This is the kind of thing I was talking about down the stretch. I felt the Cubs wouldn’t be backed down or awed by the situation. This is an experienced club. At the end of the day, this didn’t come down to injured pitchers or one eyed third basemen. It didn’t come down to one team scuffling a bit or another one that is on a major role. It came down to exactly one scenario. The Cubs needed to have a pitcher good enough to shove for seven innings against a good offensive team. They needed one because the Padres had one.
With the stuff that modern pitchers have, when they are clicking on all cylinders and not making any mistakes, it is very difficult to get anything going. For what it was worth, their hitters did have patience. They drew three walks from Michael King, who was pumping the strike zone with frisbees. When you see a hitter who is among the best in the game and in a good groove himself like Alex Bregman flailing with half swings at where the ball maybe used to be, it’s not hard to understand how mystifying King was. You definitely hat tip to him.
Is there some chance that maybe if Cub pitching were matching zeroes that he’d have at least broken a sweat? Sure. It was unfortunate that the Padres ambushed Cub starter Matthew Boyd and jumped on him instantly. A hat tip to the Padre scouting department. They had a plan as a team and they executed it. They’d clearly prepared for Boyd. They swung early and often and as was noted on the broadcast, they were able to recognize balls and strikes and only swing at the strikes. They were amazingly prepared.
That was about as unfortunate a game as you could possibly get in a short series. Not only did you lose and make the Padres feel even more confident about their game planning, you didn’t force them to use any significant reliever. They have a fully stocked bullpen that was already known to be lethal. In the short history of these three game Wild Card series, the team that has won the first game has won almost every series. I have no doubt that will level off at a lower level than it’s at so far, but it is the simple math of the format. One win gives you so many advantages in the series. Given that you had to give the Padres the edge in the first place (home field, better record, better pitching), you’d have to make them overwhelming favorites to advance at this point.
Again, the Cubs won’t back down. If Game 2 unfolds more like an ordinary game, the Cubs will be in the fight. But the Cubs were always a good, not great team. This is a tough assignment if this team is going to hold off the offseason.
Turn the page. Slow the game down. Do what you do. Hope it is enough.
Nico Hoerner had two of the three Cub hits.Seiya Suzuki had the other hit and drew a walk.Pete Crow-Armstrong had a walk and stole a base. What almost was, he came very close to robbing that first homer. One wonders if it would have shifted the energy at all.
Wild Card Game 1, September 29: Padres 8, Cubs 0
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.083). 1-3, BBHero/Sidekick: Michael Conforto/Jacob Webb (.000). Conforto: 0-1; Webb: 1.1 IP, 5 BF, 2 HBilly Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.203). 4 IP, 17 BF, 5 H, BB, 4 R, 4 K (L 0-1)Goat: Ian Happ (-.074). 0-3, BBKid: Pedro Ramirez (-.057). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Fernando Tatis Jr. homered on the first pitch in the bottom of the first. (.105)
Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki reached on a throwing error by Xander Bogaerts and was awarded second leading off the second inning. (.062)
Note: 18 of the 75 WPA events recorded for this game were recorded at .000.
Up Next: Game 2 in San Diego will see Kevin Gausman for the Cubs. Kevin was 9-12 with a 4.51 in the regular season. He did have a 4-2 record as a Cub, but also posted a 4.83 ERA and had the Cub longball problem, allowing 11 homers in only 50.1 innings. It’s obvious the Cubs need to add more talent to their pitching staff in 2027. It’s even more obvious that they need to examine everything in their training and medical department to determine if any amount of their injury woes could have been prevented or lessened. But also, the Cubs need to look at if there is a further issue with some of their approach. Gausman is an exhibit of a pitcher with a long track record who allowed almost as many homers with the Cubs (11) as with the Blue Jays (15), despite throwing more than 70 percent of his innings with the Jays.
Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86) starts for the Padres. Pivetta missed most of this year with a right elbow injury. The 33-year-old righty was excellent when healthy. He made four starts in September, throwing a total of 18.2 innings and allowing three runs on 15 hits. He struck out 18 and walked two. He got up to 87 pitches in his last start and that’s usually the threshold where a pitcher is pretty much good to go. I imagine if he is in a groove, they’d let him approach 100 pitches. And with a fully loaded bullpen and blood in the water, if he struggles at all, I imagine they’ll happily try to steal a game with their bullpen. I have no doubt the Padres could run this game as a bullpen game and still be able to bring their key guys back again for game three.
I thought Gausman should have started that first game. I have to wonder about his health after that diving play he made in his last game. Hopefully the Cub bats can get in the fight. It’s still since July 30 that the Cubs won a game without hitting a homer. Teams that hit more homers tend to win games. Teams that don’t score any runs continue to lose every time. So it’s now or never.