After 210 games, 17,000 minutes and more than 10,000 points, it all comes down to the 2026 NRL grand final. One decider. Two desperate teams. The Roosters, a star-studded outfit with four premierships in 25 years and speed, power and tactical brilliance across the park. And the Knights, 25 years without a title and coming off a wooden spoon last year, yet riding an irresistible wave built on blue-collar courage and underdog characters.

The paths to the grand final

The Roosters are hot favourites to win a 16th premiership after compiling a 16-8 win-loss record to finish fourth. Yet, in the final round, they were thrashed 20-50 by their arch-rivals South Sydney and no side has won the NRL title after such a belting. They even dropped their first final to Penrith 12-19 before rebounding to smash the Sharks 46-10 to make the prelim where they flogged the Dolphins 36-20 at Suncorp.

Bradman Best embodies the mood after the Knights’ stunning preliminary final win over the Panthers. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Newcastle have taken the long way around, finishing with a 14-10 win-loss ledger and scraping into the finals in seventh spot. No team has won the title from there before but the Knights ambushed the Rabbitohs 20-10 at Allianz to make it to the second week, then upset the Warriors 12-10 at Eden Park before a last week’s heroics against the Panthers, defending with 12 men for 44 minutes to triumph 22-14.

The form guide

The emotion of three consecutive boilovers in enemy territory may have drained the Knights. But their form and belief – and the support of the 70,000 Novacastrians expected at Accor Stadium on Sunday – could build them into an unstoppable force. By comparison, the Roosters have cruised into the decider and had an extra day’s rest. It’s their 13th finals campaign in Trent Robinson’s 14 years in charge. They’re calm.

They also have the Knights’ measure, having beaten them in their last six contests and 20 of the past 23. In April, the Chooks won 38-24 despite being 12-24 down at half-time. A five-try second-half blitz led by a double to Mark Nawaqanitawase kept the Knights scoreless for the final 40 minutes. The July rematch was four tries apiece before Daly Cherry-Evans potted a field goal in the 77th minute to steal it 23-22.

The Knights 2025 season was a shocker. They won just six games and collected the wooden spoon. This year, under the cool hand of Justin Holbrook, Newcastle have flipped the fairytale script, averaging 25 points scored and 23 leaked in games this season with captain Kalyn Ponga in the form of his life.

The gamechangers

Cherry-Evans won a premiership in his rookie season with Manly in 2011, but last year dumped the Sea Eagles for the Tricolours to chase another title a record 15 seasons after his first. This will be the 37-year-old’s final NRL game before shipping out to Hull. He will be hoping to echo the feats of another Queensland pivot Cooper Cronk, who led the Roosters to glory in 2018-19.

Mark Nawaqanitawase’s Roosters teammates flock to him after a try in the preliminary final. Photograph: Matt Roberts/Getty Images

In just 46 appearances, Nawaqanitawase has turned himself into the most electric winger in the game, scoring 45 tries, many befitting the all-time highlights reel. This is his last NRL game before rejoining rugby union. The Roosters will be counting on his golden run rolling on, but Knights flyer Dominic Young, an equally brilliant aerial exponent and try-scorer, has the talent to steal his thunder.

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Ponga, the nine-season Knights talisman, leads from the back, averaging 17 runs a game and has forged a heathen chemistry with maverick playmaker Fletcher Sharpe, a local product who wasn’t even born the last time Newcastle won a premiership.

Ponga’s ghostly lines and guile at fullback are matched by his opposite number and fellow captain James Tedesco, a 33-year-old who averages 19 charges per game. Both thrive on chaos, slicing through defensive lines in disarray, and will be hunted early by the hit men on both sides – Victor Radley and Lindsay Collins for the Roosters, Tyson Frizell and Cody Hopwood for the Knights.

The Knights will be missing Phoenix Crossland, suspended for his hip-drop tackle on 2026 Dally M winner Nathan Cleary last week, and also marquee man Dylan Brown. The Roosters are full-strength, having welcomed back little master Sam Walker from injury last week. His battle with Knights pocket rocket Sandon Smith – a Roosters reject turned Newcastle hero – is a flyweight bout with heavyweight consequences.

Prediction

Grand finals are personal. Every individual must conquer his fears then funnel his courage into the 13-man flow state that transforms a finals side into a premier. The Roosters have the class and composure of a team built around big-name players with grand final experience. It should be enough to win easily. But Newcastle is a coal-town team that burn brightest when they’re running on fumes. No side in 92 years has traded a wooden spoon for the trophy the next year, but this squad is feral and fearless enough to do it. It’s the Roosters’ party but the Knights are primed to crash it.