After two games, half the NFL is either in the penthouse or the outhouse. Rolling and undefeated or reeling and winless.
Now, a 2-0 start doesn’t guarantee anything—since the postseason expanded to 14 teams in 2020, one in four teams that start the season 2-0 miss the playoffs altogether. Conversely, an 0-2 start isn’t the kiss of death. In each of the past two seasons, three teams that started the season 0-2 made the playoffs. Three teams that have started the season with back-to-back losses won the Super Bowl—the 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants.
In other words, at least one of this year’s hot starters will probably falter and wind up watching the playoffs from home. And there’s a real chance that one of those slow starters will shake it off and get into the postseason tournament.
Here’s a look at the chances each actually happens.