As the defending Supercars’ champion Mostert has rarely shone this season, but talent will out at some stage in a season. He also has the best active fulltime driver record at Bathurst, having won in 2014 and 2021 and been on the podium in 2022.
Having Coulthard as a wingman is a big positive. He’s experienced, knows the circuit like the back of his hand and will not rely on Mostert to make up for lost time after his stint. He was very quick last year before the car retired.
Manufacturer Toyota will be throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at getting its first outright win at the Mountain having accumulated 13 class wins.
2. Brodie Kostecki and Todd Hazelwood
Winning chance – 20%
Todd Hazelwood (left) and Brodie Kostecki are teaming up at Bathurst. Photo / Getty Images
These two know how to win at Bathurst and stood on top of the podium after putting the rest of the field to the sword in 2024 when they led 157 of the 161 laps from pole. Knowing how to win the race as a pair is more important than individually because you have shared the strategic and psychological battles together.
Kostecki has been one of the strongest drivers in 2026 with seven wins (the most this season) and six poles. He has three consecutive Bathurst poles (2023, 2024, 2025) and could become the first driver to make it four in a row.
Hazelwood isn’t merely a co-driver in the strictest sense. He’s a Bathurst winner with heaps of fulltime experience who is comfortable running at the front of the pack. What puts them a little on the back foot is their Bend result was poor as they finished 17th. DJR as a team haven’t looked good of late over full-race distance, but it is Bathurst and that seems to bring the best out of Kostecki.
3. Broc Feeney and Nick Percat
Winning chance – 18%
Broc Feeney (left) and Nick Percat. Photo / Getty Images
Feeney is one of the fastest drivers in the category and has the second most wins (six) this season and four poles. He won the Sprint Cup after being handed it when Matt Payne had a rear mechanical failure after being odds-on to win. When his Triple Eight garage gives him a good car in the sweet spot, Feeney is nigh on unbeatable. A Bathurst win has eluded him so far, but it should only be a matter of time before he notches up his first success.
Percat is the joker in the pack here. He is a former Bathurst winner, albeit in 2011, and brings more experience to the Mountain than most co-drivers. Like Kostecki and Hazelwood, The Bend wasn’t a good weekend for the pair as they finished 24th. Through no fault of his own, Percat got caught up in a number of incidents that belied his and the car’s speed.
Triple Eight understands how to engineer and strategise this race better than almost any other team in the pit lane and has 10 winner’s trophies, more than any other race team to contest The Great Race.
4. Matt Payne and Will Davison
Winning chance – 17%
The championship leader and defending Bathurst 1000 champion Payne cannot be left out. If Garth Tander was still doing co-driver duties the pair would head the list. Nothing against the pedigree of Payne’s new co-pilot Will Davison, but they are a new pairing at the Mountain. Both have experienced the ups, downs and heartaches of this peculiar race separately, but not together in the confined space of a cockpit.
Payne has cemented himself in 2026 as the most complete young driver in the category and knocked the Bathurst “monkey” off his back with last year’s win. He also arrives at the track leading the championship and locked inside the top 10 for the Finals Series, so can just concentrate on the race.
Davison is by no means a potential weak link. He is a two-time Bathurst winner (2009 and 2016). He brings racecraft, a deep understanding of how a car works and a vast amount of Bathurst knowledge. The pair’s sixth place at The Bend was a little misleading. Payne was caught in early trouble, then worked his way rapidly towards the front before further dramas.
Fellow Kiwi Shane van Gisbergen was the last driver to win back-to-back titles (2022 and 2023) and it’s possible for Payne to repeat the feat.
5. Cam Waters and Mark Winterbottom
Winning chance – 13%
Waters’ qualifying record at Bathurst is remarkable. For the past seven years he’s started from either the front or second row and his 10-year average start position is fourth. Waters’ one-lap speed is undeniable but he has yet to convert that into a race win.
It’s turning into a bit of an anomaly as he’s come so close on a number of occasions (second with Will Davison in 2020, and with James Moffat he was second in 2021, third in 2022 and fourth in 2024), but no cigar so far.
His team Tickford has more often than not given him a car capable of running at the front around the Mountain and potentially winning. Maybe this year.
With the addition of Winterbottom in the driver’s seat, the prospects of Waters winning his first Bathurst 100 have significantly improved. Their 15th-place finish at The Bend isn’t a true indicator of what the pair can achieve because of the atrocious race conditions that day.
Winterbottom won at Bathurst in 2013 and will bring a winner’s mindset into the cockpit, and if Tickford nails strategy and gives Waters a clean final stint, this could be the year he converts years of Bathurst promise into victory.
That leaves 10% for the rest of the field, headed by Will Brown and Scott Pye, Ryan Wood and Jaxon Evans and Kai Allen and Tim Slade.