Ben Carroll and Greens leader Ellen Sandell war of words

Premier Ben Carroll has declared he would rather “throw the keys back” than strike a deal with the Greens to form government.

Seven weeks from the state election, Mr Carroll on Monday delivered his strongest rejection yet of leading a minority government backed by the left-wing party.

In move that could risk sending Victorians back to the ballot box, the Premier claimed he had “ruled out” any agreement with the Greens.

“I’ll throw the keys back,” he told ABC Radio.

“I can’t be any more clear than that.”

Mr Carroll said he was confident that Labor was going to win Greens seats, noting Labor volunteers had been campaigning in electorates held by the minor party, including Melbourne and Richmond.

The bold claims have fired up the Greens with Victorian Leader Ellen Sandell describing his comments as “arrogant and deluded”.

They will also heap pressure on Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, who has failed to directly rule out doing a deal with One Nation.

In March, she rejected the prospect of an alliance with the surging minor party, but in recent months has said she is focused on securing an outright majority.

On Monday, she rubbished Mr Carroll’s claims that he wouldn’t strike a deal with the Greens.

“Half the Labor MPs in the parliament are elected off Greens preferences so just look at where the facts lie,” she said.

If neither Labor nor the Coalition wins the 45 seats needed for a majority in the lower house, a party or coalition could still form government with support from minor parties or independents.

That support could come in two forms.

They could strike a formal coalition agreement, or minority government with guarantees of “confidence and supply” from crossbench MPs.

“Confidence and supply” means those MPs agree to back the government in confidence motions and on appropriation bills, allowing it continue governing and spend money.

Carroll Government ministers have made it their mission to tie the Coalition to One Nation, claiming that they would need to join forces to form government.

Polling over recent months has put the Coalition ahead of Labor.

However, the opposition has struggled to lift its primary vote above 30 per cent amid a surge in support for One Nation which is polling about a quarter of the vote – on par with Labor.

At the disastrous 2022 election, the Coalition’s primary vote was 34 per cent.

The Greens vote has remained steady on about 14 per cent.

Ms Sandell slammed Mr Carroll’s comments on Monday as she mirrored her federal Greens Leader David Shoebridge’s claim the Greens were aiming to “replace” Labor.

“I don’t think Labor is in any position to be making these claims when they’re struggling to even crack 25 per cent of the vote,” she said.

“It seems arrogant and deluded to think progressive voters are going to come rushing back to a tired 12-year-old government that’s opening up new gas, demolishing public housing and making life more expensive for Victorians.

“We’re not here to prop up Labor, we’re here to replace them.”

Redbridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said minority government was the “best-case scenario” for Labor based on current polling.

He said Mr Carroll could afford to make the bold pledge not to strike a deal with the Greens because the minor party’s voters would overwhelmingly preference Labor anyway.

“Greens voters, as opposed to Greens members, have consistently preferenced Labor at 85 per cent across most geographies and age groups,” he said.

“That trend alters very little if the Greens hand out instructions to preference against Labor.”