As the calendar turns to September, four weeks remain in Major League Baseball’s regular season. That’s eight series apiece before October.
In this second installment of our stretch-run “Schedule Watch” series, we’re covering the next two weeks of games for each contending team. If you were hoping for some mighty head-to-head matchups with playoff implications, you’re in luck. We have Chicago Cubs-Milwaukee Brewers — twice! We have Atlanta Braves-Philadelphia Phillies — twice! We have … Cleveland Guardians-Toronto Blue Jays?
The American League is weird, man.
Below, we have listed each contender’s upcoming schedule, its playoff odds and strength-of-schedule figures — the latter two provided by FanGraphs. We also picked a key upcoming series for each team. Any team with at least 10 percent playoff odds is considered a contender for this exercise. The AL has a whopping 10 teams with at least a 20 percent shot at a postseason berth. And four of them are under .500!
Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages and odds are updated through Sunday afternoon.
AMERICAN LEAGUETampa Bay Rays
Record: 82-54
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .519
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Home
.445
Sept. 3-6
4
Road
.489
Sept. 8-10
3
Road
.599
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.504
Key series: Sept. 8-10 at Braves
This is the calm before the storm, because after these two weeks, the Rays have a series against the Athletics before finishing with a 10-game gauntlet against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Phillies. That’s a tough way to end the regular season. If the Rays are going to stay atop the AL East, they will have to earn it.
Plus, these next two weeks are no cakewalk. The New York Mets have not been a pushover lately, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are fighting for a playoff spot, and no team has been better at home this season than the Braves. At this point, the Rays aren’t worried about missing the playoffs, but they’d certainly like to hold onto that top seed in the AL.
New York Yankees
Record: 78-59
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .487
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Road
.380
Sept. 4-6
3
Road
.526
Sept. 8-10
3
Home
.380
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.445
Key series: Sept. 4-6 at San Diego Padres
In the next two weeks, the Yankees play three of the absolute worst teams in baseball — the Mets have the fifth-worst record in the majors, while the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels are tied for the worst. Granted, the Mets have been better lately, but unless there’s concern about a spoiler Subway Series, the Yankees’ next two weeks don’t look particularly challenging beyond the West Coast travel.
The series against the Padres stands out, as San Diego is locked in a fierce battle with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the last National League wild-card spot. The bigger Yankees series on the horizon is a late-September matchup with the Rays.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 74-63
Playoff odds: 97.5 percent
Strength of schedule: .504
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Home
.467
Sept. 3-6
4
Road
.496
Sept. 7-9
3
Home
.380
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.449
Key series: Sept. 3-6 at Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox are home a lot these next two weeks. They’ll play nine of their next 13 at Fenway Park, with a four-game jaunt to Baltimore as their only upcoming road trip. That series is hard to overlook, especially with the Orioles hoping to play their way back into the playoff mix. The Red Sox have won five of these teams’ first nine meetings this season. Still, they should have some concern about how they’ve played at home. They’ve been considerably better on the road this year, something they’d surely like to change in these next two weeks.
Chicago White Sox
Record: 72-64
Playoff odds: 86.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .486
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3
4
Road
.504
Sept. 4-6
3
Home
.474
Sept. 8-10
3
Home
.486
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.493
Key series: Sept. 4-6 vs. Minnesota Twins
There is still a scenario in which the White Sox end up battling their next opponent, the Astros, for a wild-card spot, but for now, the South Side focus has to be on winning the AL Central. So, first things first: Take care of the Twins, who are fading fast and recently fell below the 10 percent playoff odds threshold required to be considered contenders for this story. Winning the division could come with a first-round bye, and that has to be the White Sox’s priority, making the Twins series the key one until the White Sox run into the Guardians and Detroit Tigers later in the month.
Houston Astros
Record: 69-68
Playoff odds: 67.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .496
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3
4
Home
.529
Sept. 4-6
3
Home
.529
Sept. 8-10
3
Road
.562
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.603
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 3 vs. White Sox
Clinging to a just-over-.500 record and a two-game division lead, the Astros have no games left against the Rangers and only two remaining against the Seattle Mariners. So, the AL West probably won’t be decided by head-to-head matchups. Instead, the Astros have to win the division by beating teams that aren’t in the AL West race. None of those series will be more important than the upcoming four-game set against the White Sox. The Astros and White Sox could each make the playoffs as division winners, vying for a first-round bye, or they could be in the wild-card mix. Either way, the Astros should have that series circled. They took two of three from the White Sox in July.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 69-68
Playoff odds: 50.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .484
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 1-3
3
Home
.493
Sept. 4-6
4
Home
.463
Sept. 7-9
3
Road
.496
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.474
Key series: Sept. 1-3 vs. Blue Jays
The Guardians are hot and still in contention for the AL Central crown, and they’re about to play two in-division teams. But those series don’t stand out as they should. The Tigers were supposed to be the team to beat, and the Twins were in the hunt before going cold. Instead, the Guardians have to focus on the teams they’re trying to fend off in the wild-card race. That means a particular focus on upcoming series with the Blue Jays and Orioles. Either one could sneak into the mix, even as the fourth-best team in the AL East.
Texas Rangers
Record: 67-70
Playoff odds: 25 percent
Strength of schedule: .506
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3
4
Home
.387
Sept. 4-6
3
Home
.603
Sept. 8-10
3
Road
.467
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.529
Key series: Sept. 8-10 at Mariners
This is a crucial set for both sides as they attempt to make a run at a playoff spot. A three-game series in Seattle could be huge in determining who wins the AL West (or at least in determining whether the division is a two- or three-team race down the stretch). The Rangers don’t have a particularly easy path ahead — they have no games left against the Angels, and they still have to play the contending Rays, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Twins — but as far as individual series go, this Mariners matchup could be the biggest. The Rangers are 7-3 against the Mariners this season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 68-70
Playoff odds: 24.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .482
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 1-3
3
Road
.504
Sept. 4-6
3
Road
.449
Sept. 7-9
3
Road
.387
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.496
Key series: Sept. 1-3 at Guardians
The Blue Jays have an interesting September schedule for a team trying to win a wild-card spot, with series against the Guardians and Rangers and two against the Orioles. Half of their remaining games are against teams they could be trying to fend off for the final AL playoff spot. (Their other four series are against pretty bad teams.) We could justify choosing the upcoming Orioles set as the Blue Jays’ key series of the next two weeks, but for now, the Guardians are the team to beat in the wild-card race, so Toronto might as well start there.
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 68-69
Playoff odds: 21.5 percent
Strength of schedule: .508
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Road
.380
Sept. 3-6
4
Home
.540
Sept. 7-9
3
Home
.504
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.493
Key series: Sept. 11-13 at Blue Jays
The Orioles would undoubtedly like to overtake the Red Sox for third place in the AL East. But first, the Orioles need to get control of a wild-card spot. Back-to-back series against the Guardians and Blue Jays are an opportunity to make headway there. The Orioles have two series remaining against the Blue Jays, and there remains a chance that four AL East teams will play in October. The Orioles would love to be the No. 3 team in the division, but they first have to make sure they’re at least No. 4.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 64-73
Playoff odds: 20 percent
Strength of schedule: .457
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Road
.540
Sept. 3-6
4
Home
.387
Sept. 8-10
3
Home
.489
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.387
Key series: Sept. 8-10 vs. Rangers
Though they have been taking on water, the Mariners have this in their favor: Seventeen of their remaining 25 games are against the Athletics, Angels and Rockies. That leaves just eight games against teams that aren’t among MLB’s worst. So, yes, we’re telling you there’s a chance. In the AL West, the Mariners have two late-September games against the Astros and this upcoming three-game set at home against the Rangers. The Mariners need to do well in each of those series, but for now, the Rangers series looms largest. The Rangers have had the Mariners’ number so far this season, winning seven of 10 matchups.
Brice Turang and Luis Lara celebrate after defeating the Texas Rangers on Saturday. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
NATIONAL LEAGUEMilwaukee Brewers
Record: 85-52
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .509
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3
4
Road
.566
Sept. 4-6
3
Road
.471
Sept. 7-9
3
Home
.566
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.471
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 3, Sept. 7-9 vs. Cubs
The team with the best record in baseball shows no signs of slowing. The Brewers enter this strange early September stretch — two weeks, two opponents — having won 11 of 13 series since the All-Star break. They have a healthy lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. Now, those two teams will tangle seven times in 10 days. The Brewers swept the Cubs at Wrigley Field in May and nearly won a home series against them in June, losing the rubber match when a bases-loaded 5-4-3 double play thwarted their 10th-inning rally. Other than the Cubs, the only projected playoff team the Brewers will face in September is Philadelphia (Sept. 22-24).
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 82-55
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .467
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Sept. 1-3
3
Home
.493
Sept. 4-6
3
Home
.468
Sept. 7-9
3
Home
.471
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.504
Key series: Sept. 11-13 at Marlins
This September schedule shouldn’t spook the Dodgers. They play just two teams currently above .500 — the Marlins and Padres — and have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the majors, trailing only Seattle.
The Marlins did have the Dodgers’ number when they met in April, though, winning two one-run games and carrying a two-run lead into the ninth inning of their lone loss. The Marlins’ playoff odds (3.7 percent) may not land them a spot in our Schedule Watch series, but they are a dangerous ballclub. Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara have been two of the best starters in the sport in the season’s second half, and while the lineup lacks much power, it generates constant traffic and chaos on the basepaths with a blend of on-base skill and speed.
Atlanta Braves
Record: 82-55
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .513
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31
1
Home
.409
Sept. 1-2
2
Road
.468
Sept. 4-7
4
Road
.562
Sept. 8-10
3
Home
.603
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.562
Key series: Sept. 4-7, 11-13 vs. Phillies
MLB’s schedule-makers have a sense of humor. The Braves and Phillies haven’t faced each other since April, when they — get this — played two series in a week and a half. That same setup returns in September as the Phillies are attempting to chase down the Braves for the NL East lead. Atlanta is on a seven-game winning streak and leads the division by five games over Philadelphia and would like a re-run of their April meetings: in those six games, the Braves won five and the Phillies one (in extras).
Chicago Cubs
Record: 77-60
Playoff odds: 98.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .514
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3
4
Home
.620
Sept. 4-6
3
Road
.504
Sept. 7-9
3
Road
.620
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.486
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 3, Sept. 7-9 vs. Brewers
The Cubs would have to overcome extreme odds (3.1 percent) to overtake the Brewers for the NL Central crown. But if it’s going to happen, it’ll start here with seven head-to-head matchups in the next 10 days.
The Cubs have lost four of six to the Brewers this season. They’ve been beaten twice by Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, who is slated to face them in both of the upcoming series.
The rest of the schedule doesn’t get a whole lot easier for the Cubs: Marlins (twice), Braves, Red Sox. The only sub-.500 opponents remaining on the Cubs’ schedule are the Pirates and Reds.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 77-60
Playoff odds: 98.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .520
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Road
.529
Sept. 4-7
4
Home
.599
Sept. 8-10
3
Home
.504
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.599
Key series: Sept. 4-7, 11-13 vs. Braves
The Phillies, as mentioned above, haven’t faced the division-leading Braves since losing five of six to them in April. A lot has happened since then. The Phillies are 20-7 in August. Jesús Luzardo, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler form a formidable top three in the rotation. Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in homers. Bryce Harper looks … elite.
Yet the Phillies are still five games back of Atlanta in the NL East. No better time to make a dent in that deficit than the next two weeks. After that, the Phillies end the regular season with series against two lesser opponents (Nationals and Mets) and two first-place ones (Brewers and Rays).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 73-65
Playoff odds: 48.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .498
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Home
.562
Sept. 4-6
3
Road
.504
Sept. 7-9
3
Road
.449
Sept. 11-13
3
Home
.489
Key series: Aug. 31-Sept. 2 vs. Phillies
Even in this brave new balanced-schedule world, it’s strange to see three consecutive interleague series in September, plus another the following week. But we’ll leave that alone for now.
The Diamondbacks’ clearest path to the postseason is to ward off the Padres. Yet, as the Phillies stare down two upcoming series against the division-leading Braves, the Snakes gaining enough ground to steal a playoff spot from the Phillies isn’t out of the question, even though Fangraphs’ playoff odds machine considers that a rather unlikely scenario. The aforementioned Snakes are still very much alive here, especially with Ketel Marte back in the building.
San Diego Padres
Record: 72-65
Playoff odds: 47.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .484
OpponentDatesGamesLocationWin%
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
3
Road
.471
Sept. 4-6
3
Home
.569
Sept. 7-9
3
Home
.468
Sept. 11-13
3
Road
.409
Key series: Sept. 4-6 vs. Yankees
Given that in these two weeks the Padres don’t face any of the other teams vying for NL wild-card spots, the only thing that really matters is beating whichever team is in the other dugout that day. But the Yankees series is worth zooming in on.
The Yanks are a motivated team these days as they try to chase down the division-leading Rays and secure a first-round bye. As it stands, it appears the Padres will miss both of the Yankees’ top two right-handed starters, Cam Schlittler and Gerrit Cole, but face both of their lefties, Carlos Rodón and Max Fried. Aaron Judge isn’t likely to be back for the Padres series, either. All in all, consider this good timing for San Diego.