Four players are already qualified: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev. With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of the season, ninth place is the last place in. After Monday’s matches, Cobolli (3,690 points), Arthur Fils (3,535), Frances Tiafoe (3,390) and Jodar (3,234) hold the four remaining places, with Alex de Minaur 10th on 3,170.

Race to Turin after Monday in Paris

#Player Pts
1Alexander Zverev
Qualified · Paris: top seed9,350
2Jannik Sinner
Out for the season7,950
3Carlos Alcaraz
Qualified · Paris: second seed5,110
4Ben Shelton
Qualified · Paris: third seed4,530
5Daniil Medvedev
Qualified · Paris: fourth seed3,820
Qualified: 4 of 8 places
6Flavio Cobolli
Withdrew from Paris3,690
7Arthur Fils
Paris: sixth seed, vs. Tomas Machac3,535
8Frances Tiafoe
Paris: seventh seed, vs. Quentin Halys or Arthur Fery3,390
9Rafael Jodar
Paris: ninth seed, beat Alejandro Tabilo, vs. Casper Ruud3,234
Last place in: 9th
10Alex de Minaur
Paris: eighth seed, vs. Andrey Rublev or Tomas Martin Etcheverry3,170
11Novak Djokovic
Paris: 10th seed, vs. Valentin Vacherot2,900
12Taylor Fritz
Paris: 11th seed, vs. Benjamin Bonzi2,860
13Tommy Paul
Paris: 12th seed, vs. Holger Rune2,735
15Jiri Lehecka
Paris: vs. Alex Michelsen2,540

PIF ATP Live Race to Turin, points since Jan. 1, after Monday’s matches. Sinner is out for the season, so ninth place is the last place in. Cobolli withdrew from Paris and stays on 3,690. Mensik (14th, 2,550) and Auger-Aliassime (16th, 2,490) are not in the Paris draw. Davidovich Fokina is outside the top 16.

Cobolli’s place in Turin now in the others’ hands

Cobolli, who retired in tears against Matteo Berrettini in Vienna last Thursday, trailing 5-2 in the first set, was the best placed of the contenders. A run to the quarter-finals would have guaranteed his first qualification, in his home country.

He will now miss Turin only if four players pass him this week. Fils would overtake him by reaching the quarter-finals (3,725 points), Tiafoe the semi-finals (3,780), Jodar and de Minaur the final (3,834 and 3,810), and Djokovic, Fritz and Paul the title.

His withdrawal also lowers the bar for the two men just behind him. Fils now needs the quarter-finals to make sure of his place, rather than the semi-finals, and Tiafoe the semi-finals, rather than the final.

What each contender needs in Paris

PlayerStill alive if he reachesSure of Turin if he reaches
Flavio CobolliWithdrawn, stays on 3,690Out only if four players pass him
Arthur FilsAlready aliveQuarter-finals
Frances TiafoeAlready aliveSemi-finals
Rafael JodarAlready aliveFinal
Alex de MinaurThird round (must win his first match); quarter-finals if Jodar beats RuudFinal
Novak DjokovicSemi-finalsThe title
Taylor FritzSemi-finals; final if Jodar beats RuudThe title
Tommy PaulFinalThe title
Jiri LeheckaThe titleNot even with the title
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaThe titleNot even with the title

“Sure of Turin”: qualified whatever the other results, given the Paris draw. Calculated from the official ATP totals and the points for each round. A tie on points is treated as not sure.

Jodar 64 points clear of de Minaur before facing Ruud

Jodar, who entered the top 10 on Monday, hit 24 winners against Tabilo. His next opponent, Ruud, beat Argentine qualifier Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3, 6-2 on Monday without facing a break point.

A win over Ruud would take Jodar to 3,284 points, more than de Minaur can reach with his first win (3,260). De Minaur, who had a first-round bye and faces Andrey Rublev or Tomas Martin Etcheverry, would then need the quarter-finals to pass him.

Cobolli’s withdrawal has also changed Jodar’s section. Instead of the Italian, he would meet lucky loser Thiago Agustin Tirante, Jan-Lennard Struff or French wildcard Arthur Gea in the third round, for a place in the quarter-finals.

Five contenders face elimination on Tuesday in Paris

Djokovic, Fritz, Paul, Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina cannot afford to lose on Tuesday. A first-match defeat would leave each of them on 2,900 points or fewer, below Jodar’s current total, with Cobolli, Fils and Tiafoe also out of reach.

Tuesday’s order of play puts Davidovich Fokina second on Court Central, against French wildcard Moise Kouame, the Brest champion. Djokovic follows against Valentin Vacherot, who beat Lehecka 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the Basel final on Sunday.

On Court 1, Paul faces Holger Rune, the 2022 champion, before Fritz plays qualifier Benjamin Bonzi, not before 3:30 pm. Lehecka meets Alex Michelsen on Court 2, not before 3 pm.

Djokovic needs at least the semi-finals to stay in contention, and only the title would make sure of his place. Fritz is in the same position, but would need the final if Jodar beats Ruud. Paul needs at least the final, while Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina can only hope with the title, and even that would depend on the others’ results.

Fils, Tiafoe and de Minaur, who all had first-round byes, are not on Tuesday’s schedule. Fils will face qualifier Tomas Machac, and Tiafoe the winner of Tuesday’s match between Quentin Halys and Arthur Fery.

The draw has put three pairs of contenders in the same section, with a possible meeting in the third round: Djokovic against de Minaur, Paul against Tiafoe and Fritz against Fils. Djokovic, Paul and Fritz need two wins to get there, de Minaur, Tiafoe and Fils one. Jodar and de Minaur are in opposite halves and can only meet in the final.

Race totals by round reached in Paris

PlayerNowR16QFSFFW
Fils3,5353,6253,7253,9254,1754,525
Tiafoe3,3903,4803,5803,7804,0304,380
Jodar3,2343,2843,3843,5843,8344,184
de Minaur3,1703,2603,3603,5603,8104,160
Djokovic2,9002,9903,0903,2903,5403,890
Fritz2,8602,9503,0503,2503,5003,850
Paul2,7352,8252,9253,1253,3753,725
Lehecka2,5402,6302,7302,9303,1803,530

“Now”: current total, kept with a defeat in his next match. R16, QF, SF, F: total if he reaches that round. W: total with the title. Djokovic, Fritz, Paul and Lehecka need two wins to reach the R16; Jodar, Fils, Tiafoe and de Minaur one. Cobolli, who withdrew, stays on 3,690.