The figures show carbon dioxide emissions are about 64 per cent of total emissions in Australia, and have declined 38 per cent since June 2005, mainly because of renewable energy and using land as a carbon sink. Methane emissions – which come from agriculture, coal mining and landfill – are about 29 per cent of Australia’s total greenhouse output. They have declined 16 per cent in the past 20 years.

The Climate Change Authority will imminently recommend a revised 2035 target, which is expected to be in the 65-75 per cent range, after undertaking a thorough sector-by-sector review of where cuts could be made. Of the 1800 voters surveyed by Resolve, 44 per cent supported – and only 18 per cent opposed – this goal.

The Coalition is split over climate policy and Labor has taken the rare decision to allow parliament to debate a private member’s bill put forward by former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce that would force Australia to abandon its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.

However, a private member’s bill put forward by independent MP Zali Steggall to improve the transparency and frequency of climate risk reporting and mandate the development of fully funded adaptation plans, is unlikely to be debated.

Climateworks Centre Australia policy lead Anna Malos endorsed the government’s claim to be on track for 2030, but called for the 2035 target to be far more ambitious.

“With decisive, increased action across all sectors, there are many more opportunities to cut emissions well beyond current expectations,” Malos said. “Now is the time to set the country up for success”.

Modelling by Climateworks and CSIRO suggests Australia could reduce emissions by 85 per cent by 2035, based on technology adoption. If aiming to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, Australia would also need to aim for net zero before 2040, more than a decade sooner than its current commitment.

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming “well below 2 degrees” and to limit it to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but current national pledges mean the world is currently heading for 2.6-3.1 degrees of warming by 2100.

Dan Tehan, the opposition spokesman for energy and emissions reduction, pointed out that the quarterly report stated that annual national emissions had remained relatively flat in recent years.

“Labor’s 2030 targets won’t be met,” he said.

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Professor Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Australian National University, said overall emissions levels had been flatlining over the past three years.

“Achieving the 43 per cent emissions target by 2030 will require a significant change in pace,” Jotzo said.

“The bigger question is the 2035 target, which will soon need to be decided and communicated to the UN, will be much stronger than 2030 … and this will require very significant upscaling of the policy effort.”

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