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Q4: 19 mins remaining: Geelong 13.12.90 – Brisbane 9.5.59
The Cats are unable to get the ball straight out of the middle once again. That’s a small win for the Lions.
Max Holmes had 10 disposals in that term and Bailey Smith picked up eight while both booted a goal. Ollie Dempsey has been just as effective to have 22 disposals as well as three goals in signs of how the Cats are outrunning the Lions and opening them up on the outside. Brisbane will have to roll the dice from here as the players get into place for the final term.
Share3QT: Geelong 13.12.90 – Brisbane 9.5.59
Geelong have opened up a commanding lead with two goals in the last minute and a bit. The second comes from Ollie Dempsey throwing out a left boot as the ball bounces just inside the goalline. Dempsey hits it flush on the half volley for his third goal and the Cats have the lead they might have held 30 minutes ago. It has been a hugely impressive performance from the Cats and it will take a huge turn around from the Lions from here. But if any team can do it …
Updated at 07.46 EDT
Q3: 1 min remaining: Geelong 12.12.84 – Brisbane 9.5.59
Geelong strike late as Max Holmes scorches through the middle of the MCG. Holmes can take almost as much ground as he likes as the Cats counterattack but unloads to find Jack Martin charging into the goalsquare for a simple mark and goal.
Updated at 07.45 EDT
Q3: 3 mins remaining: Geelong 11.12.78 – Brisbane 9.5.59
Logan Morris keeps the Lions in it with a strong mark and goal. That comes off the back of swift ball movement from the Lions. There is little point in the Lions changing the way they have been playing at this stage, with a run of goals needed to chase down the Cats.
Q3: 5 mins remaining: Geelong 11.12.78 – Brisbane 8.4.52
Cam Rayner is relishing his part as the villain and he very nearly leans into the role. A stunning snap off the right boot bends too far and through for a behind. That was very nearly the team-lifter that the Lions desperately need.
Q3: 7 mins remaining: Geelong 11.12.78 – Brisbane 8.2.50
Max Holmes is in on it now with a one-two in the centre square and goal from 50m. The margin might only be 28 points but the way this game is heading, the Cats have one foot in a preliminary final.
Updated at 07.35 EDT
Q3: 9 mins remaining: Geelong 10.12.72 – Brisbane 8.2.50
Bailey Smith has had one of his quieter games so far this year. A long goal and a huge celebration brings right into the contest. The Cats are threatening to run away with this now.
Updated at 07.35 EDT
Q3: 11 mins remaining: Geelong 9.12.66 – Brisbane 8.2.50
The Cats are pressing again with the Lions unable to get out of their defence. The visitors continue to pay a heavy price for their commitment to high risk ball movement between the arcs.
Q3: 13 mins remaining: Geelong 9.12.66 – Brisbane 8.2.50
A tense battle brings a series of ball-ups. The Lions seem content with slowing the game down.
Updated at 07.36 EDT
Q3: 15 mins remaining: Geelong 9.12.66 – Brisbane 8.2.50
Mark Blicavs is the unlikely source for a snapped goal off the deck. But apart from a pair of contentious calls going the Lions way, the Cats have made all the running either side of the main break.
But just as the hosts threaten to pull away, up pops Cam Rayner again. A clever one-on-one mark ends with a goal and he lets the Cats cheer squad know all about it.
Updated at 07.37 EDT
Q3: 17 mins remaining: Geelong 8.12.60 – Brisbane 7.2.44
The Lions rush the ball forward and toward a pack deep in the pocket. The Cats are about to clear their lines when a whistle blows… for a too-high free kick that goes their way and sparks loud Bronx cheers.
Q3: 19 mins remaining: Geelong 8.12.60 – Brisbane 7.2.44
The Cats pick up where they left off and win the centre clearance. Shaun Mannagh’s shot from the 50m arc is a floater and is comfortably knocked through for a behind.
The Geelong and Brisbane players are back on the MCG and the second half is about to get under way. Both sides seem to have some upside with Bailey Smith and Max Holmes relatively quiet and the Lions’ pressure and ball movement below their usual lofty standards.
Geelong were on the brink of taking a commanding lead into the main break before Cam Rayner was handed a couple of free kicks in the goal square and slotted both shots.
What’s the verdict on these two decisions?
ShareHT: Geelong 8.11.59 – Brisbane 7.2.44
The Lions stay in touch just as the Cats were threatening to run away after the umpires make a critical intervention on the cusp of the main break. Not ideal but that at least means it is still all to play for in the second half.
Updated at 07.09 EDT
Q2: 1 min remaining: Geelong 8.11.59 – Brisbane 7.2.44
Tom Stewart boots a rare goal after collecting a quick handpass in the centre square to make it four in as many minutes. The Cats get the ball out of the centre bounce yet again and Tyson Stengle lines up for a shot on goal. But the umpire at the very other end of the MCG blows the whistle as Cam Rayner earns the softest of free kicks you are ever likely to see. Rayner goals from a metre out and the Cats respond by knocking him over. That’ll be another of the cheapest free kicks and a second goal in 20 seconds. One minute of frankly horrible umpiring has denied the Cats opening up a decisive lead.
Updated at 06.54 EDT
Q2: 3 mins remaining: Geelong 7.11.53 – Brisbane 5.2.32
Shaun Mannagh again! The Cats win the centre clearance and Mannagh sends a rocket to a leading Jack Bowes. He kicks truly from directly in front. Another for the Cats as they drive out of the centre bounce again. The Lions can’t get their hands on the ball as a quick kick bounces beautifully to land in Dempsey’s hands in the goalsquare. Geelong have booted three goals in as many minutes.
Updated at 06.54 EDT
Q2: 5 mins remaining: Geelong 5.11.41 – Brisbane 5.2.32
Geelong are on the attack but can’t find a target within range of goal. That’s until Shaun Mannagh steps the same Lions defender twice and finds Sam De Koning 30m out. The big Cat hasn’t done much but nails his moment with a deadly-straight the set shot.
Q2: 7 mins remaining: Geelong 4.11.35 – Brisbane 5.2.32
The Cats have slowed down the Lions’ ball movement as the contest turns into an arm wrestle. A ball up deep in the Lions forward line ends up with Josh Dunkley taking a hurried shot at goal but Gryan Miers is on the case to pressure the kick.
Q2: 9 mins remaining: Geelong 4.11.35 – Brisbane 5.1.31
Geelong have resorted to bombing the ball forward which plays right into Harris Andrews’ hands. Or moreso the Lions’ co-captain’s fist as he easily clears the danger.
Q2: 11 mins remaining: Geelong 4.10.34 – Brisbane 5.1.31
Brisbane’s prime movers are prominent now. Lachie Neale has 13 disposals, Jaspa Fletcher 14 and Dayne Zorko 15. The Cats need to find a way to close down the Lions’ steady ball movement to work their way back into the contest.
Q2: 13 mins remaining: Geelong 4.10.34 – Brisbane 5.1.31
Jarrod Berry is showing no signs of the shoulder injury that interrupted his end to the home-and-away season. The rugged winger slams a goal from outside the arc and we have a one-point game. Jeremy Cameron marks near the boundary line on the right side for a left-footer but the key forward doesn’t get under his kick enough and it is rushed through for a behind. Cameron has had seven shots on goal for only two majors so far.
Updated at 06.55 EDT
Q2: 15 mins remaining: Geelong 4.8.32 – Brisbane 4.1.25
The ball is stuck between the arcs as the pressure has ramped up. The Lions have come out to play in the second term and the Cats might regret not making the most of their early advantages.
Q2: 17 mins remaining: Geelong 4.7.31 – Brisbane 4.1.25
Finals footy is in full effective as both sides keep the ball locked in close with a ridiculous number of smothers. “Every smother is worth two kicks”, any local footy coach worth his salt would be thinking right now.
Q2: 19 mins remaining: Geelong 4.6.30 – Brisbane 4.0.24
The second term begins with Kai Lohmann earning a cheap free kick deep in the forward pocket and Tom Stewart looks perplexed. The Cats defender has been penalised for a shove before the ball was even heading into the forward 50. Lohmann brings the Lions closer with a left-foot snap.
Jeremy Cameron threatened to tear the qualifying final apart as a dominant presence in the forward half and particularly in the air. The Cats’ Coleman medallist took five marks among his seven disposals and finished the term with 2.3. Ollie Dempsey was dangerous as a hard-running midfielder while teammate Bailey Smith and Max Holmes had minimal influence. The Cats saved their biggest celebration for Oisin Mullin’s first AFL goal.
The Lions found it particularly hard to move the ball as the Cats shut down their kick-mark game coming out of defence. But they were dangerous when getting the ball forward on the rebound with three goals from seven inside 50s.
ShareQT: Geelong 4.6.30 – Brisbane 3.0.18
A pulsating first term is nothing less than we would expect between these two heavyweights. The Cats might be further in front after having 17-7 inside 50s and 10-3 scoring shots. The Lions need to tidy up their transitions from defence into the centre of the field but will be pleased to still be well within touch.
Q1: 1 min remaining: Geelong 4.6.30 – Brisbane 3.0.18
A tense period of play with neither side giving up ground easily though the Cats have had the better of territory through the first term.
Q1: 3 mins remaining: Geelong 4.6.30 – Brisbane 3.0.18
Oisin Mullin boots his first AFL goal and what a time to do it. A long kick to the top of the goalsquare was always likely to come to ground and Mullin was waiting front and square. A quick snap and the Cats swarm the rugged midfielder. The Cats win the ball from the centre bounce and Jeremy Cameron takes a strong grab but slices his shot from range. Ominous signs though with the Coleman medallist already have 2.3 on the board.
Updated at 06.13 EDT
Q1: 5 mins remaining: Geelong 3.5.23 – Brisbane 3.0.18
Jack Martin has a shot from 45m out and on the wrong side of the boundary line but his long kick is easily rushed through. The behinds are mounting up for the Cats just as they did in their most recent meeting with the Lions that ended in a heavy defeat.
Q1: 7 mins remaining: Geelong 3.4.22 – Brisbane 3.0.18
Kai Lohmann gets on the end of the Lions’ first chain to travel from defence to attack to mark and goal from the goalsquare. The Lions have found it difficult to get out of their back half and past the Cats full-field defence, until quick ball movement with 45 kicks finally finds a way through.
Q1: 9 mins remaining: Geelong 3.3.21 – Brisbane 2.0.12
Risk equals reward! The Lions carve their way through the centre square with a series of under-pressure handballs. Jaspa Fletcher collects just outside the 50m arc and unleashes a sublime drop punt. The Cats win the centre bounce and lock the ball forward again.
Updated at 06.09 EDT
Q1: 11 mins remaining: Geelong 3.3.21 – Brisbane 1.0.6
Jeremy Cameron snaps a goal off his right boot and the Cats are on a roll. The Lions are unable to pick a way out of their back half and Dempsey is once again the first to sprint into space. A long bomb heads toward a two-on-one where Dangerfield holds out a Lions defender for Cameron to take an uncontested mark and clever goal.
Q1: 13 mins remaining: Geelong 2.2.14 – Brisbane 1.0.6
The Cats are slicing through the Lions defence as Patrick Dangerfield leads into space 40m out near the boundary line. The Geelong skipper hooks his shot and the ball is rushed through for a behind.
Q1: 15 mins remaining: Geelong 2.1.13 – Brisbane 1.0.6
Ollie Dempsey kicks truly from just inside 50m and the Cats have been deadly finding teammates inside the arc. Jeremy Cameron marks on the lead then picks out the hard-running Dempsey charging into space within range.
Q1: 17 mins remaining: Geelong 1.1.7 – Brisbane 1.0.6
Jeremy Cameron makes amends immediately to boot Geelong’s opening goal. The Cats were set up to close down the Lions’ kick-mark move out of defence with Brad Close a key to the turnover and Tyson Stengle chipping a 45m pass off the outside of his boot to find Cameron alone next to the goalsquare.
Updated at 06.09 EDT
Q1: 17 mins remaining: Geelong 0.1.1 – Brisbane 1.0.6
Jeremy Cameron marks strongly in front of a pack deep in the Cats’ forward line. But the Coleman medallist hooks the shot off his left boot.
Q1: 19 mins remaining: Geelong 0.0.0 – Brisbane 1.0.6
Charlie Cameron boots the opening goal from the goalline. The Lions turn the ball over at half-back and move the ball swiftly to reach Cameron charging into the forward 50 all on his own.
Updated at 06.10 EDT
First bounce
Rival rucks Mark Blicavs and Darcy Fort lock horns at the centre bounce as the AFL qualifying final gets under way at the MCG. Lachie Neale starts on the bench, Josh Dunkley goes straight to Patrick Dangerfield.
Geelong and Brisbane players line up for the Welcome to Country and national anthem at the MCG. Both sides should be familiar with the formalities with this the Cats’ 19th finals series in 22 years, and the Lions’ seventh in a row.
Patrick Dangerfield leads the Cats out. Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAPShare
Updated at 05.39 EDT
Last time they met: Brisbane did the double over Geelong this year with their most recent victory coming by 41 points in a game that the Cats will want to have washed from their memory. In Patrick Dangerfield’s 350th match, the Lions spoiled the party and broke a hoodoo at GMHBA Stadium that stretched back to 2003. Young key forward Logan Morris booted five goals and again looms as critical to the reigning premiers’ fortunes tonight at the MCG.
Brisbane also have a milestone man at the MCG with one of the heroes of their grand final triumph last year – Kai Lohmann – reaching 50 games.
Max Holmes was a costly loss to injury for Geelong as Brisbane edged them in last year’s preliminary final. The speedster has bounced back to have a superb season and will be out to make amends in his 100th game.
Lawson Humphries was overlooked in two drafts before being taken by Geelong with the second last pick in 2023. Now he’s a mainstay for a premiership contender, studies anthropology at university, is said to be “mature beyond his years” and teaches AFL teammates about his people and culture.
Jack Snape finds out more about the multi-talented 22-year-old with connections to the Nyul Nyul, Oomiday, Worrora, Jaru and Nimanburu peoples in the Kimberley region in Western Australia.
The first pieces of the 2025 AFL finals puzzle have already been laid out. Collingwood stared down a nervy Adelaide as well as a hostile crowd to clinch a 24-point victory and a ticket to a home preliminary final in a couple of weeks. Jonathan Horn was at Adelaide Oval to catch all the action
To bolster their travelling army, Collingwood chartered four buses at subsidised rates. Anticipation and optimism often ensure a raucous outbound journey. But the win is crucial for the return trip. Those four buses turned around and drove all through the night and are probably lobbing at Southern Cross station as you read this. Collingwood has had four finals in Adelaide and they’ve won them all – a club and a team that relishes being the hunter and the hated.
This pair of AFL heavyweights boast two of the strongest midfields in the competition. That has admittedly been the case for several years, though this season the Cats have been bolstered by the addition of Bailey Smith playing alongside another tireless speedster in Max Holmes.
Smith’s stellar form coming off an ACL injury has been something of a surprise but not nearly as much of a shock as his openness while accepting his first All-Australian blazer, when he revealed that he spent four weeks in a psychiatric ward last year. Jack Snape found it is the sort of honesty that has helped Smith and his new teammates connect on and off the field.
Here are the two lineups as named:
GEELONG
B: Zach Guthrie, Jack Henry, Connor O’Sullivan
HB: Lawson Humphries, Tom Stewart, Oisin Mullin
C: Mark Blicavs, Max Holmes, Oliver Dempsey
HF: Brad Close, Shaun Mannagh, Tyson Stengle
F: Shannon Neale, Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield
FOLL: Sam De Koning, Bailey Smith, Tom Atkins
I/C: Mark O’Connor, Gryan Miers, Jack Bowes, Jack Martin
Sub: Jhye Clark
BRISBANE
B: Dayne Zorko, Darcy Gardiner, Ryan Lester
HB: Darcy Wilmot, Harris Andrews, Brandon Starcevich
C: Hugh McCluggage, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry
HF: Charlie Cameron, Sam Day, Zac Bailey
F: Cam Rayner, Logan Morris, Callum Ah Chee
FOLL: Darcy Fort, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft
I/C: Kai Lohmann, Jaspa Fletcher, Levi Ashcroft, Ty Gallop
Sub: Sam Marshall
Final teams are in with no late changes. Geelong like to hold their cards close to their chest but made their moves earlier this time with the loss of Rhys Stanley to a hamstring injury, while Brisbane have recalled dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale.
Geelong name Jhye Clark as starting sub and Sam Marshall is Brisbane’s 23rd player.
The Cats will turn to Sam De Koning and Mark Blicavs as their rucks in place of Stanley. Tagger Mark O’Connor returns to take on the Lions’ decorated midfield and Jhye Clark has been backed to play his eighth game of the season as the stakes rise. Mitch Knevitt and Jed Bews make way.
Tough as nails winger Jarrod Berry is back for the Lions alongside Neale after shrugging off a shoulder injury with Bruce Reville and James Tunstill missing out.
SharePreamble
Martin Pegan
Hello and welcome to live coverage of the qualifying final between Geelong and Brisbane at the MCG. The AFL heavyweights are well-acquainted at this time of year, with this the fourth final they have played against each other in the past five seasons. It isn’t too hard to see a path where they make it five finals clashes in as many years and meet again in this season’s decider.
The previous three finals were even more important with a spot in the grand final up for grabs. This time the focus will be on taking a huge step toward that same stage again, with the winner tonight to have another weekend off and then host a preliminary final. The loser will face a do-or-die semi-final against Fremantle or Gold Coast, and hope to meet Collingwood a week after that.
The Cats are on a six-match winning streak after easing through the run home against sides that finished in the lower half of the ladder. If health truly is wealth at this time of year then the Cats could hardly be any richer, with only Rhys Stanley and long-term project ruck Toby Conway unavailable this week. But two of their six defeats this year have come against Brisbane, who also beat Geelong in a preliminary final classic last year.
The Lions have had an up and down season with their best being as good as any side has produced while they have also suffered a couple of unusually heavy defeats. Their 16 wins and a draw is a better record than they managed when they finished fifth but went on to win the premiership last year, even as they were handed a horror fixture this season. And ending the home-and-away season with seven wins from nine matches, with the first victory in that streak coming against the Cats, suggests the reigning premiers are primed for another big September.
First bounce will be at 7.40pm in Melbourne / AEST. I’ll drop in the team news shortly. But let us know your thoughts and predictions – shoot me an email or find me @martinpegan on Bluesky or X. Let’s get into it!