How the rest of a thrilling final round of the 2025 season could play out

Fremantle’s Luke Jackson, Brisbane’s Charlie Cameron, Western Bulldog Sam Darcy and Collingwood’s Nick Daicos. Picture: AFL Photos

COLLINGWOOD is all but guaranteed a top-four finish after its thrilling win and Gold Coast’s loss on Friday night.

The Magpies overcame Melbourne in a thriller at the MCG and then saw Port Adelaide do them a favour by upsetting the Suns.

FINALS PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?

Collingwood is all but certain to finish in the top four, while the Suns’ bid for a first ever finals appearance will go down to the final day of the home and away season.

Here is your one-stop shop for all the permutations for your side still in the finals hunt.

Friday, August 22

Collingwood 11.16 (82) defeated Melbourne 11.10 (76)

– The Magpies, who are currently third, have all but secured a top-four spot
– Only one of Brisbane or Hawthorn, who play each other on Sunday night, can realistically finish above the Magpies and push Craig McRae’s side down to fourth
– Collingwood is on 64 points and has a strong percentage of 122.4. Apart from Hawthorn (122.7), the only other team that could finish on 64 points and be ahead of the Pies on percentage is Greater Western Sydney (115.5). But the Giants would need a remarkable win against St Kilda on Sunday (150-24 as an example) to get past the Pies

Port Adelaide 10.11 (71) defeated Gold Coast 9.13 (67)

– Gold Coast’s top-four chances are over
– The Suns will need to beat Essendon on the final day of the home and away season to clinch a first ever finals berth

Saturday, August 23

North Melbourne v Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm AEST

If the Kangaroos win
– The Crows will finish second if Geelong beats Richmond. They will be minor premiers if the Cats lose

If the Crows win
– They will be crowned minor premiers

Jordan Dawson tackles Luke Davies-Uniacke during Adelaide’s clash against North Melbourne in round three, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Richmond v Geelong at the MCG, 4.15pm AEST

If the Tigers win
– Given how healthy the Cats’ percentage (140.7) is, Geelong is almost certain to still finish in the top four
– The Cats are unlikely to drop any lower than third, which would happen if the Lions beat the Hawks on Sunday night

If the Cats win
– They will finish second if the Crows beat the Kangaroos earlier in the day
– They will be crowned minor premiers if the Crows lose

Jeremy Cameron kicks a goal during Geelong’s clash against Richmond in round 17, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Sunday, August 24

Greater Western Sydney v St Kilda at Engie Stadium, 12.20pm AEST

If the Giants win
– Their finals place, which is all but guaranteed already, will be sealed
– They have a small chance of finishing in the top four. They would need to thrash the Saints and gain 6.9 per cent to overtake Collingwood, or win by any margin and hope the Lions and Hawks draw

If the Saints win
– The Giants are still almost certain to play finals, given they are sixth, and given Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs meet in round 24. GWS (115.5) has a better percentage than the Dockers (108.6), while they are a win ahead of the Bulldogs and Suns (119.5)

Toby Bedford tackles Jack Sinclair during the match between GWS and St Kilda in Gather Round, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, 3.15pm AEST

If the Bulldogs win
– They will play finals in 2025
– The Dockers will miss the finals unless the Suns lose to Essendon on Wednesday night

If the Dockers win
– They will play finals in 2025
– The Bulldogs will miss the finals unless the Suns lose to Essendon on Wednesday night

Luke Jackson in action during Fremantle’s clash against the Western Bulldogs in round four, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Brisbane v Hawthorn at the Gabba, 7.20pm AEST

If the Lions win
– They will seal a top-four finish
– The Lions will finish second if the Cats lose to the Tigers
– The Hawks are still almost certain to play finals, given the Dockers and Bulldogs meet on Sunday. Hawthorn is a win clear of the Bulldogs and Suns, and its percentage (122.7) is significantly better than Fremantle’s (108.6). But the Hawks could still slide back to eighth

If the Hawks win
– They will finish in the top four

Jai Newcombe in action during Hawthorn’s clash against Brisbane in round 11, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Wednesday, August 27

Gold Coast v Essendon at People First Stadium, 7.20pm AEST

If the Suns win
– They will secure a finals spot for the first time in their history

If the Bombers win
– Gold Coast will, incredibly, miss finals, given its percentage (121.2) is significantly worse than the Western Bulldogs’ (140.3)

Xavier Duursma kicks the ball while under pressure from Brayden Fiorini during Essendon’s clash against Gold Coast in round 17, 2025. Picture: Getty Images