ndonesia’s nickel processing boom is outpacing the country’s reserves, with experts warning of depletion within a decade and urging the government to shift from price support to policies that sustain ore longevity.
Irwandy Arif, president commissioner of state-owned mining company PT Aneka Tambang, warned on Sept. 21 that rising smelter capacity inevitably accelerated reserve depletion. At 735 million tonnes of production, saprolite reserves would last just six years and limonite reserves about 16.
“We are still in the middle. We are just moving toward industrialization, not yet toward finished products,” he said, as reported by PojokSatu.id, adding that this meant Indonesia was failing to capture the full potential value from the strategic resource, as the industrial chain remains stuck at the intermediate product stage.
The warning underscores a deeper critique from Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Andry Satrio Nugroho, who argues that the government’s production restrictions, while necessary, miss the point: They must shift from propping up prices to preserving the longevity of Indonesia’s ore reserves.
“The reduction in [mining companies’] annual production plan [RKAB] quotas [for 2026] was intended to boost global nickel prices,” Andry told The Jakarta Post on Sunday. “However, the mineral benchmark price [HMA] for the first period of October 2026 actually fell to US$16,323 per dry metric tonne [dmt].”
Worse, he said, the cuts came after smelter capacity had already been built. Smelter ore requirements are estimated at 310 million to 400 million tonnes, while imports from the Philippines amount to only around 23 million tonnes.
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The impact is already visible, with Weda Bay Nickel halting production in late May and reducing its workforce.