The long-term averages for July years (2002 to 2025) were 122,800 migrant arrivals, 91,700 migrant departures, and a net migration gain of 31,200.
Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 232,900 in the October 2023 year in the post-Covid rush, but declined steadily until mid-2025.
Citizens of China, India, the Philippines and Sri Lanka drove net migration gains in the July 2026 year, Stats NZ said.
For the month of July, there was a net gain of 5200. That was up from 2300 in June.
However, July traditionally sees an increase in arrivals on student visas.
“Just under two in five migrant arrivals in July 2026 were on a student visa, coinciding with the start of the second academic semester,” Stats NZ said.
While stronger than expectations, migration data was volatile and the annual figures remained well south of about 46,000 longer-term annual averages, said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.
“We retain our view that net immigration will recover more gradually, with a more meaningful improvement into 2027 as the economic recovery matures.”
Economists expect the economic recovery to gather pace through 2027, which should see the balance of the labour market shift and create more demand for workers.
Employment is traditionally one of the biggest drivers of immigration trends.
Economists have also noted signs of a slowdown in the Australian economy, where interest rates are higher.
HSBC Australia New Zealand chief economist Paul Bloxham has a central case which sees the Australian economy weakening.
As pressure goes on the job market in Australia that may continue to cause an easing of New Zealand migrant departures across the Tasman.
There was a net migration loss of 28,400 people to Australia in the December 2025 year – an improvement on a net migration loss of 31,100 in the December 2024 year.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
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