The rising salary cap didn’t quite create the sticker shock many expected this summer in the NHL.

Don’t worry, though. It’s coming.

And the Colorado Avalanche, like every other team, will have to deal with it very soon.

Despite a $7.5 million jump in the cap on July 1, the contract market didn’t change a whole lot. Leon Draisaitl signed a deal on Sept. 3, 2024, that makes him the highest-paid player in the league at $14 million a year, $750k more than Auston Matthews’ salary.

It’s a jump, but not a massive one, especially when you compare it to the percentage of the cap each player took up the first year of their deal. For Matthews, it was 15.06% of the Maple Leafs’ cap. For Draisaitl, it’s 14.66%.

If anything, it feels like Draisaitl could have gotten more.

The same thing happened with the winger market. Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner each became the highest-paid wingers in the league over the last few months, as both will make $12 million this coming season. That’s more money than Artemi Panarin, who was previously the highest-paid winger, but both are actually taking up 2% less of the cap in the first year of their deals than Panarin did in the first year of his. 

We haven’t seen the market completely change for high-end players in the NHL — yet. That will change in a big way over the next 10 months.

The two players that will create a trickle-down effect for others in the league are Connor McDavid and Kirill Kaprizov. McDavid, who last week told the media he’s not in a rush to sign a new deal with Edmonton, will almost certainly become the highest-paid player in NHL history (again) on a per-year basis. The length of his new deal remains to be seen, but if he’s not making at least $16 million per-year on his next contract, it would be a major surprise.

Kaprizov is in the same boat, as he will be the player who truly resets the winger market. Minnesota’s owner has already said Kaprizov’s new deal will be the “biggest in NHL ever.” Maybe not the smartest thing for an owner to say during a contract negotiation, but Kaprizov is another guy who could easily break the $16 million barrier.

So how quickly will this impact the Avalanche?

Almost immediately.

Martin Necas is not Kirill Kaprizov. Heck, he’s not Kyle Connor, who also needs a new deal in the next 10 months, as his production has not been as consistent on a year-to-year basis as the Winnipeg winger. But it’s all about slotting everyone in on the market. Kaprizov will reset things, then players like Connor and Panarin will likely slot in below him, and then you get to guys like Necas and Adrian Kempe, who may be the best comparable for Necas.

Kempe is rumored to be asking somewhere in the $10 million range on a per-year basis on his next deal. If the Avalanche could get Necas in that area, they’d be in good shape, but what makes Necas unique among the other players on the market is that he’s far and away the youngest. When his new deal kicks in, he’ll be just 27. The next-closest player to him in this group will be Connor, who will be 29 when his deal kicks in.

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Just looking at age, an extension for Necas means the Avalanche should be getting more bang-for-their-buck in terms of the prime years of his career. Could that also mean it costs a little more than a guy like Kempe? It just might.

Either way, all these wingers are likely waiting for a Kaprizov deal to get done before everything else falls into place. It’s not unlike how the the Broncos had to wait for a Micah Parsons contract before Nick Bonitto’s deal got done.

But the impact of all these big-money NHL deals will really be felt by Colorado the following year. A quick peek at the cap sheet for the Avalanche shows they’re in pretty good shape moving forward. One monster deal looms large, though, and that’s the next contract for Cale Makar.

Makar can’t sign an extension until July 1, 2026. There’s no reason to think it won’t get done, especially when you consider the Avalanche have been planning for it, but it won’t be cheap. If McDavid and Kaprizov break that $16 million barrier, it’s fair to expect Makar to get around the same. Or will he get even more due to the cap going up another $9.5 million the year his deal kicks in?

Regardless of how many zeroes are on the end of Makar’s next deal, he’ll become the highest-paid defenseman in NHL history when he puts pen to paper. The McDavid and Kaprizov deals will give the Avalanche a good idea of what they should expect on a new deal for No. 8.

What I’m hearing

—The folks concerned that Necas isn’t one of the many Avalanche regulars skating at Family Sports right now need to take a deep breath. Europeans are almost always the last ones to show up prior to training camp. Work visas sometimes play a role in that. Artturi Lehkonen and Joel Kiviranta aren’t here, either, and Valeri Nichushkin is usually the last guy to arrive before camp starts.

—Taylor Makar is on the roster sheet for the rookie tournament the weekend of Sept. 12-14, but the Avalanche have already made it clear he won’t be available. It’s believed he’s been rehabbing from a wrist or hand issue, and that’s also why he wasn’t at development camp in July.

What I’m seeing

—The new third jerseys from the Seattle Kraken are awfully slick. The actual players wearing them might not be that fun to watch this year, but at least they’ll look good.

—Ilya Nabokov’s KHL season starts this weekend, as well as Mikhail Gulyayev’s. Considering both will be regulars on the Avalanche 14 months from now, expect consistent updates on them in this column.

What I’m thinking

—Concerns like the one above about Necas’ absence at these informal skates is why we need real hockey to start immediately. Too much over-analyzing. All that really matters is who is there when camp actually starts.

—For as much talk as there was about Colorado’s goaltending being the weak link this time last year, it feels like we aren’t hearing enough about how it’s a strength this year. Sure, Mackenzie Blackwood was inconsistent in his playoff debut, but there’s no reason not to feel good about him as the starter in 2025-26. There are holes on the roster, but good goaltending can mask those in the NHL.