England’s hopes of reaching the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals are still very much alive – but only after a comprehensive win over France on Saturday morning.

Brian McDermott’s side kicked off against the French in Perth knowing they needed to not only win their remaining two group games, but overturn a margin of 150 points against Samoa in the process.

There is now only one definitive way through: beat Papua New Guinea by a fair margin, and hope Tonga defeat Samoa. But the fact England play some 48 hours beforehand means they have the opportunity to make it slightly less nervy, with their game against Papua New Guinea in Wollongong on Friday.

In contrast, Samoa and Tonga will both know what they need to do when they take to the field on Sunday. Here’s what could happen.

England win by 67 or more

It’s a tall ask, but England showed on Saturday morning that they have the ability to score plenty of points. The opposition will certainly be a step up when they face the Kumuls, though.

But having scored 82 points against the French, they have given themselves at least a slither of a chance of qualification for the final four.

Those chances will be enhanced further next weekend if they can pick up a win against Papua New Guinea by 67 points or more. If they do that, it means a Tongan victory of any kind, even by just a solitary point, will be enough to tip it England’s win and nudge them through on points difference at the expense of Samoa.

But if the winning margin is lower than 67, it makes things very, very nervy indeed.

England win by fewer than 67

Winning by 67 or more at least takes some of the nerves out of tuning in on Sunday morning as newly-found Tongan supporters. If England do that on Friday, then any win for Tonga is enough.

But if they don’t, then every single Tongan point is going to matter, with the points difference between England and Samoa currently standing at 68 points in favour of the 2022 finalists.

It’s pretty straightforward; for every point fewer than 67 England win by, that’s going to mean Tonga must make that deficit up for England. So if England win by 60, they need a 8-point Tongan win. Win by 40, and that margin is going to be as high as 28 – which starts to enter the realms of impossible, given how good Samoa are.

It does look as though that final quarter in Port Moresby on Saturday morning could end up being crucial, potentially. Samoa scored a whopping SIX tries in that time period, which has nudged their differential out to what could be an unassailable advantage.

If England don’t score enough points next Friday, then they will be watching and praying for a Tongan miracle.

There is a third scenario of course: if England lose to the Kumuls, then they’re out full stop. The Kumuls, incidentally, would then need to hope Samoa win that final group game because they’ve already lost to Samoa, and it’s decided on head-to-head as a primary factor.

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