Breakouts occur in a variety of different shapes and sizes.

As much as we focus on the singular idea of “a breakout” applying to an ascending or relatively unheralded player establishing themselves as a star, there are more seemingly pedestrian — but impactful — ways to put together a breakout season in the NHL.

For a rebuilding Vancouver Canucks team, every breakout matters. Even if the success of this rebuild will likely be determined by the organization’s ability to identify and acquire superstar-level talent through the draft over the next several years, there is no breakout too small to help this organization make incremental improvements and get back on track.

With that in mind, let’s shine a spotlight on which Canucks could break out this season, what that breakout could look like on an individualized basis and how likely it is to occur over the course of this season. It’s time for our annual Canucks breakout tiers.

Which next gen superstars jumped the highest in the NHL player tiers?

Hronek: Solid first-pair defenceman to widely recognized star

Filip Hronek put together a two-year run as an elite sidekick on a top pair with Quinn Hughes from 2023 through 2025, but around the NHL, his game has never really been rated as highly as similarly positioned defencemen such as Devon Toews, Thomas Harley or even Brock Faber. His form held up better than most of Vancouver’s other blueliners in the disorganized, permissive defensive environment the club slogged through under Adam Foote last season, but in truth, Hronek isn’t really a defensive driver in his own right at five-on-five.

Last year, for example, in Hronek’s minutes playing with Hughes or Marcus Pettersson, Vancouver outscored its opposition by a healthy 30-25 margin — which is pretty remarkable given the team was outscored by a whopping 79 goals at five-on-five last season. However, in his minutes with younger blueliners — Zeev Buium, Tom Willander and Elias Pettersson — Vancouver was massively outscored by a 20-42 margin.

Where Hronek really excelled was when he supplanted Hughes and Buium on Vancouver’s top power-play unit down the stretch. Installed on the right side, Hronek cooked as both a shooter and facilitator at the top of Vancouver’s 1-3-1, and led all NHL defencemen by power-play points rate (minimum 150 power-play minutes).

The contours of Hronek’s five-on-five and power-play profile outline what a further breakout could look like this upcoming season. It starts with carrying a pair at even strength, without the help of a star-level partner or a second top-pair-calibre blueliner on his left side. It continues with sustaining the power-play brilliance he demonstrated down the stretch over the course of a full season.

Likelihood: 4/10

Pettersson: Enigmatic disappointment back to being a fringe top-10 centre

We can’t keep waiting for Elias Pettersson to bounce back to the franchise-level form he demonstrated throughout most of his early 20s.

It’s either going to happen, or it’s not. Either Pettersson’s skating speed and burst will return, allowing him to arrive ahead of the play the way he used to and beat defenders one-on-one with clinical regularity, or it won’t. Either the shot velocity and precision will return to his finishing game, or it won’t.

There’s no significant utility analyzing Pettersson’s game beyond that. Even at his lowest lows the past two seasons, he’s still largely been a capable top-six two-way player, but he’s no longer winning his five-on-five minutes and he’s no longer producing offence at a top-six level.

He gets credit for being willing to go to the hard areas of the ice and to pay the price to block shots, but that’s not how a player with Pettersson’s raw abilities helps an NHL team win games. Until the physical tools — the skating speed, the shooting velocity, the dekes — return on an every-night basis, I don’t know that Canucks fans should keep holding their breath for the old Pettersson to return.

Likelihood: 2/10

Rossi: Underrated middle-sixer to star-level, top-line center

Marco Rossi’s potential to be a breakout performer for Vancouver this upcoming season is being slept on.

Around the league, he just isn’t thought of as a guy with star-level potential at this stage of his career. This is a player, however, who is just entering his prime, has generally been a productive, play-driving presence at the NHL level, has dealt with a variety of injuries and illnesses that have likely affected his development path, and has the sort of bullish profile — an elite CHL scoring profile, high-end production in both the AHL and NHL in his early 20s — worth buying stock in.

Though he’s undersized and is a below-average skater for the position, his willingness to go hard to the blue paint, his playmaking intelligence and his skill level in tight areas have made him a productive player when healthy.

Now throw in a situation where Rossi will orchestrate Vancouver’s power play, play huge five-on-five minutes and is entering the season fully healthy, and you’ve got all of the ingredients for Rossi to produce offence at a point-per-game clip (or near it) this season.

Likelihood: 7/10

Karlsson: Useful depth forward to top-of-the-lineup option

This one just comes down to fitness and speed.

Linus Karlsson did it all for the Canucks last season, leading the team in five-on-five scoring and managing easily the best two-way results of any forward in the lineup. The only problem is that he did it while playing fourth-line minutes at five-on-five, and never really got an opportunity to do more further up the lineup.

It has to be a different story this season. Entering the first year of a two-year extension inked midway through last season, Vancouver needs to figure out what they have in the soon-to-be 27-year-old. Even if he tops out as a solid bottom-six defensive specialist and net-front power-play ace, Karlsson will be one of Vancouver’s best second-wave trade assets over the next 18 months. If Karlsson can do what he did last season, however, in 17 minutes a night instead of 12 …. well, then the conversation around his value — both to this team and on the trade market — shifts significantly.

This is a player Manny Malhotra trusts. Good thing too, because Karlsson has earned the opportunity to play a featured role.

Likelihood: 5/10

Öhgren: Strong energy-line forward to top-six power forward

Between his 90th-percentile shooting velocity and remarkable top-end speed relative to his weight, Liam Öhgren has some genuinely freakish physical tools. Vancouver wasn’t sure Öhgren would stick with the NHL team when he was first acquired in the Hughes trade last season, but he earned a full-time NHL spot and rounded out his game down the stretch. In particular, the potential he showed as a penalty killer opens a path as an impactful bottom-six type — in the mold of a Drew O’Connor — even if his offence never develops.

If that offence develops, however, the Canucks could have a star on their hands.

Öhgren is still just 22, and his profile — first-round pick, stellar AHL production — is promising. The skill level is also evident when you watch him play, especially in the shootout. When it works for him, it really works.

Last season, however, even if he scored five-on-five goals at a fringe top-six rate, his overall point production was pedestrian. He’s now played 97 career NHL games with just 25 points to show for it. It’s worth noting too that while Öhgren passed the eye test when alongside skilled guys — he seemed to have chemistry on a line with Conor Garland, and with Marco Rossi and Brock Boeser — by the underlying numbers those lines generally fared poorly.

If he can put it together and be a speedy top-six worker bee capable of skating with skilled players, he could be a huge supporting piece for this rebuild. What level he can find offensively, however, will determine whether he can break out or not.

Likelihood: 6/10

Buium: Promising offence to one of the best young blueliners in the game

Zeev Buium has the intelligence, the attacking juice and the mentality to be special. To break out further, however, he’s going to need to add weight and muscle — more for the purpose of playing through contact than to aid him on the defensive side — which may be a matter of maturity and time more than a skill development matter.

On the hockey side, Buium has every tool you could ask for, but because he’s left-handed and only 6-0, there’s fragility in his profile. If Buium doesn’t develop into an elite power-play weapon, history tells us his path to being valued as an elite defenceman is a prohibitively narrow one.

Given Hronek’s power-play excellence down the stretch, the bigger Buium breakout — the one that requires him to get significant power-play reps and be a major point producer — may have to wait a bit.

Likelihood: 5/10

Willander: Inconsistency on third pair to two-way difference maker

Tom Willander gets a lot of praise for his tools and athleticism, but the mentality — his willingness to defend — is arguably his strongest asset. This is a player who wants to defend aggressively, and takes pride in that phase of the game. That gives Willander and Vancouver’s coaches a strong baseline to start from.

The questions for Willander arise, however, when it comes to his puck skills and his overall two-way awareness. Willander doesn’t need to be a star-level puck handler to be a strong top-four option who doesn’t take too much off the table offensively in his minutes. He just needs to be sharper about handling passes and more decisive on the breakout.

On the awareness angle, who knows how much of what we saw last season was a product of Willander’s abilities and hockey IQ and how much of it was the product of a dysfunctional on-ice environment. What’s clear is that Vancouver got caved in with Willander on the ice at five-on-five against both top competition and in third-pair minutes last season, and that will have to change if Willander is going to break out as a credible top-four-calibre defenceman in his sophomore season.

Likelihood: 3/10

Lekkerimäki: Incomplete AAAA scorer to top-six NHL regular

Jonathan Lekkerimäki has throttled AHL competition consistently, but he’s struggled to replicate that impact at the NHL level. More than anything else, Lekkerimäki needs to stay healthy. In his draft plus-one campaign, he dealt with mononucleosis. In his first year of North American professional hockey, his season was waylaid in the playoffs by an infection following a dental procedure. Recovering from that episode caused him to lose 10 pounds. Then last season, Lekkerimäki’s season was ended prematurely by shoulder surgery.

Lekkerimäki needs to add core strength more than anything else. He’s not big enough or fast enough to hold up against NHL competition, which has limited his ability to break through in Vancouver.

Given that his offseason was at least partly compromised by recovery, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be ready this fall to address his physical shortcomings. Patience may be required, and given Lekkerimäki is still a year away from requiring waivers, patience is something Vancouver can afford in this instance.

Likelihood: 2/10