Analysis

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2025?

Bailey Smith and Shaun Mannagh celebrate a goal during Geelong’s clash against Richmond in round 24, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

GEELONG and Fremantle capitalised on easier-than-expected fixtures this season, while Collingwood had a tougher run than anticipated.

After making a preliminary final last year, the Cats were set for a hard run of games in 2025, but instead ended up with the equal fifth-easiest draw, based on every club’s double-ups.

Geelong, which will host Brisbane in a qualifying final after finishing second, met only two of this year’s finalists twice, with double-up matches against Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney, losing all four.

The remainder of the Cats’ double-ups came against St Kilda (who finished 12th), Port Adelaide (13th), Essendon (15th) and Richmond (17th).

Of the six clubs who had the easiest fixtures this year, only one other team – Carlton – played finals in 2024.

The Blues failed to capitalise on the softest run in 2025 as they finished 11th.

Patrick Cripps looks dejected after Carlton’s loss to Brisbane in round 18, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Like Geelong, they only played two finalists twice – Collingwood and Hawthorn – with their double-ups coming against Port, the Bombers, North Melbourne (16th) and West Coast (18th).

The Dockers, who finished sixth, had a strong record against fellow finals sides this year, but they played just one – the Magpies – twice.

At the other end of the scale, the Lions had a brutal run of fixtures on the back of their premiership success.

Chris Fagan’s side ended up playing four finalists twice, and its other two double-ups came against the Western Bulldogs (ninth) and Sydney (10th).

Brisbane players celebrate a win over Hawthorn in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Remarkably, it wasn’t the Lions who ended up with the hardest fixture.

That belonged to last year’s preliminary finalist Port Adelaide, which also had four double-ups against 2025 contenders, including meeting minor premier Adelaide twice.

After missing finals last year, the Pies were unlucky to end up with the third-hardest fixture, having also played four eventual finalists twice.  

West Coast’s hopes of faring better this year weren’t helped by a hard run of games as the Eagles faced three 2025 finalists twice, more than Geelong, Greater Western Sydney and Carlton, who all featured in September last year.  

* The expected degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2024 finishing positions of the teams a club plays twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.

* The actual degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2025 ladder positions of the teams a club played twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.

 
Expected degree of difficulty
Actual degree of difficulty
Difference

West Coast
70
54
Harder by 16

Collingwood
54
43
Harder by 11

Gold Coast
64
55
Harder by 9

Melbourne
73
65
Harder by 8

Port Adelaide
45
38
Harder by 7

St Kilda
58
53
Harder by 5

Hawthorn
50
46
Harder by 4

Richmond
73
70
Harder by 3

North Melbourne
64
62
Harder by 2

Brisbane
41
40
Harder by 1

Western Bulldogs
56
57
Easier by 1

Adelaide
64
66
Easier by 2

Greater Western Sydney
54
58
Easier by 4

Essendon
52
56
Easier by 4

Sydney
47
58
Easier by 11

Carlton
62
74
Easier by 12

Geelong
50
65
Easier by 15

Fremantle
49
66
Easier by 17