Travis Hamonic to the Detroit Red Wings? Honestly, not even close to the worst contract those guys have on the blueline.

Had us in the First Half, Not Gonna Lie

Was there a single NHL star who was unluckier in the first half of the season than Jake Sanderson? He had a measly six even-strength points in the first 41 games of the season. Folks will blame Hamonic for his lack of results early on, and to be fair, that pairing was third-worst in the entire league in that span in terms of 5-on-5 shooting percentage at 2.79%. However, you might be surprised to know that by that same metric, Sanderson and Artem Zub were even worse – more than twice as bad, even, with a revolting 1.15%. You can’t possibly think that’s sustainable, right?

Thankfully, it wasn’t. Take a look at Sanderson’s numbers, split across the two halves of the season:

Game Range
5v5 Points
5v5 Sh% w/ Zub
5v5 Sh% w/ Hamonic

1-41
5
1.15%
2.79%

42-82
17
9.96%
N/A

That 9.96% with Zub in the second half is above-average, but at the 59th percentile, it’s not unsustainably high. At the very least, we should expect the norm to be closer to that mark than the 0th percentile from the first half.

With 17 even-strength points in the second half, that would equate to 34 points over a full season, 11 more than the 23 he had in 2024-25. Factoring in his 30 power-play points, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to see a 70-point campaign from Sanderson this coming year with a full year of Dylan Cozens, Fabian Zetterlund, and David Perron.

Jake Sanderson scores his 3rd of the season on the power play! #Gosensgo pic.twitter.com/c9uiMrkbrj

— Coming In Hot (@ComingInHotSens) January 18, 2025
Shane Pinto: Olympic Workhorse?

USA Hockey released a 44-man roster for its Olympic orientation camp, which takes place on August 26th – 27th, on Tuesday. As expected, Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson will be attending, but a third Senator will be joining them as a heavy underdog – Shane Pinto, who put up 37 points in 70 games this past season.

While the Americans are likely going to run some permutation of Jack Hughes, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, and Tage Thompson down the middle, Pinto has potential as a niche option on the bottom-six as a shutdown and penalty killing center. Among the NHL’s regular penalty killers last season, Pinto ranked in the 94th percentile in takeaways per 60 minutes, while also ranking highly in production as well as expected goals share on the kill.

Not that I even remotely care about Team USA, but if Pinto wants a chance at an Olympic medal, that’s great news for the Senators, because he most definitely understands he needs to raise his overall level of play in order to make that club.

An EDGE in Penalty Differential

As part of NHL.com’s 32 in 32 series, which featured the Sens on Wednesday, Troy Perlowitz provided a few insights on the league’s EDGE stats, which include skating speed and distance as well as shot speed and location.

Here, I’ll focus on their skating-related stats. They track 22-plus mile-per-hour bursts, which does seem arbitrary, but Tim Stützle ranked fourth in the league among forwards, while Sanderson ranked just behind Cale Makar among defensemen.

Perlowitz draws a correlation between the shiftiness of those two, and the Sens being the best team at drawing penalties last season, and NaturalStatTrick’s data supports this theory in Stützle’s case – he ranked 14th among forwards in penalties drawn last season. Brady Tkachuk (7th) and Nick Cousins (21st) also ranked near the top, but in their case I suspect a good chunk of those drawn penalties are coincidental – both take slightly more than they draw. Whereas Stützle is in a class of his own in terms of the combination of high-end skill, discipline and drawing penalties.

Can Linus Make His ‘Mark in the Playoffs?

Another segment of NHL.com’s feature were three key questions regarding Sanderson’s progression, Cozens building on his strong start with Ottawa, and Linus Ullmark’s postseason track record. I’ve already gushed over Sanderson, and both he and Cozens have Top 25 Under 25 entries coming soon, so I’ll focus on our 32-year-old starting goaltender here. I’ve given him a bit of a hard time for his record of 5-10-0 and .885 save percentage in the playoffs, but the reality is that Ullmark just doesn’t have a ton of postseason experience. That’s not the reason he hasn’t delivered the required results, but the sample size is still very small on account of treading water for years on the Sabres. The more the Sens win in the regular season, the more playoff games he’ll get to play, and his results will most likely regress closer and closer to his average of .917.

“Buy Low, Sell High” is as Simple as it Sounds

Most including myself believe the Sens are a top-six winger away from contending for a Cup. Steve Staios has put together what should be a playoff-caliber roster with enough cap space for an upgrade at the trade deadline, but the big question is whether or not he has the assets to win a bidding war for said upgrade. I’m expecting the Pittsburgh Penguins to have another losing season and listen to offers for Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, for example. Veterans with term on affordable salaries will cost at least a first-round pick, and I’d be alright with a protected 2027 1st being moved as part of a package for either of them.

Another option was one I touched upon in our last newsletter ($$$), and is somewhat relevant to Frank Nazar’s recently signed 7-year deal with Chicago. Teams are looking to secure their young talent at a bargain price in the long term in exchange for overpaying in the short term – not all of these will work out, however.

Take Cozens, who was perceived to be on a bad contract (5 years remaining at $7.1M) with 31 points in 61 games with Buffalo before the Sens bought low from a desperate Sabres team. With 16 points in 21 games to close out the year, Cozens’ value is rising, and if those totals are sustainable, the contract will end up being very fair, perhaps even a bargain after the cap rises again next season.

A player in a similar situation I’d look at targeting would be 2020 1st-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere. Coming off a down season in the Big Apple, known for letting the fruits of their drafting rot away with poor development of forwards, in which he had just 45 points in 82 games, continued struggles would see his value decrease to the point where Staios could work his magic once again. Ottawa will have upwards of $32 million in cap space in the 2026 offseason with no bad contracts, so they’re one such team that can afford to assume the risk of a seven-year term at $7.45M. And the reward would be massive – a player entering his prime who would address the team’s need on the wing for years to come.