“How much more pressure can we put on Australian families?”
That was the question posed late this week by NSW mortgage broker Rachelle Kroon as “everyone is talking about another interest rate rise” when the RBA meets this coming week.
“How does making mortgages more expensive, make fuel cheaper? The answer is, it doesn’t. It just gives mortgage holders less money to spend elsewhere in the economy, and that does slow inflation to an extent,” she said in a video shared on social media.
“But remember, only 33 per cent of Australians have a mortgage, and we’re asking them to do an awful lot of heavy lifting.”
And it’s likely only getting heavier with traders in money markets positioning for the official cash rate to go above 5 per cent.
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Rising interest rates don’t just hit mortgage holders. It also hit business owners with loans and makes business borrowing less likely. It also supports the Australian currency, making imports less expensive, putting downward pressure on prices. While the RBA has expressed frustration with the focus on the plight of mortgage holders amid rate hikes, the millions of households paying off their home are undeniably bearing the brunt of the inflation fight.
According to the latest data by Roy Morgan, the number of households considered “at risk” of mortgage stress has jumped to nearly 32 per cent, and increased 7.9 per cent this year with the RBA already handing down four interest rate hikes in 2026.
That is nearing the record high of 35.6 per cent in mid-2008 when the official cash rate hit a 30-year high of 7.25 per cent.
Rising incomes have helped moderate the level of mortgage stress, which Roy Morgan says is based on a certain percentage of household income going towards repayments (while households over that level on interest only repayments are considered “extremely at risk”). But the rise this year brings the total number of people facing mortgage stress to about 1.75 million, the polling company said.
“This year the RBA has increased interest rates four times which has significantly increased mortgage repayments, and along with other factors such as declining house prices in key markets, and a contracting Australian workforce compared to earlier this year, has steadily increased the pressure on average Australians,” Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said.
MORE: Incredible mortgage shift is a rare warning sign for the RBA
The company is tipping a rate rise on Tuesday, and again in December, which it says will take households at risk of mortgage stress to 34.3 per cent.
“If this were to happen, the level of mortgage stress would be at its highest rate since June 2008 over 18 years ago,” Levine said.
The number of households at risk of mortgage stress has surged. · Roy Morgan
While mortgage holders in arrears have only just begun to edge up on the loan books of the big banks, brokers are reporting an increasing number of clients turning to other strategies to keep monthly repayment down like refinancing and stretching the loan back out to a fresh 30-year-term while APRA data also shows interest only lending on the rise.
CBA, ANZ, Westpac and NAB united in November rate call: ‘The real question’
Following the latest inflation data on Wednesday, all four major lenders are now expecting the RBA to increase interest rates on Tuesday.
The Commonwealth Bank previously thought we had hit the likely peak of the hiking cycle, but now thinks another rate rise in December can’t be ruled out.
NAB also changed its position to now expect the cash rate to be pushed up to 4.85 per cent this week.
ANZ was already tipping a November rate rise with the bank’s economists on Friday saying “the real question isn’t next week’s RBA Board decision but what happens at the December and February meetings”.
There is a “material risk that the cash rate reaches 5.10 per cent in either December or February,” the ANZ economists said.
Meanwhile Westpac’s chief economist and former RBA member Luci Ellis said the bank reaffirmed its expectation of an increase on Tuesday.
New Zealand’s central bank shocked markets on Wednesday by keeping rates steady at 2.75 per cent. But very few are backing a similar surprise for Aussie borrowers.
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