I will look at some award updates from the various sportsbooks in this space until the regular season kicks off a week from Wednesday in Seattle. Today, let’s break down NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, with odds and trends courtesy of BetMGM. And I’ll tell you right now the player taking the heaviest action is a surprise – at least to me. I’m also hoping he’s there when I pick in my Fantasy Dynasty draft on Thursday.
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But first let’s look at the favorites, and they are Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love at +500 and Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza at +550. No real surprise there, as they were the first two offensive players off the board back in April, with Mendoza going No. 1 overall and Love third.
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Love opened as the +300 favorite because he was expected to be the featured back in Arizona from the get-go, but his odds have risen no doubt because of a high-ankle sprain suffered in the preseason opener against Mendoza’s Raiders. Now it’s a race to be ready for the Sept. 13 opener at the Chargers. Probably 50/50 right now. Love did look good in his limited action, rushing 11 times for 58 yards and catching three passes for 14 yards.
Mendoza, meanwhile, had some issues in his three preseason games – he was tied at +500 with Love entering the finale — and will be the backup to open the season behind veteran Kirk Cousins. The offensive line is a major question mark, so the Raiders might just want to keep Mendoza healthy until that group jells. So neither of the two favorites may be on the field Week 1.
BetMGM is not exposed on either player winning the award because neither is in the top three of handle or tickets. No. 1 on both — and where the book is definitely exposed — is on 49ers receiver De’Zhaun Stribling, who was the first pick (No. 33 overall) in Round 2 this year. That was the Niners’ initial pick in the draft after trading down first from No. 27 to 30 and then from No. 30 to 33 for additional picks.
San Francisco needed a game-breaking wideout, and last season at Ole Miss, Stribling was a big-play guy with 55 catches for 811 yards and six touchdowns. Then he ran a blazing 4.36 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Last year’s Niners didn’t have a single offensive player break the 20 mph-mark with the ball in his hands, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Their wide receivers averaged only 127.7 yards per game, which ranked 21st in the league.
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Stribling looked a bit buried on the depth chart initially behind incumbent Ricky Pearsall, a 2025 first-round pick, and free-agent additions Mike Evans and Christian Kirk. But Pearsall already has been lost to a season-ending injury, so that moved Stribling up immediately – although the team did bring back veteran Deebo Samuel after that injury — and he has shined in camp and the preseason.
“He gets the job done. Strib gets the job done,” Evans said recently. “He’s a rookie, but he’s a pro. He’s been a pro — the way he practices, the way he prepares. He’s going to make a lot of plays for us this year.”
BetMGM bettors sure think so, as Stribling ranks No. 1 at the book in handle (13.5%) and tickets (9.4 %) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. That has moved him from an open of +8000 to win the award to now a +750 fifth-favorite behind the two guys listed above, Titans wideout Carnell Tate (+600) and Seahawks running back Jadarian Price (+600) — I rather like Price.
Believe it or not with all the talent they have had over the year, the Niners have never had a winner – a handful of Defensive Rookies of the Year, though. Yet the book isn’t the most exposed on Stribling, who has a season Over/Under totals of 649.5 receiving yards.
That would be long-shot Cyrus Allen, a Chiefs fifth-round receiver out of Cincinnati. Allen got plenty of targets in the preseason and has a chance to become the team’s No. 3 wideout to open the year with Xavier Worthy banged up and Rashee Rice an injury risk himself. Allen opened at +20000 for OROY but is down to +6600 with 5.2% of tickets and 4.5% of handle.
Another wideout in the Saints‘ Jordyn Tyson, the No. 8 overall pick in the draft, has risen from an open of +700 to +8000 because the former Arizona State star may not debut in the regular season until October off a hamstring injury suffered in practice.