No, he was not the reason, but he was a significant reason.
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Jeremy Howe’s absence has been more profound, but Hill has been critical because they have no player like him. He has been so sorely missed because Collingwood’s tall forwards – Dan McStay, Brodie Mihocek and Tim Membrey – have been inconsistent or down on form.
Much is expected of Jamie Elliott, and he largely delivers. His omission from the All-Australian team remains a head scratcher, but that was lost amid the other contentious decisions on the night: Jeremy Cameron captaining something for the first time in his life; Nick Daicos being the players’ best player for the year but not good enough to start on the ground in this faux line up; Shaun Mannagh being the oldest young player in football. But Elliott’s omission should not escape attention.
Jack Gunston was preferred over Elliott as a third tall forward. Gunston should undoubtedly have been selected. At 178cm, Elliott, however, must be the shortest tall forward the game has ever seen.
He is 5cm shorter than Zac Bailey, who was chosen as a small forward. Bailey has kicked 33 goals for the year. Elliott 52. Enough said.
Anyway, his AA omission is less consequential than his form in the team that will play the top side on Thursday night.
Elliott will be critical.
When Adelaide beat Collingwood in round 23, they interrupted the Magpies’ 10-match winning streak over them.
Jamie Elliott was in the All-Australian squad of 44 but didn’t make the final team.Credit: Getty Images
Thursday night’s qualifying final is unlikely to resemble that game, given three quarters of it was played in the wet.
Logically, the conditions that night didn’t suit Adelaide’s tall forwards; an edge they have over Collingwood’s under-sized backline.
Yet the Magpies led that game by four goals in the first term before the rain came because the more critical edge to that point was in the midfield and ruck.
Collingwood had 71 inside-50’s to the Crows’ 37 in that game. The weather had a reasonable say in the ball being hard to shift around the ground, and the numbers reflected where the ball lived, rather than the danger and efficiency of forward entries.
But, still, Collingwood failed to profit from the ball being close to goal in the way teams should. Which brings us to the glaring hole left by Hill’s absence.
At the very least, the Magpies should consider him as a sub against the Crows, given doubts over whether he can go the distance.
Of course, this suggestion is based only on what has been said of his fitness and not the degree to which he is on top of the other stuff going on hin his life that has contributed to his absence from the game.
Since these teams played in round 23, Jordan De Goey has gotten better by the week as his match fitness and touch improves. Beau McCreery, too, though he picked up another foot problem in the final round. McCreery’s pace and pressure is as important to Collingwood’s forward mix as anyone.
The Crows will go in favourite, as they should. They have just beaten the Magpies, are playing at home, finished on top of the ladder and will have Max Michalaney, Rory Laird and Luke Pedlar available to them. But Izak Rankine is a significant ommission.
Collingwood, in contrast, enters the finals series with just two wins from their past seven games. A side that was, at one stage this year, 10 points clear on top of the ladder, now looks lucky to be in the top four. But Rankine out, Hill in would change the complexion of this game.
Cats land on their feet at right time
If Collingwood’s two wins in the past seven games is cause for pessimism, it seems perverse to doubt Geelong because they have won all of their past six games but only beaten poor teams.
They have been winning. And they have won well. And Sydney in the back of the season was anything but a poor team, yet the Cats tidied them up by 43 points.
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There are genuine questions (more than concerns) about whether the soft run in gives them an inflated view of themselves. There’s no doubt wins in tougher games would’ve been preferable, but what were the Cats going to do about it? You play who you play.
They have no injuries. Zero. Unless you count Toby Conway, who has played six games in his career and none this year.
Against that, they have lost their past three games against Brisbane, including last year’s preliminary final.
Who will the Cats send their Irish tagging duo, Mark O’Connor and Oisin Mullin to? It’s assumed O’Connor will go to Lachie Neale, leaving Mullin to go to either Dane Zorko or Hugh McLuggage.
Lions stopper Josh Dunkley would presumably go to Max Holmes, but do they also sit on Bailey Smith?
Lachie Neale.Credit: Getty Images
The broader question is of Brisbane and their forward line, which has not been unduly troubled by Joe Daniher’s absence during the season, but will be more searchingly tested in finals. Much will fall on Logan Morris, who has been outstanding and is already a premiership player. But he is just 20 years old and this year he doesn’t have Daniher, or the injured Eric Hipwood as talls to work alongside.
Their next available options appear to be Henry Smith, a second ruck who’s played six games, or honest toiling veteran Sam Day.
Hawthorn’s tall order not as rare as it seems
Hawthorn’s four-tall forward line is unusual in the context of what other teams are doing. It is anything but unusual in the context of what Hawthorn have done.
Tall targets Mitch Lewis. Mabior Chol, Calsher Dear and Jack Gunston have given Hawthorn’s forward line a point of difference.Credit: Getty Images
As Mitch Lewis got closer to his return from injury, the question outside the club revolved around which of their talls would miss out when he returned, given they already had three in the team and some rivals are only playing two.
The oldest of those talls, Jack Gunston, admitted he fell into wondering the same question … until it dawned on him that this was anything but unusual at Hawthorn. Gunston won premierships in a forward line alongside Buddy Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and David Hale. That worked pretty well.
The Hawks tall forwards of 2025 are not of that calibre, but they are a varied blend.
Mabior Chol is quick, likes to get the ball at ground level and plays second ruck. Gunston like to lead into space and mark, and is playing career-best football. Lewis can hit a pack. And Calsher Dear, well, he seems capable of doing everything, so it’s hard yet to work out what his absolute strength is, but suffice to say he has many.
Josh Battle and Jack Gunston were the two Hawthorn players selected in the 2025 All-Australian team last week.Credit: AFL Photos
This is a forward line that will trouble the Giants, even though their defensive pillar Sam Taylor earned another All-Australian nod last week. It is on the ground, particularly with their pesky smalls, where Hawthorn can win the game.
The problem for Hawthorn is their midfield is thin. Without Will Day, opponents can sit on Jai Newcombe and they can be held up, which is also why half-back/wingman Josh Weddle’s potential could be so important for them. He gives them the sort of manic speed and athleticism they need to run back at the Giants, remembering that the Hawks haven’t beaten GWS outside of Tasmania since 2021.
How the Suns can shine
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Gold Coast has made the finals. History made, champagne popped, achievement ticked off.
That mentality is the danger for Damien Hardwick’s team. He will, no doubt, be pushing the idea that this breakthrough will not lead to complacency. On the contrary, his argument will be that making finals will liberate his players. With the finals monkey off their back, he’ll urge them just go out and play.
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