AI is everywhere in 2026, so let’s put it to the ultimate test and see if it can successfully predict a winner in one of the most notoriously difficult betting races of the year, the Melbourne Cup.

As part of the experiment we’ve provided an identical prompt (see below) to three different AI engines.

There’s plenty of overlap in the top five selections and curiously all three have arrived at the same likely winner, however their confidence levels in that prediction vary significantly.

Will any nail the final result?

We’ll have the answer by about 3:05pm on Tuesday afternoon, Melbourne time. Giddy up.

AI PROMPT:

Review the top five finishers from every Melbourne Cup held since 1975 and look for patterns to determine a predicted top five for the 2026 Melbourne Cup. Consider factors such as lead-up form and races, historical form, race distances, barriers, horse ages, track performances, breeding, handicaps and weight penalties, betting moves, trainers, tactical speed maps and any other variables that provide relevant insights to likely performance. Provide a predicted top five in finishing order and explain why. Also rate confidence in the predicted Cup winner with ‘100’ being total confidence and ‘0’ being zero confidence.

MORE MELBOURNE CUP NEWS:

2026 Melbourne Cup AI Predicted Top 5 Claude (Anthropic)Point Of Law (No. 20)Hopewell Rock (No. 12)Trustyourinstinct (No. 2)Juja Kibo (No. 11)Enfjaar (No. 6)

Confidence in the winner: 20/100

Claude says: The Cup is a 24-runner handicap, so even the best-credentialed horse is more likely to lose than win. Point Of Law fits the profile best, but he has had only one run in Australia, has an inexperienced jockey and faces a distance question. A wet track and any scratchings could also reshuffle the order.

Gemini (Google)Point Of Law (No. 20)Trustyourinstinct (No. 2)Middle Earth (No. 4)Sons and Lovers (No. 1)Shockletz (No. 24)

Confidence in the winner: 65/100

Gemini says: While Point of Law ticks almost every historical trend index, a 24-horse field over 3200m with multiple international form lines introduces an inherent degree of volatility. However, the amalgamation of his lightweight handicap, ideal barrier, peak lead-up performance, and the backing of the Ciaron Maher stable provides a historically solid foundation for high confidence.

ChatGPT (Open AI)Point Of Law (No. 20)Trustyourinstinct (No. 2)Juja Kibo (No. 11)Sons and Lovers (No. 1)Hopewell Rock (No. 12)

Confidence in the winner: 23/100

ChatGPT says: The Melbourne Cup is a 24-horse handicap with considerable racing uncertainty. Point Of Law has a relatively limited Australian racing history and two miles presents a different challenge from the Geelong Cup. This analysis gives more confidence in Point Of Law being a competitive contender than in him actually winning the race.