Apple opens pre-orders for the iPhone Duo in Japan at 9 p.m. on October 16, with the device reaching stores on October 23. The 256GB base model is priced at 364,800 yen on Apple’s Japanese online store, and the 2TB configuration reaches 574,800 yen, making it the most expensive iPhone Apple has sold in the country. In the US, the same base model costs $1,999.

Japan should be fertile ground: Apple accounts for roughly half of the country’s smartphone shipments. But the consumer data gathered ahead of launch points the other way. A survey of 539 adults conducted for Nikkei MJ by research firm Intage found that only 4% currently use a foldable phone and about 90% have no intention of buying one, with 72% citing price as the reason. Several independent surveys published over the past five months reach a similar conclusion from different angles.

Three More Surveys, One Message: Too Expensive, Too Unclear

MM Research Institute surveyed 1,084 people aged 15 to 69 in July 2026. Among those who had never used a foldable, 48.1% said they did not want to buy one, 41.9% said they would consider it, and just 10.0% said they wanted one. Notably, the most common reason for rejecting foldables was not price but “I don’t see the benefit of folding” (41.7%), followed by high device prices, fragility, and size and weight.

A May 2026 survey of 500 iPhone users by ALL CONNECT’s telecom publication, taken before Apple announced the device, found 40.2% interested in a foldable iPhone and 49.0% not interested. Among the interested group, 66.7% said they would pay under 150,000 yen, and only 2.5% — one in 40 — would consider a price of 250,000 yen or more. When asked which upgrades would justify a higher iPhone price, a foldable design ranked last of six options at 9.2%, far behind longer battery life at 79.0%.

A July 2026 survey of 300 smartphone users by IID’s LiPro service showed 78.3% had never used a foldable phone. Durability was the top concern (37.3%), narrowly ahead of price (34.3%), and 58.3% placed their acceptable price range below 150,000 yen. Forty percent said they had no plans to buy, while 37.0% said they would wait and see.

SurveyDateSampleKey findingNikkei MJ / IntagePublished Oct 2026539 adults~90% no intention to buy; 72% cite priceMM Research InstituteConducted Jul 20261,084 people aged 15–69Non-users: 48.1% would not buy; top reason “no clear benefit” (41.7%)ALL CONNECTConducted May 2026500 iPhone users66.7% of interested users want a price under ¥150,000IID LiProConducted Jul 2026300 smartphone usersTop worry durability (37.3%); 58.3% want a price under ¥150,000

The surveys use different samples and questions, so their percentages are not directly comparable. What they share is a consistent price ceiling: the iPhone Duo’s starting price is about 2.4 times the 150,000-yen level that most interested respondents named.

A Steeper Price Than Rival Foldables

The iPhone Duo also costs more than the Android foldables already on Japanese shelves. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8, released in Japan on August 7, starts at 269,880 yen on Samsung’s official store, and Google’s Pixel 11 Pro Fold starts at 279,900 yen. That puts the iPhone Duo 94,920 yen above the Galaxy and 84,900 yen above the Pixel. The gap is narrower in the US, where the Galaxy Z Fold8 starts at $1,900, just $99 below the iPhone Duo.

Apple is leaning on financing to soften the headline price. Through Apple’s 36-month interest-free installment plan with a trade-in of an iPhone 16 Pro, the effective total falls to 264,800 yen. Pricing from Japan’s major carriers had not been announced as of the latest public listings.

On durability, Apple has an argument to make. The iPhone Duo carries an IP68 rating, meaning it is dust-tight, whereas Samsung’s latest Galaxy Z Fold models are rated IP48 and are only protected against particles larger than 1mm. The iPhone Duo’s inner display also ships with a factory-fitted protective layer with a nano-texture coating that reduces glare and makes the crease less visible. Apple has not yet published out-of-warranty repair prices for the device.

A 1% Market Waiting for a Catalyst

According to MM Research Institute, 334,000 foldable phones shipped in Japan in fiscal 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026), just 1.1% of 31.33 million smartphones. Samsung held 67.7% of those shipments, followed by Motorola, Google and ZTE; the four brands accounted for the entire category. Globally, foldables made up 1.4% of the 1.225 billion smartphones shipped in calendar 2025, or 17.2 million units.

The firm expects the iPhone Duo to change that trajectory. It forecasts Japanese foldable shipments of 760,000 units in fiscal 2026, 2.3 times the previous year and 2.6% of the market, rising to 1.02 million units (3.6%) in fiscal 2027 and 1.53 million in fiscal 2030.

The forecast and the surveys are not necessarily in conflict. Doubling a 1% market requires only a small minority of buyers, and even the most pessimistic survey leaves roughly one in ten consumers open to a purchase. The harder question is whether foldables can move beyond early adopters, which MM Research Institute’s own data suggests depends on convincing consumers of what the form factor is for, not only on lowering prices.

Apple Shifts Orders Toward Higher-Priced Models

Outside Japan, Apple’s supply chain is preparing for stronger demand. Securities Times, citing Apple suppliers, reported on October 10 that Apple raised iPhone Duo orders by 30%, though total volume remains below 10 million units. It also cut iPhone 18 Pro orders by 10% to 15% while raising iPhone 18 Pro Max orders by the same proportion, leaving the Pro lineup’s total unchanged. One supply chain source said the mix shift toward higher-value products would benefit Apple’s suppliers.

In China, where the iPhone Duo starts at 15,999 yuan, more than 2.01 million users had registered interest on JD.com as of 2 p.m. on October 10. Those registrations are free and non-binding. Counterpoint Research expects the iPhone Duo to sell about 6 million units in 2026 and forecasts Apple will take 25% of global foldable shipments this year, second to Samsung at 38% and ahead of Huawei at 22%.

Rivals Move Early

Competitors are not waiting for Apple’s launch. Huawei executive Richard Yu said at a September 29 media roundtable that sales of the company’s landscape-style Pura X Max rose 76% in the week after Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo, without disclosing the baseline or unit numbers. He said cumulative sales had passed 1 million units since the April launch and claimed Huawei holds a 75% share of China’s foldable market.

Several rivals have adopted the same wide “passport” shape as the iPhone Duo. Xiaomi’s 18 Fold, launched days before Apple’s announcement, matches the iPhone Duo’s 7.6-inch inner and 5.4-inch outer screens while weighing 219 grams versus 254 grams, though it is sold only in China. Oppo’s Find N6 keeps a conventional book-style design and is 8.93mm thick when closed, compared with the iPhone Duo’s 11.3mm. Motorola’s Razr Fold, sold in the US, offers 6,000 nits of peak brightness on its inner screen, twice the iPhone Duo’s 3,000 nits.

DeviceInner displayWeightStarting priceMarketiPhone Duo7.6 in254 g¥364,800 / $1,999Japan / USGalaxy Z Fold87.6 in201 g¥269,880 / $1,900Japan / USPixel 11 Pro Fold8.0 in239 g¥279,900JapanXiaomi 18 Fold7.6 in219 gCNY 10,999ChinaOppo Find N68.12 in225 gCNY 9,999ChinaMotorola Razr Fold8.1 in243 g$1,900US

The first test comes on October 16, when pre-orders open in Japan and carriers reveal their pricing and subsidies. Whether carrier discounts and trade-in offers can bring the effective cost closer to what Japanese consumers say they are willing to pay will determine whether the iPhone Duo expands Japan’s foldable market or remains a premium niche product.